What a difference a week can make.
After an impressive win against the Baltimore Ravens extended the Steelers winning streak to three, and placed them control of their destiny in the tough AFC North, the Steelers did what they seem to do way too often.
They played down to inferior competition.
That’s exactly what happened in what can only be categorized as an incredibly disappointing 20-13 loss to the 1-8 New York Jets this past Sunday. Couple this performance with the inexplicable home loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Steelers have losses to two of the three worst teams in the NFL in terms of overall record. Only the winless Oakland Raiders own a worse record.
So in a week, the Steelers have gone from one of the hottest teams in the NFL, in control of their own destiny to claim their first division title since 2010, to a team looking at an uphill climb to win one of the toughest divisions in football. It looks like a tough road to even make the playoffs at this point, considering the fact that 11 of the 16 teams in the AFC have five or more wins after 10 games.
Taking division leaders Cleveland, Denver, New England and Indianapolis out of the equation, there are likely seven teams vying for two Wild Card spots with six games to go. Not exactly an easy path, made all the more difficult thanks to inexcusable losses to the lowly Bucs and Jets.
So what are the expectations for this team after Sunday’s loss?
With six games left, three at home, three on the road, the Steelers will almost certainly need to win four of the next six to get to 10 wins and feel confident in their playoff chances. Clearly making any assumptions about what lies ahead based on the up and down play of the 2014 Steelers is probably fruitless.
However, let’s take a closer look at the remainder of the schedule to see if the Steelers can find a way to right the ship and reach the 10 or more wins likely needed to secure a playoff birth in the AFC.
The first test will be this Monday in Tennessee. The 2-7 Titans have been reeling this season, and come off a 21-7 loss to the Ravens last week. With the Titans looking toward the future, rookie Zach Mettenberger has replaced Jake Locker as the starter at quarterback, and that should help the Steelers cause. The Steelers are 16-2 against rookie QB’s since 2004, and Mettenberger has not exactly drawn comparisons to Andrew Luck thus far.
Add the fact that offensive line coach Mike Munchak knows this team well after being their head coach for three seasons before being fired last year, and it would seem the Steelers have a distinct advantage in this one. We know that was the talk before Tampa and the Jets too, and a loss here would be crippling.
A bye in Week 12 will be followed by a intriguing match up at Heinz with the NFC South leading New Orleans Saints. The Saints have struggled this season and lead the worst division in football with a losing record (4-5). With Drew Brees leading the way, you know the Saints are a dangerous opponent, even with their struggles to win on the road. Add a suspect Saints defense into the equation, and this has the makings of a shootout that could revolve around franchise QB’s Ben Roethlisberger and Brees.
Week 13 will be the first of two games against division rival, the Cincinnati Bengals. The first will be on the road and should help clear out the logjam within the division. We’ll get back to them after looking at Week 14 and 15.
A trip to Atlanta in Week 14 could be a case of playing a “weaker” opponent who could be very dangerous. Only trailing the Saints by a game in the NFC South, the Falcons have an offense capable of putting up big numbers, particularly through the air. Quarterback Matt Ryan and the receiving tandem of Julio Jones and Roddy White are among the league’s best, and until recently have been nearly impossible to beat at home. Much like the Saints, the Falcons have struggled on defense, and this too could mean a high-scoring affair.
Week 15 brings the Kansas City Chiefs to Heinz Field in game that will almost certainly have serious playoff implications. Andy Reid has this team, and quarterback Alex Smith heading in the right direction. With a opportunistic defense and one of the best players in the NFL in Jamaal Charles, the Steelers will need to play quality football to come away with a victory. A win here could not only get them closer to a Wild Card berth, it could set them up for a winner-take-all game to end the season at Heinz Field against the Bengals.
As for those Bengals, the Steelers will have two opportunities to put some separation between themselves and their bitter division rival over the next six weeks. With all four teams in the North very much in contention for the division crown, getting two wins over the Bengals would be huge. Currently the Steelers have a 2-2 divisional record, and going 4-2 could be advantageous in case of tie breakers.
After starting off 3-0, the Bengals have gone 2-3-1 and looked terrible against a banged up Browns squad at home. After looking like one of the better defenses in football the past couple of seasons, the Bengals have regressed badly, and are near the bottom of the NFL in a number of defensive categories. This includes total yards per game (392 ypg, 30th in NFL) and rushing yards allowed (143 ypg, 31st in the NFL), among others.
Andy Dalton, who signed a long-term deal this offseason, has struggled mightily of late, and had one of the worst outings of his career against the Browns, throwing for a mere 83 yards with three interceptions. With Dalton struggling, it makes it difficult to utilize All-Pro wide receiver A.J. Green. Add losing running back Giovanni Bernard to injury, and the Steelers might be catching the Bengals at the right time.
The Steelers will have to find a way to find the type of consistency that allowed them to run off three straight before Sunday’s setback to the Jets. With the Steelers proving they are capable of winning, and losing against anyone in the NFL, they simply cannot afford to slip up over the final six game stretch of the season.
If they do, it will likely mean a third straight year missing the playoffs, and a lot of tough questions from Steeler Nation.
