Can you smell it? No, it’s not the leftover ham from Easter, it’s baseball season. Despite the shady forecast for Opening Day, baseball is actually here.
Fans in Pittsburgh know baseball. Don’t let them fool you. Despite 20 straight losing seasons, the fans are passionate. They wouldn’t rip the team, call into talk shows or say ‘they are done’ if they didn’t care about the game or the team. They’ve also seen what success can look like.
Now I’m not going to go into it, but you know about the collapse part 1 and part 2 of the last two seasons.
Should fans buy into the team this year? Will 2013 be the year that the streak is finally snapped, or will it turn 21 come October?
As the saying goes, it’s the reason they play the game. The fact is, no one will know how this team will do. That being said, myself, Jon Pennline and Matt Shetler will give our take on the upcoming season.
Michael Waterloo –
It’s hard to say what this team will look like. There is so much promise, yet, so many questions. The biggest concern right now is the rotation. Jeff Karstens (go figure), Francisco Liriano and Charlie Morton are all on the disabled list. That makes the de facto No. 4 and No. 5 pitchers in the rotation Jonathan Sanchez and Jeff Locke respectively.
Seriously?
No disrespect to either guy – I like Locke – but no rotation in baseball would feel safe with either guy in the rotation.
This, of course, brings up the question of whether or not the Pirates should have had Gerrit Cole start the year with the big league team. The answer is a definite no. Three months of Cole now, or an extra year of him in 2019? Not just the arbitration reasons, but he has work to do. I talked with Pirates catcher Tony Sanchez last week and he told me that Cole still has work to do on his mechanics. A few months in Indy won’t hurt him.
Another concern for the Pirates is the bullpen. While Jared Hughes and Tony Watson are known commodities, they’re surrounded by others who aren’t so proven. Mark Melancon bombed in his audition last year with the Red Sox, Jeanmar Gomez, Chris Leroux and Justin Wilson are relatively unproven. The main focus – despite being an overvalued position – is Jason Grilli. Can the 36-year-old who never closed before fill the shoes of All-Star closer Joel Hanrahan?
Perhaps the bigger question is if he fails to impress in the closer’s role, who do the Pirates turn to then?
I like the lineup a lot more than I did last year. While Andrew McCutchen is a star, he will regress slightly. A healthy Neil Walker and Travis Snider, as well as a full season of Starling Marte will help a lot.
The bench, once again, isn’t anything to brag about. Michael McKenry is a very valuable backup catcher and Jose Tabata came into camp in shape and mentally focused. I expect a big year from him in relief duties. While John McDonald and Brandon Inge have recognizable names, so did Matt Diaz, Ryan Church and Bobby Crosby.
Who can you actually look at and say, “Ok, we can trust this guy to come through with a big at bat?”
My point exactly.
With all this being said, I expect the Pirates to have a more balanced year instead of shooting to the top only to sink beside the Titanic (and the Flyers) in the Atlantic Ocean. Unless A.J. Burnett can duplicate last season’s success (he won’t) and James McDonald can turn into a Cy Young candidate like he was in the first half of the season last year (he won’t), then chalk up year 21. I have the Pirates finishing at 77-85.
As for a breakout player, I’m very high on Clint Barmes this year. Yes, I know what I saw last year. He was dreadful at times. In the second half, though, he hit .257, cut down on his strikeouts and quadrupled his walks from 4 to 16.
As far as team MVP, it’s going to go to Cutch once again.
Jon Pennline –
I just don’t think this team got any better from last year. AJ Burnett is a year older and close to retirement, Wandy Rodriguez is mediocre, at best, and James McDonald is too inconsistent to stand up as a three starter. Gerrit Cole will be exciting to watch when he makes his debut later in the season, but the starting pitching should take a step back as a whole.
The bullpen is going to be a question due to Hanrahan’s departure. Can Jason Grilli pitch effectively as a closer? Can he stay healthy? Neal Huntington’s biggest strength has been putting together bullpens.
The lineup will be a question mark throughout the season. I expect Andrew McCutchen’s average to drop a little, with the power numbers remaining the same (roughly 30 homers). He still doesn’t know how to steal bases and that part of his game seems to be fading every year. Meanwhile, Pedro Alvarez should continue to produce big time power with a huge quantity of strikeouts. Starling Marte will probably struggle due to poor discipline at the plate, but he’s still one of the most exciting players to see live.
There’s a lot of optimism for the Pirates this season but that’s nothing new. When you look at this team on paper, they look pretty average. The rotation took a step down while the lineup may improve only slightly. Combine all these factors with the hardest first 40 games in the league, and series against the Angels and Rangers, and I just dont see this team breaking the streak.
My prediction is the Pirates will finish 71-91.
Breakout player: Gaby Sanchez
Team MVP: Pedro Alvarez
Matt Shetler –
There’s no better calendar day than Opening Day. Everyone has hope as the calendar turns to April and for the Pittsburgh Pirates, that means the opportunity to put an end to a two-decade long losing streak.
However it may not be that easy for the 2013 Bucs.
After witnessing a second consecutive collapse in 2012, realistically Pirates general manager Neal Huntington did to add to this team was to sign a .211 hitter (Russell Martin), and starter with a 5.34 ERA (Francisco Liriano). He also acquired a reliever with an ERA over six (Mark Melancon) and a pair of aging utility players (John McDonald and Brandon Inge).
Truth be told, I like some of the moves Huntington made, but these Pirates have a lot of questions surrounding them heading into the season.
For the streak to break, a lot of things will have to fall into place and unfortunately I don’t believe that will happen.
Predictions
Final Record- 75-87: Unfortunately, I see the Bucs taking a slight step back this season. I just don’t see how they are better than last year’s team. The starting rotation is filled with question marks and the bench is one of the worst in baseball.
In addition, although I agree with the Joel Hanrahan trade, the Pirates did not lose a game last year in which they had the lead after seven innings until the final week of the season. Like it or not, that was a weapon- one they don’t have this season.
MVP- Andrew McCutchen: It’s quite simple, Cutch will continue to take the next step into superstardom.
Breakout player- Starling Marte: I think Pedro Alvarez breaks out with a huge 2103 season, but you can make the case that he broke out last season. I also think Gerrit Cole will make an impact on the Pirates rotation this season, but for me, Marte is a serious breakout candidate. I don’t like him hitting leadoff, but he has all the tools and coming off of a strong spring, Marte could hit 15-20 homers and steal 30-plus bases.
Photo Credits: Getty Images
