Remember Tim Tebow? The last time he was relevant in the NFL landscape was in the 2011 playoffs as a member of the Denver Broncos. Tebow managed to knock off the Pittsburgh Steelers on the first play of overtime, completing a short pass that went for a long touchdown to Demaryius Thomas. Since that bizarre and heartbreaking loss for Pittsburgh, a couple of 8-8 seasons have passed, resulting in missed playoffs and missed opportunities for veteran QB Ben Roethlisberger and company.
In 2014, an early up-and-down, inconsistent Steelers team has righted the ship. Pittsburgh is 11-5, having won eight of ten including the last four after a perfect December, boasting a 6-2 home record. Head coach Mike Tomlin’s is preparing to meet the AFC North division rival Baltimore Ravens (10-6) for a third time this season. Baltimore, led by John Harbaugh and QB Joe Flacco, is 4-4 on the road this season and has weathered the Ray Rice and Haloti Ngata controversies, slipping into the playoffs by virtue of a Week 17 win over Cleveland coupled with a loss by the San Diego Chargers.
Rice, of course, was involved in a widely-publicized domestic assault last summer which led to his prompt removal from the organization after being suspended by the league commissioner. Ngata missed the last month of the regular season after testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs, but he will return to the Ravens defensive front just in time for this playoff game.
It is a Baltimore defense that may not have to face a healthy and dangerous Steelers RB Le’Veon Bell, a huge part of the dangerous offensive “Killer B’s” trio that includes “Big Ben” Roethlisberger and wideout Antonio Brown. It is a Baltimore defense that has struggled against the pass, especially during its first visit to Heinz Field in Week 9, when Roethlisberger exploded for six touchdown passes. The Ravens have not had top cornerback Jimmy Smith since Week 8, but will have Lardarius Webb who has returned from a back injury and is playing well at the right time of the year for the Ravens.
In fact, most of the Ravens (other than Smith, who is out for the year) are getting healthy. Terrell Suggs has practiced all week at the linebacker position and defensive end Chris Canty has as well. Perhaps the only two players not expected to suit up Saturday for Harbaugh are tackle Eugene Monroe and defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan, doubtful with ankle injuries. For Pittsburgh, the injury report is not as short. Other than Bell, whose playing status will be determined on Saturday, cornerback Ike Taylor, safety Troy Polamalu, defensive tackle Steve McLendon and tackle Mike Adams all practiced on Thursday, so it appears they can all go Saturday, in what could possibly be the final home game for Taylor and Polamalu. Veteran linebacker James Harrison, signed mid-season in a year of resurgence, has been ill this week and has not practiced much, but should be able to play. Harrison was instrumental in the Week 9 dismantling of Flacco, sacking him twice and hitting him twice more.
Flacco threw for just under 4,000 yards this season to go along with 27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He led a Ravens offense that set a franchise record with 409 points, still 27 less than the potent Steelers offense put on the board. Baltimore had the third best scoring differential in the AFC at plus-107, behind only New England and Denver. Only Kansas City and Buffalo allowed fewer points than the Ravens.
On the other side, Roethlisberger had a career year with just short of 5,000 passing yards, 32 touchdowns and just nine interceptions. A whopping 1,698 of those yards went to Brown, who scored 13 touchdowns. With four straight wins, Pittsburgh is the hottest team in the AFC, matching Dallas’ current streak and trailing only Seattle’s streak of six. Pittsburgh’s 368 points allowed were the third most by one of the 12 playoff teams. Conversely, the offense ranked sixth out of the 12 playoff teams in points scored.
If Baltimore wins Saturday, it will go to New England for the divisional round as the six seed. A Pittsburgh victory would send the Steelers to Denver for a 2011 playoff rematch.
When: Saturday, January 3, 2015 – 8:15 pm EST
Where: Heinz Field – Pittsburgh, PA
Watch: NBC (Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth)
Spread: Steelers -3 (via Bovada)
Last Meeting: The teams split the season series in 2014, with each home team coming out on top. In Week 2, Baltimore won 26-6 at M&T Bank Stadium and, in Week 9 at Heinz Field, the Steelers won 43-23 in a primetime game on Sunday Night Football. Do the math, and that’s a 49-49 tie in the first two meetings heading into Saturday’s elimination game.
Keys for Pittsburgh:
1) Obviously, no Le’Veon Bell would drastically change and challenge the Pittsburgh offense, and at such an inopportune time. Even if he does play, it will not be at 100 percent and it would almost certainly be tentative, out of fear of risking greater injury. Therefore, expect the passing game to be a major part of Todd Haley’s gameplan. Roethlisberger and Brown will need to be on, and key additions from Heath Miller, Martavis Bryant, Markus Wheaton and others would be huge. Rookie Josh Harris and perhaps the newly-signed free agent Ben Tate will be first in line to receive carries if Bell cannot go.
2) If Big Ben has to throw a few dozen times or more, the impressive Steelers offensive line must continue to give him time. This receiving corps will get open and make the big plays they have made all season if there is time for Roethlisberger to pick them apart. If Suggs and Ngata get to him, it will wreak havoc.
3) The return of Taylor and Polamalu in the Steelers secondary seems imminent, though both are not quite their old selves. Baltimore may attack the veterans and try to possibly end their careers on their own home turf. Steve Smith, Sr., Torrey Smith and Flacco have the ability to make life difficult on Pittsburgh’s 27th-ranked pass defense.
Keys for Baltimore:
1) For Baltimore, everything may ride on the performance of the secondary. It ranks 23rd in the NFL, allowing nearly 250 passing yards per game in an uncharacteristically poor season, much like Pittsburgh’s. Roethlisberger and the Steelers have lived and died by the success of the league’s second-ranked air attack, so the Ravens definitely will have a challenge on their hands.
2) No Ray Rice? No problem for Baltimore, after all. Justin Forsett has been outstanding with over 1,200 yards and eight touchdowns, running away with the starting role over Bernard Pierce. If he can average over five yards per carry as he did this season, it will help Flacco open up a balanced offense and look for the type of big plays through the air that helped the Ravens to a Super Bowl win two years ago.
3) Speaking of that championship run in 2012, the Ravens (like the Steelers) know what it takes to get to that coveted title game, and they know that late-season performance is a moot point come playoff time. That year, Baltimore lost four of its last five regular season games before going on a rampage. In the last several weeks of 2014, Baltimore won three of five but the wins against Jacksonville and Cleveland were not exactly impressive. Still, expect the Ravens to be prepared and hungry to knock off the hated Steelers on the road.
Prediction: For so long, these two teams played an absurd number of close games, with so many resulting in differences of less than a touchdown. In fact, between 2008 and 2014, nine of the 16 battles were decided by three points. One was decided by two, and another by four. These games are tight, physical, often controversial and one or two plays will likely determine the outcome. Both defenses are getting healthy, so the best offense ought to be the determining factor in this matchup. I think Pittsburgh’s sizzling offensive unit will be too much, even if Bell cannot make an impact. Roethlisberger can have another big day at home, under the lights, against this struggling Baltimore defense. If he does, it will be Pittsburgh, 27-23, resulting in a trip to the Mile High City.
