A few days ago, we took a peek at the possible free agents available to the Pittsburgh Pirates on the position end of the spectrum. Today, we will look at the potential pitching options that could be had for a team that may be looking to upgrade their rotation – with or without A.J. Burnett in tow.
The Burnett saga is ongoing. As it has been widely reported, Burnett is deciding between returning to the Pirates for one more season or retirement. He has no desire to test the free agent waters and go elsewhere, or at least that is the stance he has taken. All of this despite a rough patch in the relationship between Burnett and the Pirates that started when the veteran right-hander was skipped over for the start in Game 5 of the NLDS. Burnett is coming off of a long-deal term that he signed with the New York Yankees in 2009. When he was traded to the Pirates before the 2012 season, the Pirates agreed to take on $13m of the $33m left on that deal. A contract for Burnett at this point in his career would be a one-year deal in the neighborhood of $8m. He could probably get much more on the open market, but thus far, he has stuck to his Pittsburgh or bust guns. Even if the Pirates are able to bring Burnett back, they will still be looking for another veteran starter to help offset the talent differential between them and their N.L. Central rivals in St. Louis and Cincinnati.
Without Burnett, the Pirates would be looking at a rotation that includes the returning Francisco Liriano, Wandy Rodriguez, Charlie Morton, Jeff Locke and Gerrit Cole. Burnett would add a sixth-man to the possible rotation, but Locke is hardly a guy to be depended on after his disappointing second half of 2013. Adding another veteran starter who can be counted on for 200 IP should be a major concern for GM Neil Huntington. In-house candidates for a rotation spot include top pitching prospect Jameson Taillon, who spent 2013 between AA Altoona and AAA Indianapolis. Taillon seems to be ready to make the jump to Pittsburgh, and he will be in big league camp when Spring Training begins in February. The worst case scenario would be Taillon making an in-season debut, similar to Cole last summer. Other options include RHP Jeanmar Gomez, RHP Brandon Cumpton, LHP Kris Johnson and RHP Stolmy Pimental. If the Bucs feel that none are ready to grasp a full-time slot, they will go to the open market.
Former Indians and Rockies SP Ubaldo Jimenez enjoyed a fine comeback season in 2013, and he will command a hefty price-tag, despite the fact that 2013 was his first complete effective campaign since 2010. At just 29 years old, Jimenez will be looking for a long term (four to six years) contract for around $10m per season. That would be well out of the Pirates price range if Burnett returns. If Burnett chooses to retire, the Pirates would have a nice chunk of change to spend on a starter. Jimenez was a much better pitcher during his six years in the National League, with an career NL ERA of 3.66 – almost a full run better than his 4.45 American League ERA. Pitching in PNC Park would be a friendly environment for Jimenez, and he would have Francisco Liriano – a fellow Dominican Republic product – to help guide him into his Pittsburgh career. Whether the Pirates would be willing to meet the long-term demand is the question. The Bucs do not have a history of committing to pitchers for that many years, but times are changing in Pittsburgh and perhaps Jimenez could break the mold.
Bartolo Colon has defied logic over the past few years, completing his full-fledged comeback in 2013 by going 18-6 with a minuscule 2.65 ERA for the playoff-bound Oakland A’s. Colon was all but out of baseball just three years ago, missing the entire 2010 season and not being truly effective since way back in 2005. However, after hooking on with the Yankees in 2011, Colon slowly worked his way back into shape (well, a shape). Even at 40 years old, Colon seems like a pitcher who could be solid for another couple of seasons. His pitching repertoire consists of basically two pitches – a four-seam fastball that sits at 90-92mph and a two-seamer that barely hits 90mph. He occasionally mixes in a change up to tough left-handed hitters, but the lack of throwing breaking-style pitches has helped to preserve his arm. Colon should realistically be able to secure a one-year deal for between $8-10m based on his 2013 numbers. If he does not find a suitor at that range, the Pirates could be in on him for around $6m with an incentive-laded contract. Colon is another pitcher that could benefit from the presence of Francisco Liriano, not to mention pitching half his games at PNC Park.
The biggest prize of the starting pitching free agent field is probably RHP Matt Garza. Garza has been limited to 259 IP over the past two seasons, but he is a proven commodity and at 29 years old, he is still young enough to demand a long-term deal. He was a combined 10-6 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.236 WHIP in 24 starts with the Cubs and Rangers in 2013. Those numbers are right on pace with his career numbers, and Garza seems to be over the ailments that caused him to miss time in 2012. Garza has the intangible “toughness” tag, earned during the years he grinded out 34 wins as the ace of the Tampa Bay Rays staff. The expert opinion has Garza getting no less than a four-year deal worth $60m or more. That would be an enormous commitment for any team to make with Garza’s injury history. I mention Garza here only to show the top-tier of availability in the market, he is surely not a suitable free agent target for Pittsburgh unless his multi-year demands are not met and he ends up on a one or two-year deal.
RHP Ricky Nolasco has spent the better part of his eight-year career in the shadows of more accomplished teammates in Miami. Traded to the Dodgers last summer, he went on to post an 8-3 record with a 3.52 ERA in 15 starts for Los Angeles. That has pumped up his free agent value to that of a No. 2 or No. 3 starter. Nolasco is known as a workhorse, starting 30 or more games in five of the past six seasons. He would be a solid fit for the Pirates, and should fall into the middle-tier of available options. That would make his contract demands in the three-to-four year range, with money estimated around $9-11m per season. That would seem to limit his suitors to the teams that can afford a double-digit contract to a middle of the rotation starter. The Pirates would be smart to at least kick the tires on Nolasco.
A very interesting player for the Pirates would be RHP Bronson Arroyo, who started his career in Pittsburgh before achieving moderate success in Boston and Cincinnati. Arroyo is strictly a junk-ball pitcher, but he is good for 200 IP per season, and he has a great level of experience with the N.L. Central hitters. Now 37 years old, Arroyo is not going to command a budget-busting deal. Teams will be offering two-year deals, and once the market levels out it will be pitchers like Arroyo who end up with the $6-8m per year type contracts. If he makes it past the first round of signings, and the Reds do not make a play to keep him, Pittsburgh would seem to be a likely destination for Arroyo. As a dependable, late rotation starter, the Pirates could do much worse and his style would be a great contrast to the harder throwing Pirates starters.
The list of free agents contains many “project” type starters as well. It is here where the Pirates could find a gem or two. RHP Scott Feldman, LHP Jason Vargas, RHP Jason Hammel and LHP Scott Kazmir will all find contracts under their Christmas trees, and all could be had for bargain prices in an over-saturated market. Kazmir specifically has made a strong comeback after arm trouble turned a promising career into a pile of rubble. His 2013 season with the Indians came out of nowhere, and he made 29 starts for the Tribe during their playoff push. The former All-Star doesn’t quite have the overpowering stuff he did back in 2005-2009, but he seems to have reinvented himself and a switch to the National League could propel him to a significant season. Kazmir could end up getting a two-year deal, but more likely he will need to agree on a one-year deal to prove he is truly over his injury history. The Pirates could jump in on his bidding.
Another pitcher who seemed to be on his way to an All-Star career, RHP Josh Johnson was a hard-throwing ace for the Marlins in 2010 before injuries negated him to just nine starts in 2011. He returned to Miami in 2012, making 31 starts, but he seemed to lose the movement on his power arsenal. A trade to Toronto last year didn’t work out, and he is now on the open market. Johnson could be a real bargain if he can get back to where he was just two years ago. At one-year and $6-7m, he will have dozens of potential suitors. If a team offers a two-year deal, they could get a substantial decrease in guaranteed money. Johnson is only 29, and has less than 1,000 major league IP under his belt – way below the average for a nine-year veteran. The Pirates could find themselves getting a major return on their investment – think Liriano – should they decide to sign Johnson.
Some other veterans available that could have some usable miles left on their tires include RHP Dan Haren and LHP Paul Maholm. Haren was a major disappointment with the underachieving Nationals in 2013, and a return to his California roots are probably in order – the Giants, Dodgers, Angels, etc. will have the inside track on a one-year deal. Former Pirates lefty Maholm was one of the players who probably spent most of September and October wishing he were still wearing the Jolly Roger. Maholm was a major part of the Pirates losing streak, spending 2005-2011 toiling for the Buccos. He is still an effective National League, groundball hurler, and may even be willing to grant the Pirates a nice discount to return to Pittsburgh. Any more than a two-year deal would be overkill, but Maholm would fit in quite nicely as the fifth man in a rotation that he spent most of his career as the top starter. The Pirates will surely make an inquiry on the southpaw, and I’m betting that the interest will be mutual.
While there are plenty of top-end relief pitchers on the market, the Pirates do not typically spend money on bullpen arms. Even before the franchise revival of 2013, the Pirates were one of the best teams in the league at finding scrap-heap options and making them into reliable relievers. Even still, adding a quality middle-reliever such as RHP Jesse Crain, RHP Brian Wilson, RHP Joe Smith or former Cardinals closer Edward Mujica would be money well spent. The Pirates bullpen is loaded with young arms like Justin Wilson, Tony Watson, and Bryan Morris to go along with veterans Mark Melancon and Jason Grilli . There is really no need to add a veteran arm unless they can be had on a minor-league deal. Still, stranger things have happened, and the Pirates are one of the new “it” teams in major league baseball.
The Pirates free agent roller coaster will start with the A.J. Burnett decision. From there, they should be in line to be players on any number of these hurlers. The excitement of the 2013 season may be over, but Pirates fans are in for another treat as the snow falls. For the first time in decades, Pittsburgh is an attractive destination for free agents and G.M. Neil Huntington has some money to play with – making this hot stove season another interesting time for the team and its dedicated fanbase.
