ESPN’s Buster Olney has put out his annual rankings of the top rotations and bullpens in baseball.
Last year Olney predicted the Pittsburgh Pirates to win the World Series. This year he is equally bullish when it comes to the Pirates starting pitching staff and bullpen.
For the starters, Olney has ranked the unit seventh overall (subscription required) in MLB. The New York Mets unsurprisingly were ranked first, followed by the Indians, Cardinals, Cubs, Giants and Dodgers
The ranking be surprising to some, with the unit showing considerable question marks after Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano. Olney is likely counting on a logical progression for Cole after his breakout 2015 campaign. In the case of Liriano, his slider is often considered to be one of the best singular pitches in all of baseball. After staying relatively healthy over the past two seasons, Liriano figures to have another strong year.
Behind this 1-2 punch lies Jon Niese, Jeff Locke and Ryan Vogelsong. The true effectiveness of the Pirates rotation lies mostly on Niese. As a third starter with several pitches displaying great ground ball rates, Niese will benefit from the Pirates’ shift-heavy approach. With just 113 strikeouts on the year in 2015, Niese will have to lean on any advantage the team may afford him.
In Locke and Vogelsong, the book is more or less written on both pitcher. Locke will be looking to regain his 2013 All-Star form, while Vogelsong will strive to lower his Earned Run Average to a figure below 4.0, a metric he has not reached since the 2012 season.
Of course, with a bullpen ranked 8th overall by Olney, the team can afford to pull struggling starters early. Olney likes the trio of Mark Melancon, Tony Watson and Jared Hughes. He’s bullish on the Neftali Feliz signing, but to only rank the best bullpen in baseball in 2015 as eighth overall is a bit of a surprise. Six of the top 10 relief units in his list are from the American League. Two National League teams were ranked ahead of the Pirates – the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals.
It is clear that the team has put a significant amount of focus on the bullpen for 2016. After spending just under $5 million on four relief acquisitions by this time last year – Antonio Bastardo, Arquiemedes Caminero, Rob Scahill and Radhames Liz, the team has poured in $8 million with Juan Nicasio and Feliz alone. After Hughes, Melancon and Watson receive their projected arbitration raises, the entirety of the bullpen will likely cost upwards of $20 million. That would represent about 20 percent of the team’s projected payroll.
The starting rotation will likely get a boost from the long-awaited arrivals of Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow, but their arrival dates are uncertain. The relief pitching unit is always in flux, and options both inside the organization and outside will leave their mark.
As pitchers and catchers are less than a month away from reporting, it’s fair to wonder if these rankings are further proof that the club may not have done enough in the off-season to remain competitive in an ever-evolving National League landscape.
