With four weeks remaining in the 2014 NFL season, the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) need something to go right and they need it now. Defeating the defending division champs and current AFC North-leading Cincinnati Bengals (8-3-1) would be an ideal way to get back on track.
Cincinnati was the only team in the division to win last week and, by virtue of a tie with Carolina earlier this season, the Bengals now have a margin of two to work with in the loss column over Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cleveland, all of whom may be battling for a Wild Card berth instead. In what has been a very tight divisional race all season long, the knot can be made even tighter should Pittsburgh find success on the road at this crucial point in the season.
The Steelers, who rank in the top half of the league in rushing offense, passing offense, rushing defense and passing defense, have a handful of ugly losses that have made life a lot more difficult than many expected. In three losses to Tampa Bay, the New York Jets and New Orleans, who have a combined nine wins between them, the Steelers have arguably thrown away the opportunity to run away with the division and perhaps even home-field advantage in the AFC playoff race. Instead, they battle for the chance to even participate in the playoffs heading down the stretch.
Pittsburgh’s fourth-ranked passing offense, led by QB Ben Roethlisberger, has piled up a lot of yards to go along with a strong 11th-ranked rushing attack. Lead back Le’Veon Bell is a force out of the backfield and in the short passing game and top receiver Antonio Brown continues to rake in the catches and first downs, but the points on the scoreboard at the end of the game have not matched the opposition often enough. Turnovers, penalties, settling for field goals and red zone failures have left points on the field and a battered, aging defense has not been able to hold down the fort.
That defense should get rookie Ryan Shazier and second-year, former first-round pick Jarvis Jones back at linebacker, but there are still relevant injuries affecting this side of the ball for Pittsburgh. Ike Taylor and Troy Polamalu were among the veterans who returned from injury hiatuses last week, but those members of the secondary were unsuccessful in stopping Drew Brees from throwing five touchdowns for New Orleans. Even worse, defensive lineman and team leader Brett Keisel was lost for the season with a torn biceps. Cortez Allen was placed on injured reserve on Saturday, so he is out. Nose tackle Steve McLendon and linebacker James Harrison are not expected to be able to go and on offense, tackle Marcus Gilbert has already been ruled out again.
Cincinnati, like every other team at this point in the season, is certainly not 100 percent either. Vontaze Burfict is out for sure and Domata Peko is questionable, so a defense that ranks 14th against the pass and just 25th against the run will be a bit thin in their front seven. Also, star receiver A.J. Green has battled injuries all year, but he is expected to play despite being limited in practice.
When: Sunday, December 7, 2014 – 1:00 pm EST
Where: Paul Brown Stadium – Cincinnati, OH
Watch: CBS (Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts)
Spread: Bengals -3 (via Bovada)
Last Meeting: Pittsburgh came up with a huge 30-20 win last season against Cincinnati in Week 15 to go to 6-8 and remain in the playoff race, one they would be in all the way through the final games of the season. In a Week 2 visit earlier in the 2013 season, it was the Bengals on top, in a 20-10 loss during the Steelers 0-4 start.
Keys for Pittsburgh:
1) Ring the Bell…Le’Veon’s 1,046 rushing yards are second in the league only to Dallas’ DeMarco Murray, who has been other-worldly this year. Bell is also dangerous in the passing game with 65 grabs for 643 yards. Expect him to get the ball a lot in a variety of ways as Pittsburgh tries to take advantage of the Bengals and a porous rush defense. Keeping them on the backs of their heels and off balance all day could mean big things for the Pittsburgh offense.
2) Andy Dalton has as many interceptions (13) as he has touchdowns this season and the Steelers would be remiss to not force him into more poor decisions and ill-advised throws. His reputation over the years has been one of often crumbling under pressure, especially when the games really start to mean something. This game means something, the Bengals fans know that, and they will boo if he gets them into trouble early on in this game.
3) Someone has to cover A.J. Green. The best way to help Dalton (see above) is to give him a big, wide-open target. Ike Taylor will be the guy expected to do that and you may recall how badly he was torched by Saints rookie Kenny Stills last week. Expect him to be bullied and hope that the safeties can be of some assistance.
Keys for Cincinnati:
1) Green is not the only Bengals wideout who can make big plays. In fact, because Green missed some games while hurt, Mohamed Sanu has been the most productive target of Dalton’s, with 51 receptions, 738 yards and five touchdowns. If he has a big day and demands attention from the Steelers secondary, it could be a rough day for the black and gold.
2) Cincinnati has gone to a two-back system in recent weeks, sharing carries amongst Jeremy Hill and the original start, Giovani Bernard. Pittsburgh has been strong against the run, allowing just 105 yards per game, but that is due in part to opponents’ willingness to go after the secondary. If Hill and/or Bernard turn in a big day, the balance will take pressure off Dalton and make life a lot easier for a Bengals offense that has struggled at times despite the strong record.
3) The key to beating Roethlisberger and the Steelers has so often been a quality blitzing game and bringing down Big Ben. Cincinnati sacks the opposing QB on just three percent of dropbacks, worst in the league. It is common knowledge around the league that you better not give Ben too much time to pick apart a secondary.
Prediction: Paul Brown Stadium has been a friendly venue to the Steelers, who have won 10 of 12 on the banks of the Ohio River. Pittsburgh finished strong last season, winning six of eight including the final three. Yet Cincinnati has been strong in December in the past few years, winning about 80 percent of games in the closing weeks of the regular season. Something will give in this crucial matchup and, unfortunately for Steelers nation, not enough things are trending well enough to spark legitimate belief that things will change in time. Cincinnati wins 27-20 and takes a big stride towards another division crown.
