Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints (4-7) offense have often struck fear into the hearts of opponents in recent years during the tenure of head coach Sean Payton. In 2014 as the Saints visit the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4) for a vital Week 13 matchup for both sides, Brees and his offense continue to put up big yards, but inconsistency, turnovers and constant pressure to pick up a porous defense have led to an uncharacteristically poor start in New Orleans.
The Saints are in football’s worst division, the NFC South, and even at 4-7 are right in the thick of the playoff race. With Atlanta also at 4-7 and Carolina at 3-7-1, there is still an excellent chance for the Saints to sneak into the playoffs. To do so, Payton’s team will need to come to the Steel City and pass a big test in frigid weather against the Steelers, who are also in the thick of a division race. In the AFC North, the league’s most balanced and competitive division, the Bengals (7-3-1), Ravens (7-4), Browns (7-4) and Steelers are neck and neck, making every game the rest of the way extremely important as those teams jockey for position.
Even at 4-7, New Orleans has a +2 point differential due to some big wins and close losses. They have lost three straight, all at home, including an overtime loss to San Francisco and a seven-point loss to Baltimore. Brees’ passing offense ranks third in yards per game (308.8) and ninth in rushing (124.8), but the defense (under coordinator Rob Ryan) ranks 23rd against both the rush and the pass. Brees is completing a league-high 70.3 percent of his passes and is third in passing yards, behind only Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning. He has 22 touchdown passes but 11 interceptions, as well. The top receiving target is tight end Jimmy Graham, with 65 catches for 670 yards and nine touchdowns. Marques Colston 38 grabs for 618 yards (16.3 yards per reception) and rookie first-round pick Brandon Stills has added 53 receptions for 550 yards.
In the Saints’ ground game, Mark Ingram leads the way with just over four yards per carry and six touchdowns. The problem for the Saints has, again, not been offensively, but on the defensive side. New Orleans ranks low in many categories, and are dead last in third-down situations. Opposing offenses convert 48 percent of the time and a whopping 39 percent in situations of 3rd-and-7 or longer.
The Saints are also just 1-4 on the road, only winning the most recent road game in Week 9 at Carolina. This is New Orleans’ last game against AFC North opponents, against whom they are 0-3 so far. With the Browns, Bengals and Ravens having all beaten this team, Pittsburgh especially needs to get a win in this home game. The Steelers are 4-1 at Heinz Field, with the last game there being played in primetime on November 2 against Baltimore. That win against the Ravens completed a three-game home winning streak before Pittsburgh went on to lose at New York and win at Tennessee prior to last week’s bye.
Ben Roethlisberger has thrown 18 of his 24 touchdown passes at home, good for the largest differential in the league amongst all quarterbacks between home and away totals. He is completing over 68 percent of his passes and has thrown just six interceptions. Le’Veon Bell comes off a monstrous game at Tennessee and with 49 yards on Sunday, he would go over 1,000 on the season. He is fourth in the NFL and all three of those ahead of him have already played this week (DeMarco Murray, LeSean McCoy, Marshawn Lynch). With just 67 yards, Bell would be second overall in rushing yards through Week 13. Meanwhile, receiver Antonio Brown is second in the league in receiving yards, behind only Denver’s Demaryius Thomas.
To go alongside a well-balanced offense, Pittsburgh is getting healthier on defense. Coordinator Dick LeBeau’s unit ranks in the top half of the league against both the run and the pass. Only nose tackle Steve McLendon and cornerback Cortez Allen have been ruled out, so Troy Polamalu and Ike Taylor are both expected back. Ryan Shazier remains questionable, though this is the first time since his injury that he has not been ruled out well in advance of the game. Tackle Marcus Gilbert is also questionable for Sunday’s game.
When: Sunday, November 30, 2014 – 1:00 pm EST
Where: Heinz Field – Pittsburgh, PA
Watch: FOX (Thom Brennaman, Donovan McNabb)
Spread: Steelers -5 (via Bovada)
Last Meeting: New Orleans defended its home turf in 2010, defeating the Steelers 20-10 at the SuperDome. Pittsburgh won the last time the teams played at Heinz Field in a 38-31 shootout in the 2006 season.
Keys for Pittsburgh:
1) Defend the new, re-sodded turf at Heinz Field. Things have gone well at home for the Steelers this season, save for that ugly Week 4 loss to Tampa Bay. With a 4-1 record at home and the Saints just 1-4 on the road, Sunday is definitely a home-field advantage for the black and gold.
2) Roethlisberger was playing at a record-breaking pace during Pittsburgh’s mid-season stretch of home games, throwing 12 touchdown passes in the two games against Indianapolis and Baltimore. He has not played as well since, struggling against New York and Tennessee. If he gets back to those dominant ways, the Saints defense won’t know what hit them.
3) Speaking of the New Orleans secondary, Keenan Lewis returns to Pittsburgh for the first time in another team’s uniform. He has been a bright spot on an otherwise bad defense, so the matchup between Brown and Lewis will be key for the success of the Pittsburgh pass attack.
Keys for New Orleans:
1) Simply put, Brees cannot turn it over in this game. Pittsburgh will likely put up a big number on the scoreboard against this defense, so Brees cannot help out his opponent like he has at times this year. He has tried to force the ball where he wants it at times and has too often paid the price. The Pittsburgh defense has three interceptions returned for touchdowns this season, and will be looking for number four against these Saints.
2) New Orleans would benefit greatly from long, time-consuming drives to keep that defense from being worn down. On offense, they like to go big and go fast, so perhaps slowing the game down a bit, getting the running game going, etc., would be a good idea to help slow the game down a bit.
3) Expect the Saints to attack Ike Taylor, who returns from his arm injury suffered in Week 3 at Carolina. He could be rusty and a bit slow early on.
Prediction: This has the potential to be the wildest, and possibly the most fun Steelers game of the 2014 season. I expect a shootout and it may come down to one turnover or one final drive to decide the outcome. Shaun Suisham better be ready to kick a game-winner to help the Steelers win, 34-31.
