The Pitt Panthers will look to rebound from a nightmarish performance last Saturday against Georgia Tech when they host nationally ranked No. 24 Duke in a key ACC Coastal matchup.
Duke can stake its claim to the top of the division with a win while knocking the Panthers completely out of the race in the process.
The Blue Devils will visit Pittsburgh for the first time in nearly 40 years and look to avenge last year’s 58-55 loss to Pitt in a thrilling shootout.
Who has the advantage this time around?
Let’s take a look.
When: Saturday, November 1
Where: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA.
Time: Noon EST
Watch: ESPNU
Spread: Pitt -3.5 (via Bovada)
Series History:
Series Began: 1929
Series Overall: Pitt leads 10-8
ACC Series: Pitt leads 1-0
At Pittsburgh: Series tied 4-4
At Duke: Pitt leads 6-4
Last Meeting at Pitt: Oct. 4, 1975 (Pitt 14, Duke 0)
Last Meeting at Duke: Sept. 21, 2013 (Pitt 58, Duke 55)
Current Streak: Pitt has won 4 (1969, 1975-76, 2013)
Longest Pitt Series Win Streak: 4 (1969, 1975-76, 2013)
Longest Duke Series Win Streak: 5 (1940-42, 1950-51)
Largest Pitt Victory Margin: 45 points (52-7, 1929)
Largest Duke Victory Margin: 28 points (28-0, 1942)
Keys for Pitt (4-4, 2-2 ACC):
1. Hold onto the football: Hopefully Pitt learned their lesson from last week’s debacle. If they are careless with the football this week it will become a laugher quickly.
2. Defense makes big plays: The Pitt defense cannot allow Duke to hang 50-plus points on them. Duke scored 55 points as the Panthers won last year. If Duke scores 55 this year, they win going away. A big defensive effort that includes some big plays should also help the Pitt offense out some. The Panthers don’t want to be allowing plenty of scores and subsequently starting around their own 20.
3. Run the football, control the clock: The best recipe for a Pitt victory is to keep the potent Blue Devils offense on the sidelines. That should mean a methodical approach to the game and a lot of James Conner. Pitt needs to move the chains consistently and win the time of possession battle. Even when they don’t score, moving the chains and taking time of the clock can also help Pitt win the field position battle as well.
Keys for Duke (6-1, 2-1 ACC):
1. Get it done defensively: With all of the talk about the Duke offense, many fail to realize that the Blue Devils have a very potent defense. Duke owns the nation’s No. 5 scoring defense, surrendering just 15.1 points per game. Meanwhile, the Panthers are scoring 29 points per contest this year. Something has to give. If Duke gets Pitt in a lot of third-and-long situations, they should force some Pitt mistakes.
2. Stop the run: This piggybacks off the first point, but Duke needs to take Conner out of the game. As good as the Blue Devils are on the defensive side of the ball, teams have been able to run on them. The Panthers are averaging 233.9 rushing yards per game, which ranks 19th nationally and third in the ACC. Duke is giving up an average of 193.4 yards on the ground, which ranks 13th in the ACC and 99th nationally. If Conner has one of his huge days, Pitt will have a chance.
Duke needs to make Pitt quarterback Chad Voytik beat them through the air. The Blue Devil defense has surrendered just three passing scores this year, the second-best mark in the country behind San Jose State.
3. Make Big Plays: The Panthers have a pretty good defense of their own, but have been prone to allowing the big play. That’s something that Duke may look to do on the ground rather than through the air. The Panthers rank sixth in the FBS in pass defense, allowing 165.6 yards per game, but gave up 465 yards rushing to Georgia Tech.
However someone is going to make big plays in the passing game. This game will feature two of the most electric receivers in the ACC, both of whom had huge days in last year’s contest. Tyler Boyd caught eight passes for 154 yards and scored three times against the Blue Devils in 2013, while Duke’s Jamison Crowder gained 279 all-purpose yards, scoring once on the ground, once through the air and returned a punt to total three touchdowns on the day.
Prediction: Pitt really needs this one to keep their bowl hopes alive. You will see a much better effort from Paul Chryst’s team this week. But it will come down to turnovers. Duke makes its living off creating turnovers. The Blue Devils are an ACC-best plus-8 in turnover margin while Pitt is last at minus-6. Look for that trend to continue in a Duke win. Duke 34, Pitt 20
Photo Credit: Associated Press
