As I sit here writing, Pittsburgh Pirates’ general manager Neal Huntington has around eight hours remaining to figure out exactly what he wants to do in order to shape this team for the stretch run.
Any trade deadline is a great day for sports fans, but especially baseball’s trade deadline.
It’s easy to say just pull the trigger and add a guy like Jon Lester, but put yourself in Huntington’s shoes for a minute. Do you mortgage parts of your future for a guy you are going to only have for two months or do you go for it?
While adding Lester likely makes the Pirates the favorites in the National League Central, it is the type of move that Huntington has wisely stayed away from in the past. It just doesn’t make a lot of sense to give up highly touted prospects that the team can control for six years for a two month rental, even a high profile rental such as Lester.
However then there is the other side of the coin in which many baseball purists subscribe to the theory that you acquire prospects in order to trade them.
If the Pirates fail to acquire Lester, the masses will come out and call the team cheap. That is not the case at all. The Pirates have shown over the past three years that they have been willing to add payroll at the deadline and they are willing to do so this season as well.
A deal has to make baseball sense though, not only this season, but for the future as well.
Huntington has a lot to weigh over the next eight hours and here is how I see things going down.
Lester won’t be coming to Pittsburgh, but it won’t be for a lack of trying.
Huntington isn’t going to overpay for Lester, nor are the Red Sox going to give him away for free. That being said, I expect the Pirates to be in on him up until the last minute, but ultimately he ends up elsewhere.
Unfortunately they run the risk of Lester landing with a team that the Pirates will be competing for a playoff spot with and that is the risk Huntington is taking here if he doesn’t pull the trigger.
I also expect the Pirates to be heavily involved in talks today for San Diego Padres starter Ian Kennedy, who I actually prefer over Lester since he is signed at a reasonable figure for next season.
The sad part though is that because of that the asking price is going to be just as high and Kennedy won’t be coming to Pittsburgh either. Neither will Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee or any other frontline starter that will be talked about today.
That doesn’t mean that Huntington won’t be active.
I expect him to add a bullpen arm, likely a left-handed reliever like Boston’s Andrew Miller.
If Huntington doesn’t land Miller though, or a right-hander like Joaquin Benoit, I still expect him to add bullpen help elsewhere.
I also wouldn’t rule out a bench bat, likely an infielder that can come off the bench and get Michael Martinez off the big league roster.
My prediction is the Pirates roll with what they have, which isn’t the popular opinion among Pirates fans. But if I am Huntington I am not mortgaging any part of the future to overpay for anything today. If I can get a deal done for some mid-level prospects then fine, but that seems doubtful in trying to add a major piece.
The second wild card spot has really limited the amount of guys teams have made available as so many more teams feel they are still in it than in years past.
Huntington will make a couple of minor deals to strengthen the bullpen and the bench, but I would be shocked if they ultimately land a guy like Lester.
And there is nothing wrong with that approach.
I also expect him to be active after today, possibly adding another piece in August, similar to the fashion in which he added Marlon Byrd and Justin Morneau a season ago.
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