With combined records of just 2-6, the Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) and Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4) have not started their respective seasons on much of a positive note. At Jacksonville’s EverBank Field on Sunday, the Steelers will try to bounce back from a 27-24 loss to the winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers, while the Jaguars are not only trying to get in the win column, but simply compete in a game. Gus Bradley’s team has not recovered from blowing a Week 1 lead at Philadelphia, losing that game by 17 and each game thereafter by no less than 27 points.
Jacksonville has allowed an average of 38 points per game, while scoring just 14.5 on offense. Only Oakland joins the Jaguars with zeroes in the win column, only Oakland and St. Louis have scored fewer points, and no team has allowed more points than the Jaguars (156). Bradley has already replaced Chad Henne at quarterback with rookie and number three draft pick Blake Bortles, who has been solid so far with a 70.5 percent completion rate, 477 yards and three touchdowns in two games. However, he has four interceptions already, putting the pressure on the Steelers defense to meet expectations and force him into trouble.
Pittsburgh has been largely unable to force many mistakes by the opposition, forcing just three turnovers and placing in the bottom ten with a minus-2 margin in that category. They may have the advantage in this Week 5 matchup though, as Jacksonville is tied for last with a minus-5 turnover margin, having only three takeaways as well. Veteran QB Ben Roethlisberger will have a distinct advantage over Bortles and will also be motivated by his team’s loss to a previously winless Tampa Bay team, at home no less. The Steelers and a disappointed fan base will expect a bounce-back win and a winning record through five games.
Roethlisberger will get to throw against the league’s worst pass defense, which is allowing 320.8 yards per game. Jacksonville’s rush defense is not much better, ranking 25th overall. Conversely, the Jaguar rushing attack ranks 30th in the league, averaging under 70 yards per game. Toby Gerhart is the team’s leading rusher with just 114 yards on 44 carries (2.6 yards per carry). If this team has a strength, it is a young and talented receiving corps for Bortles to work with. Two second-round draft picks, Marqise Lee (USC) and Allen Robinson (Penn State), have joined Cecil Shorts III and another rookie, Allen Hurns (Miami – FL) to begin building what can be a formidable air attack against a struggling Steelers secondary.
Lee and Shorts, unfortunately for the Jaguars, are going to miss this game due to injury, further diminishing this team’s chances of keeping up with a Steelers offense that should put up quite a few points. Pittsburgh’s running game ranks fifth in the NFL, led by Le’Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount. Antonio Brown remains Roethlisberger’s top target in an 8th-ranked passing game. Offensive coordinator Todd Haley’s unit ranks highly in both the run and the pass, but has found it difficult at times to get into the end zone, often settling for field goals. Also, a conservative approach late in a close game last week resulted in setting up the defense for failure against the Buccaneers.
Out for the Steelers again will be CB Ike Taylor and rookie LB Ryan Shazier. Jaguars tight end Mickey Shuler will join Shorts and Lee among those hurt for the Jacksonville offense. The Jaguars host just their second home game of the season, where they are 0-1 after a Week 3 loss to Indianapolis. Pittsburgh is 1-1 on the road, coming off a Week 3 win at Carolina. The Steelers last lost to Jacksonville in a 2008 home Wild Card playoff loss, but have won the last two meetings.
When: Sunday, October 5, 2014 – 1:00 pm EST
Where: EverBank Field – Jacksonville, FL
Watch: CBS (Spero Dedes, Solomon Wilcots)
Spread: Steelers -7 (via Bovada)
Last Meeting: Steelers defeated Jaguars 17-13 at Pittsburgh in 2010
Keys for Pittsburgh:
1) Be selfish and force turnovers all day long. The Steelers must protect the ball themselves, not giving Jacksonville any chances to start in good field position or gain an early lead. On the other side of the ball, make Bortles and his teammates uncomfortable and force the inevitable errors that will be made throughout the course of the game, and take full advantage.
2) Be disciplined…the penalties have been ridiculous and Mike Tomlin knows that. Averaging 11 flags against them per game so far, the Steelers rank second in that category behind only San Francisco. Enough is enough.
3) Go for the big play early…let Brown and Bell loose and bury this team early. The longer Jacksonville is allowed to think they are in the game, the more vulnerable the Steelers secondary will be against Bortles, Hurns and Robinson.
Keys for Jacksonville:
1) Copycat the Buccaneers gameplan. Attack through the air and let Bortles fly…what do you have to lose at this point?
2) Get under the skin of the Steelers and put them on their heels. It is an undisciplined and wavering opponent that can fall apart, especially if they fall behind to another winless team.
3) Just like the Steelers, giveaways and lack of takeaways have been a killer early on. Jacksonville will likely give up at least a couple in this game, so forcing Pittsburgh into some as well will be the only way to keep it close.
Prediction: I have been just 1-3 on the picks so far this season, so take this for what it’s worth. This, on paper, should be among the easiest games to pick on the Steelers schedule this year. That being said, I cannot figure this team out and certainly never know what to expect. Still, this Jaguars team is bad and this game should result in a Steelers win, 34-14.
