On the final Sunday of 2014, the Cincinnati Bengals (10-4-1) make the short trip east up the Ohio River to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5) in a battle for the AFC North division title and preferred playoff seeding. The winner will slot into the number three seed and is guaranteed a home game for Wild Card weekend, while the loser will go to Indianapolis as the five seed.
Cincinnati has held the division lead throughout much of the season and has won five of six, yet that one loss at home to Pittsburgh opened the door for the Steelers to bounce back from losses to the New York Jets and New Orleans Saints, allowing the opportunity to take the division once again. Pittsburgh last won the division in 2010 and last made the playoffs (as a Wild Card) in 2011, resulting in a loss to Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos in overtime.
The Bengals, meanwhile, are heading to the playoffs for a fourth consecutive season. Yet in those three playoff trips, quarterback Andy Dalton and his teammates are 0-3 and have developed a reputation for futility under pressure. By further exorcising some primetime demons, especially against a quality division opponent on the road, Cincinnati can position itself for a prime chance to put at least one in the playoff wins column under the current regime. Head coach Marvin Lewis is 0-5 in the playoffs, dating back to the days of Carson Palmer wearing the black and orange. Lewis is the second most-tenured coach in the league, hired in 2003 three years after Bill Belichick went to New England.
Dalton, Lewis and the Bengals began the season 3-0 before going through a tough post-bye week stretch in October, suffering two road losses at New England and Indianapolis and tying Carolina. The Patriots and Colts, both playoff-bound, beat the Bengals by a 70-17 combined score. Then showing resiliency with a huge home win against Baltimore, earning the season sweep of the Ravens, Cincinnati would then only lose in a primetime game against a then-hot Cleveland Browns team and to the Steelers later on. Like the Steelers, Cincinnati is 3-2 in the league’s most competitive division and, matching Pittsburgh’s 5-2 home record, the Bengals are a very solid 5-2 on the road.
It is well-documented that the Steelers have been a bizarre, up-and-down squad, starting 4-3 with an inexplicable home loss to Tampa Bay and a 31-10 failure at Cleveland, sparking the annual debate about head coach Mike Tomlin’s leadership and preparation, offensive coordinator Todd Haley’s competence and defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau’s ability to sustain his long-term success in that role.
Pittsburgh has won seven of nine since, including an impressive mid-season thumping of Houston, Indianapolis and Baltimore at home, where they scored 124 points in those three games. Two more tough losses to the Jets and Saints, sandwiched by an unimpressive win at Tennessee have been followed up by solid wins at Cincinnati and Atlanta and last week at home to the Kansas City Chiefs, who were, as a result, eliminated from playoff contention.
On Sunday night, Cincinnati will be dealing with a number of injuries and a spate of illness that has decimated its secondary leading up into the final week of the regular season. On the team’s official injury report, cornerbacks Adam “Pac-Man” Jones and Terence Newman and safety Reggie Nelson are among those who still remain listed as questionable due to the outbreak that rampaged the locker room there. Dalton was also previously listed with that illness, but no longer appears on the report and is reported as being back to full health. His top receiver, A.J. Green, is listed as probable with a biceps ailment. Green has been hurt throughout much of the season and, despite his top-tier talent, has not yet eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards due to missing ample time early in the year.
For the Steelers, it is one of the shortest lists of names all season long showing up on this week’s injury report. Listed as questionable are cornerback Ike Taylor and safety Troy Polamalu, who may possibly be suiting up for his final regular season game after 12 years in black and gold. Polamalu has yet to confirm or deny reports that he will retire at season’s end. Whether he plays or not, a win against Cincinnati would guarantee at least one more home game and some healing time prior to the start of the playoffs next weekend.
When: Sunday, December 28, 2014 – 8:30 pm EST
Where: Heinz Field – Pittsburgh, PA
Watch: NBC (Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth)
Spread: Steelers -3.5 (via Bovada)
Last Meeting: The Steelers unraveled the Bengals at Cincinnati in Week 14, winning 42-21 and closing the gap on the division leaders, leading to this winner-take-all matchup. Pittsburgh has won seven of nine in the rivalry, including the last two. The Bengals have won just once in the last four visits to Heinz Field.
Keys for Pittsburgh:
1) Andy Dalton was 21-29 for 302 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions in the Week 14 loss to Pittsburgh. Despite his team’s loss that day, he was quite good and the Steelers defense must do more to disrupt the Bengals quarterback. The Steelers scored 42 points that day, so it hardly mattered that Dalton was solid and avoided mistakes (other than one lost fumble), but you cannot count on your offense have that much success again. Count on the Steelers defense to do everything possible to avoid letting Dalton settle in and get comfortable.
2) Ben Roethlisberger was outstanding in Cincinnati that day, going 25-39 for 350 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. He was not sacked once by the league’s worst pass rush and it is on the offensive line to protect him again and set the offense up for a similarly dominant day. With Ben, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, it will be a very tough task for the Bengals to make enough stops.
3) Speaking of Bell, he had 185 rushing yards to go along with six receptions for 50 yards at Cincinnati. He has cooled off a bit in the weeks since, but know that he will be the most dynamic talent on the field this Sunday night and he can cap off a great season as the AFC’s best back by leading the Steelers to a division crown.
Keys for Cincinnati:
1) The emergence of second-round draft pick Jeremy Hill has to be a welcome sight for Bengals fans, as he has been the team’s top back at 1,024 yards and 5.1 yards per carry. He is more than just a compliment to Giovani Bernard, who had a similar outbreak last season, but has taken a back seat this year due to Hill’s production. Both must be a dual threat in the Cincinnati offense at Heinz on Sunday night in order to create long, successful drives to keep Pittsburgh’s offense off the field and to alleviate pressure on Dalton to do it all to win.
2) Dalton has completed a respectable 63 percent of his passes this season, but he has also thrown too many to players wearing the wrong jersey. As mentioned previously, he avoided throwing one to Pittsburgh in the last matchup, and he certainly must avoid doing so again in this one. He has been blamed for throwing important games away in the past and cannot afford to do so tonight.
3) Cincinnati believes they have turned a corner and are ready to take the next step – win the big ones late in the year and after the New Year. Sunday night is the unofficial start to the playoffs – not in that it is an elimination game, but in that it is a measure of which team is more prepared to make a playoff run and to represent the AFC North. The Bengals surely do not want to go to Indianapolis against Andrew Luck and the Colts next weekend. They need to muster up and find a way to knock the Steelers down a peg.
Prediction: Pittsburgh fans should respect the Bengals and what they have been able to do to turn around a franchise that was once the laughingstock of the NFL. The Cleveland Browns should be taking notes…Cincinnati has established stability and has used loyalty and trust to build a perennial playoff team around its head coach and franchise quarterback. Dalton is not elite, but he is stable and should eventually turn the page. This may well be the year Cincinnati finally wins a playoff game, but I don’t believe this will be a night they prove to be a better all-around team than Pittsburgh. The Steelers win the AFC North, 30-23, and mark it down – the San Diego Chargers will be coming to the Steel City next week.
