One day short of being exactly ten years to the day, the Pittsburgh Steelers headed to Paul Brown Stadium to face the AFC North Division Champion Cincinnati Bengals as a sixth seed to begin their quest for an elusive fifth Super Bowl title.
An early injury to quarterback Carson Palmer left the Bengals to rely on backup Jon Kitna which proved to be too much to overcome in a 31-17 loss to the Steelers.
Now the Bengals will once again look to a backup QB to attempt to erase the long history of playoff disappointments while the Steelers hope to use this game as a similar catalyst to push a step closer to their unprecedented seventh Lombardi Trophy.
Let’s preview the contest and make a prediction.
When: 8:15 pm
Where: Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
Watch: CBS
Spread: Bengals (+3)
Series: Pittsburgh leads 57-35
Last meeting: 12/13/15–Steelers 33 Bengals 20
Three keys Steelers victory:
Life without Williams — Barring a last minute miracle, starting running back DeAngelo Williams will not be available due to the foot injury suffered in the Steelers season finale against the Browns. Fitzgerald Toussaint is expected to fill in for Williams, but the question is obvious–can Toussaint step in and be effective as the primary back?
The Steelers are saying all the right things in regards to Toussaint, but it’s hard to feel confident with Williams out. Williams had become ultra-reliable in all three phases of the game at his position–running the ball, as a pass catcher, and in pass protection. It’s very much up in the air as to how well Toussaint can do against a Bengals defense that is among the league’s best.
It will be important for the Steelers to find a way to get Toussaint and the rushing attack going to take some of the pressure off of Ben Roethlisberger and the passing game. If the Bengals don’t feel they have to worry about the running game, it could make for a very difficult challenge for the Steelers offense.
Win the turnover battle — The Bengals are plus-11 in turnover margin which is among the league leaders while the Steelers are barely on the positive side at plus-2. Bengals quarterback A.J. McCarron threw two interceptions against the Steelers back in December, but none his last three games. The label “game manager” is being tagged to McCarron quite a bit, but against a Steelers defense that is susceptible to giving up a ton of yards and the big play, he’s more than capable of helping lead the Bengals to their first playoff win in 25 years.
The Steelers defense has masked some of their flaws when they force turnovers and this is exactly what the much-maligned unit must do to keep the Bengals from taking control of the contest.
Conversely Roethlisberger has had some difficulty protecting the ball, throwing seven picks to six touchdowns in his last four games. This simply can’t continue if the Steelers want to travel to Denver next weekend to play in the AFC Divisional round.
Be creative with the offensive game plan — The Bengals like to rely on their front-four to put pressure on the quarterback, often electing to drop seven into coverage and dare quarterbacks to make tough throws. Roethlisberger of late has often got into trouble trying to do too much and has relied far too much on low percentage deep passes. This could be fatal against Bengals pass defense that has 21 interceptions including four in two games against Roethlisberger.
How about using the middle of the field? Or a screen pass? Maybe find ways to get players like Markus Wheaton and even pass-catching fullback Will Johnson more involved? Take what the Bengals defense give you, it might mean patience and long, time-consuming drives, but that will help limit mistakes and could open up big plays at the game goes on.
Three keys to Bengals victory:
Exorcise the playoff demons — What does that mean exactly? It means get off to a good start and don’t let the doubts creep into players and fans alike. The Steelers are 14-3 all-time at Paul Brown Stadium along with beating the Bengals in both previous playoff contests there. Add the narrative of Marvin Lewis not being able to get the job done in the postseason (0-6 for his career) and it won’t take long for the “here we go again” feeling to permeate through players and fans.
If that happens? All bets are off for the Bengals.
Efficient A.J. — As fans know all too well, the Steelers defense has been victimized much of the season, and that’s especially the case through the air. Two weeks removed from being picked apart by the Baltimore Ravens’ Ryan Mallett, McCarron could be in line for a big game with weapons like A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert and Marvin Jones ready to run roughshod through the Steelers secondary.
McCarron has proven both during his brief time as a starter in Cincinnati and his illustrious career at Alabama that the big-game stage is not too big. If he relies on the considerable talent around him to do much of the heavy lifting, it should be enough to get a win against the hated Steelers.
Big games for Dunlap, Atkins and Johnson — The pass rushing trio of Carlos Dunlap, Geno Atkins and Michael Johnson have combined for 29.5 sacks this season. Their ability to consistently apply pressure has afforded the Bengals the luxury of leaning on the front four to do most of the dirty work in the pass rush. You can bet it’s helped make the Bengals’ pass defense even better.
Pressure Roethlisberger with regularity and it should mean good things for the opportunistic Bengals secondary who will already be expecting to see over 40 pass attempts in the game.
Prediction:
The last time the Bengals won a playoff game was 1991. The Internet was in its infancy and George H.W. Bush was President–so yeah, it’s been a while.
Boomer Esiason isn’t walking through the door for the Bengals, but McCarron is certainly capable of leading the Bengals to a win over a Steelers squad with a suspect defense and one that have to try and win in the playoffs down Williams and Le’Veon Bell. That’s a tall task on a short week against a team that most certainly is on a mission to end a long playoff drought and do it by beating their most-hated rival.
Can the defense come through against a dangerous Bengals offense? Will Big Ben get out of his recent swoon? Paint me skeptical in this one, and everything is telling go with the Bengals. Until they actually do it, I’ll put my money on the Steelers, but not with a lot of confidence. Steelers 28 Bengals 27
