Let’s get meta for just a quick second. When you start writing about sports, and I’m talking specifically about baseball here, you quickly realize there is always someone smarter than you.
One such person is Dan Szymborski, ESPN baseball analyst and creator of a proprietary projection system called ‘ZiPS.” Hosted over at Fangrahps, ZiPS takes into account many different factors when forecasting future playoff performance. Chief among them is prior performance set against comparable players throughout baseball history. Of course, that is just a feeble attempt at oversimplifying a concept that is very rich with detail. I highly recommend reading more about the system and its use.
Today we will put the 2016 Pittsburgh Pirates ZiPS projections under the microscope, with a focus on identifying several surprises in the forest of statistics.
Andrew McCutchen’s On-Base Percentage
Andrew McCutchen is many things to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Serving as both a key run-creator and chief run-producer, McCutchen’s value to the team is derived from the ability to both drive runs in and score his share of runs through a consistently strong on-base percentage. McCutchen’s .OBP has been at least .400 or greater in each of the last four seasons. This includes a .410 clip in 2014 – a figure that led all of the National League.
ZiPS has McCutchen’s .OBP projected at .392 for 2016. Although it may seem like arbitrary to label a .008 decrease as a ‘surprise,’ the peripherals that lead to that number contain even more surprises. ZiPS also has McCutchen slated for an 18.1 percent strikeout rate, which would represent an improvement of over five percent from his 2015 tally. With static plate appearances predicted for ’16, this prediction may be a function of the current question marks behind McCutchen rather than any specific factor in his performance. With no clear-cut cleanup hitter currently on the roster, pitchers will likely be less heistant to attack McCutchen.
No Pittsburgh Pirates starter will end with 200 IP.
Other than a mid-summer injury to an aging A.J. Burnett and Charlie Morton starting the year on the DL, the Pirates rotation remained pretty healthy overall 2015. Despite their relative health, no pitcher other than Gerrit Cole topped 200 innings pitched, with the youngster leading the way with 208 frames.
The 2016 ZiPS projections find no Pirates starter pitching more than 190 innings, with that high-water mark belonging to Cole. Of all the projections in ZiPS and other models, this may just be the hardest one to identify. There are many factors determining how many innings a pitcher may pitch during a season. Game situations, effectiveness and health are but a few.
It is still surprising to see that ZiPS does not project a “workhorse” in the traditional sense within the Pirates rotation as it is currently constructed. This is not necessarily a concern – the Pirates approach to resting players clearly was a factor in a 98-win season – but for a team that relied on a historic bullpen season in 2015, it would behoove their starting pitching to last longer into games. Even factoring in normal regression without bringing up the obvious question marks, the bullpen may not be as much of a weapon as it was last year.
Starling Marte takes a step back
In 2015, Starling Marte matured into a budding star. Posting a third consecutive 5+ WAR (Wins above replacement) season, Marte took considerable strides at the plate. For his efforts, he was rewarded with a .287/.337/.444 triple-slash line to go along with 19 home runs and 81 RBI – both of which were career highs.
ZiPS tempers expectations for Marte by forecasting a step backwards. Slated for 17 home runs, 69 RBI and a .278/.334/.444 slash. The batting line is eerily similar to his 2014 output while the run production totals aren’t very far off. For a player who has shown steady progress in each full year in the majors, this feels like a step back. This is underscored by his walk and strikeout rates remaining nearly identical year-over-year. Marte drew free passes at a 4.2 percent clip in ’15 and is projected for a 4.8 percent figure in ’16. He worked to improve his patience last year and was rewarded with a 21.2 percent strikeout rate. This year ZiPS has him set for 21.9 percent, a slight increase.
Much like McCutchen’s projections, Marte’s figures may be projected to backslide due simply to the many unknowns in the Pirates’ every day lineup. Even before addressing Jung Ho Kang’s return date, the team is now without a true power threat and remains in flux after losing a major cog in Neil Walker. Those questions may need to be answered before we can truly feel comfortable with these projections.
Nevertheless, the ZiPS figures remain an interesting and often-accurate preview of upcoming performance from the team’s current personnel.
Much like its real-life counterpart, the 2016 Pittsburgh Pirates as defined by ZiPS contain many surprises and unanswered questions.
You can view the entire projections over at Fangraphs.
