Gar Bercury —
For much of the past two seasons, when it came to the ninth inning and the Pirates needed a closer to finish the job, Jason Grilli was the constant, the reliable one they could depend on. In fact, before last season’s forearm injury that put Grilli on the DL for over a month, he was basically automatic.
Grilli was the portrait of consistency, converting 25 of 25 save opportunities before the injury. All this was being done on a team that would eventually earn their first playoff bid in over 20 years. Add his story of perseverance and well, being a flat out good guy, and the city of Pittsburgh has embraced Grilli as a favorite son.
Unfortunately, a shaky start which includes three blown saves in seven chances, have some wondering if Grilli is still the reliable closer fans have grown accustomed to. Is a matter of bad luck? Is age and the wear and tear of the rigors of being a closer catching up with the 37 year old?
Not even a month into the season, is it really time to consider other options to replace the 2013 All-Star closer?
Though its hard not to have some doubts, my conclusion is, not so fast.
With one of the better stable of arms in MLB residing the Pirates bullpen, the immediate thought is if Grilli can’t get the job done, they can simply turn to somebody else; Mark Melancon, maybe Tony Watson. Even some will say that Bryan Morris or Justin Wilson are ready to step into the closer role.
Count me as one of those who thinks that is a bit premature. For one thing, when Melancon was forced to replace Grilli last season due to injury, he struggled. This included three straight blown saves late in the season, and another during the playoffs versus the Cardinals. Some players are simply better fits in a set up role as compared to closer, where a certain type of mental make up can make all the difference.
This might be the case with Melancon. As a set up man, he was an All-Star, but when the quiet right hander was asked to step into the high pressure role of closer, especially late in the season when the pressure mounted, he did not get the job done. Some guys have the DNA to close, and nobody seems to fit that role better than Grilli. Not sure that Melancon has the intestinal fortitude to get the job done in that role.
As for Watson, if the Pirates did make a change, he would ultimately be my choice, and I would have to agree he has the makeup to be the Pirates next closer; just not yet.
Morris has the look of a late inning/high leverage arm, but is he really ready for the challenges of closing games? No way.
Some point to Wilson, a guy with an electric fastball, as a possible option. Considering lefty closers are exceedingly rare in the game, I would say Wilson will continue to stay in his role as a specialist who will be used in certain situations. Sure, many will be high leverage ones, but in a closing role? That’s a stretch, especially in 2014.
Moreover, if you go in another direction for your closer, you completely change the roles of all those guys mentioned. Baseball is a place where players get into routines, along with embracing certain roles, and the bullpen is a perfect example of this. I think Clint Hurdle understands this very well.
Additionally, not only does Grilli has the mental makeup that is hard to find in the closer role, his stuff is fine. He’s still topping out on his fastball in the mid nineties, so its not a matter of him losing his velocity. Add to the fact that two of his blown saves happened against one of the best hitters in baseball, Ryan Braun. A lot of closers have made mistakes against hitters the caliber of Braun.
Finally, with the Pirates off to a very poor start, its easy to look at blown saves and put them under a microscope. The frustration of the Pirates early swoon has everyone on edge, and Grilli is more susceptible to criticism when the Pirates are near the bottom of the standings in the NL Central.
Lets wait a while before we look to make a change at closer. Its way too early to be making a major change to a critical role at this point. Give Grilli a chance to work through his issues before you consider a change in late April.
Jeff Snedden —
While Jason Grilli has done an admirable job as the closer for the Pittsburgh Pirates since inheriting the job from the traded Joel Hanrahan before the 2013 season, he is but one of several current Pirates who could easily step in and take over the ninth inning.
The Pirates are now sitting at 9-14, in fourth place in a very competitive N.L. Central Division. They will be contending with the St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers all summer if they wish to reclaim some of the magic that took over PNC Park last summer. Grilli, for all of the love and support he gets from both manager Clint Hurdle and the fan base, has been ultimately responsible for at least two of the Pirates recent losses. This is a team that cannot afford to get too far behind the other four contending teams in the division, since they lack the traditional star power needed to make up large deficits in the standings. With that said, it may be time for the Pirates to move Grilli back into the set-up role he so effectively owned during the 2011 and 2012 seasons and move forward with another arm at the end of the bullpen.
Moving Grilli into a set-up role will immediately bolster the overall bullpen, and may even re-energize the dynamic Grilli for a late season run in the closer role. Currently, the Pirates have LHP Tony Watson, LHP Justin Wilson and RHP Bryan Morris who all have shown the traditional closer mentality and effectiveness needed to control one inning of the game. While Watson and Wilson are both lefties that the team would prefer to keep in middle relief, it is hard to overlook just how dominant both have been at times with the game on the line. Morris has come back in 2014 looking like a completely different hurler, with his fastball hitting the mid-90’s and showing great movement on all of his pitches.
It is not a bad problem to have for the Bucs, but it is a problem that needs to be resolved soon. The Pirates are not going to outscore teams, and they need to be able to trust their closer to shut the door when they get a lead in the ninth inning. Current eighth-inning set-up man Mark Melancon showed in 2013 that he can be an effective closer, but he is so good at his current role that it would be a step backward to move him to the closer role. He needs to retain his current position as the “hand-off” to whomever the Bucs install as their closer.
Another option could be a closer by committee approach between Morris-Watson-Wilson. Hurdle could play the percentages and use each pitcher when the situation dictates. If the opposing team will be sending up tough left-handed hitters, either Wilson or Watson could shut the door. If the opposition has right-handed power due up, Morris would be the ticket. This approach has been used by many teams over the years with success, usually resulting in one pitcher taking over the job for themselves through sheer performance.
The Oakland Athletics brought in closer Jim Johnson this season at over $10 million per season, only to see him blow up early and be forced to go to a committee. Longtime journeyman relief pitcher Luke Gregerson seems to have now taken over as the closer, although the A’s still have several options available to them if Gregerson falters. The Pirates are blessed with a very solid array of relievers who could all close games, and they also have AAA-Indianapolis fireballer Duke Welker in the fold, available to be called up if needed with a great deal of closing experience in the minors.
Grilli has been a nice find for the Pirates, but he is simply another example of how tenuous the closing job can be. Just three years ago, Grilli was almost out of baseball before the Bucs plucked him away from the Philadelphia Phillies AAA team and brought his career back to life. Closers come and go, but contending teams in small markets need to ensure that they are utilizing every bit of the small window to contend that they have, and the Pirates are no different.
After making the postseason for the first time in two decades in 2013, the coaches and fans will of course want to remain loyal to the players who made that happen, but for the Pirates to build on that success, they need to evaluate every position on the team and ensure they are putting the best possible team on the field. Grilli may simply no longer be the best option for the Bucs ninth inning job.
