For the first time since 2012, Penn State has the chance to go to a bowl game.
In September, the NCAA announced that, in light of Penn State’s tremendous efforts to correct their poor reporting measures and make sure that the appropriate resources were available to students, faculty, and fans, the university would be given the chance to play in a postseason game two years earlier than the sanctions originally dictated.
Given that Penn State was on its way to a 4-0 start at the time, the hype was incredible. The immediate consensus among Penn State fans, premature as it may have been, was that the Nittany Lions would enter the postseason undefeated. Twitter and Facebook exploded in support of the team and the NCAA’s decision. Head coach James Franklin carefully tempered the enthusiasm with words of warning for fans and players alike.
“We’re not bowl-eligible,” Franklin clarified. “We have an opportunity to go to a bowl game.”
Flash forward to nine weeks later, and the question is now whether or not the Nittany Lions will even make it to the postseason.
NCAA regulation demands six wins for a team to be bowl eligible, and Penn State is only one victory away. With three regulation games remaining, Penn State’s chances of making it to the postseason look good – from the outside. Fans know it won’t be that easy.
Of the three remaining games, two wins are feasible. Penn State has not lost to Temple since 1941, though Temple has come close in the last three meetings. Temple’s defense is strong and creates a lot of pressure, which Penn State finds hard to handle; the Nittany Lion offense is already so worn down that the pressure of a solid defense will likely be problematic for quarterback Christian Hackenberg, who needs time to create an effective passing game. The Owls’ offense is weak though, and the third-ranked defense in the country belongs to Penn State. If the offense can get fired up and the defense can shut down Temple’s running game, then Penn State may come out with this win. If not, it’s a toss-up.
Following its home game at Temple, Penn State will travel to face-off against Illinois. The Illini are 4-5 and feature one of the Big Ten’s weakest defenses, potentially allowing the struggling Penn State offense to take control. One of the more interesting matchups of the game will be quarterback Wes Lunt, expected to return against Iowa after missing six weeks after sustaining a fractured fibula on October 4 against Purdue. With his return, the Illini hope to see a more accurate passing game to challenge the Penn State defense. The Nittany Lions are favored to win, but with their struggles over the past five games, nothing is certain.
Finally, Penn State will wrap up the regular season against Michigan State. Realistically, Penn State is not likely to win this, so in order to be bowl eligible, they must win again Temple or Illinois. The same problems will plague them against the Spartans, but Michigan State, sitting comfortably at number 12 on the AP ranking, is much better at capitalizing on its opponent’s mistakes. If Penn State is to have a chance at ending their season on a high note, it cannot afford any errors.
If it’s been said once, it’s been said hundreds of times. Penn State is stunningly inconsistent. The team’s lack of offense is going to hurt them, and maybe even keep them out of a bowl game. Hackenberg was sacked 35 times this season and completed only 195-347 passes, throwing 12 interceptions through nine games, compared to only seven touchdowns. His frustration impacts the team in a vicious cycle; the more he is pummeled by the opposing defense, the less accurate he is, which in turn leads to wasted opportunities for Penn State.
However, Hackenberg is not the only one to blame. The team was crippled by the scholarship reduction that the NCAA handed down two years ago, and former head coach Bill O’Brien focused those limited spots on building the strongest possible defense; the team reaps of benefits of a powerhouse defense led by senior linebacker Mike Hull, but the inability to spark any kind of intimidating score has left the team wracked with frustration and anger.
To make a long story short, the odds of Penn State making it to a bowl game, even if it’s not a big one, are pretty decent, but if they hope to make it anywhere in the postseason, then the Nittany Lions need to shape up, and they need to do it fast.
