With the St. Louis Cardinals and the Boston Red Sox both within one game of the World Series, it’s just about that time to start discussing offseason moves for your favorite team. With the Pirates 97-win season (including playoffs), they have some interesting decisions to make in the coming months.
Now, we don’t know how much money each team will be allocated for the national TV deal, but for arguments sake and inflation, let’s say that the Pirates enter the 2014 season with a middle of the pack payroll of $100 million dollars. The Pirates currently have committed $41.75 million (they are responsible for $36.25 million of it) invested in Wandy Rodriguez, Russell Martin, Andrew McCutchen, Jason Grilli, Francisco Liriano and Jose Tabata.
They have 10 people who are arbitration eligible, including a few first time eligible players, while having 21 pre-arbitration eligible players. That leaves seven free agents to complete the Pirates 40-man roster. Note that Rodriguez, Jeff Karstens, Kyle McPherson and Michael McKenry were on the disable list, so that doesn’t count against the 40-man.
The free agents in question are Karstens, A.J. Burnett, Clint Barmes, Marlon Byrd, Justin Morneau, Kyle Farnsworth and John Buck.
Now, I want to look at just the free agents here. Yes, McKenry will more than likely be non-tendered, and Alvarez can opt. out of his $700,000 option to opt. for arbitration (with Scott Boras), it’s very likely to happen. But let’s look just at the free agents.
Sure, the Pirates had tremendous success in 2013, but will that allow them to bring any of their free agents back? A big part of me is saying no.
First, Buck and Farnsworth are gone. Glad we got that out of the way. Then you have the injury plagued Karstens. His shoulder is done. There’s nothing left to it, and his pitching days are over in my opinion.
I touted Morneau as being overrated when everyone said he was the piece the Pirates needed. He filled a void in the cleanup spot, despite not hitting a home run in his time with the Pirates. He allowed for some consistency with the roster, and didn’t put added pressure on Alvarez. Morneau won’t be back, as he’ll sign a bigger contract with another team.
Then you have Barmes. Honestly, I think he’s the most likely to return, and that isn’t saying much. Barmes could return but it’ll be a significant decrease in pay (he made $5 million this year), and he’ll earn significantly less playing time with Jordy Mercer taking over at shortstop. Barmes said he’s open to returning, so if you can work something out, why not? Would you rather John McDonald again?
That leaves Byrd and Burnett.
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Bob Smizek did a good comparison between Byrd ,Tabata and Gaby Sanchez last week. Smizek did the Player A, Player B comparison over the past four years. I’m right with Smizek, as I’m not sold on Byrd. He’s a great guy, he loved his time here and he had a great season overall. Does that warrant paying him somewhere between $8-$10 million over two years when Gregory Polanco is on schedule to make his debut in July?
It’s Byrd’s last chance to cash in on a big contract, and I say go for it. And trust me, he will. Some team — maybe even the Pirates — will think that he can continue his sudden progression from 2013, but chances are, you won’t see him in the black and gold anymore.
Then there is Burnett. Mr. STFD. Burnett has said that he was considering retirement after talking with The Tribune-Review earlier this year. Bob Nutting made some interesting comments when he said he wanted A.J. Burnett back. Now, of course, that’ll come down to A.J., who turns 37 this offseason, to decide.
If Burnett is thinking about retirement, which he is, that maximum deal he would sign is a two-year deal, right? So the right move for the Pirates to make would be to offer Burnett the qualifying one-year, $14 million offer. By doing this, the Pirates have protected themselves. If another team wants to match the Pirates offer, and Burnett decides he wants to explore his options in the market, the Pirates will receive a draft pick from the team that Burnett signs with for him leaving as an unrestricted free agent.
But say he wants a two-year contract. While 2013 could be argued as his strongest season of his career, can he sustain this success when he turns 37 and 38? If I’m the Pirates, I’m buying in on one year. As we saw this year, you can never have enough pitching. Next year, you have Liriano, Gerrit Cole and Charlie Morton. That’s all you can *depend* on. Jameson Taillon will likely be up at some point, but can you count on Rodriguez or Jeff Locke to fill out the rotation in the meantime? I’ll take Burnett for one more year at $14 million, but if he decided on two years at around $26-$27 million, I decline.
After all, the success the Pirates have had in the past few years has been the reclamation projects on the pitching staff. If they don’t feel Burnett can contribute at a high level for two more years, but your bottom dollar they’ll find someone on the open market that can.
They’ll have enough money to spend this year, anyway.
