For about five glorious minutes out of the sixty played last Monday night, the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3) looked unstoppable. Every play, every bounce went the way of the home team as luck was on their side, while the Houston Texans floundered and blew an early lead. On Sunday afternoon, Luck will be on the side of the visiting Indianapolis Colts (5-2), and that is bad news for a Steelers team trying to win two in a row for the first time this season.
That bad pun, of course, refers to third-year quarterback Andrew Luck. He is quickly becoming one of the league’s elite passers and on-field leaders. For a franchise that was spoiled by Peyton Manning for so long, the Colts have another gem at the game’s most important position, and placement atop the AFC South division standings is indicative of his impact.
The Stanford graduate leads the NFL in pass completions and attempts, yards and he is third in touchdowns behind Manning and Philip Rivers. His 65.9 percent completion percentage is tied with counterpart Ben Roethlisberger, who has ten touchdowns and three interceptions through seven games. Roethlisberger is taking care of the football for the most part, as his three picks are tied with Manning for the fewest by a quarterback with at least 250 attempts. Luck has thrown seven to go with his 19 touchdowns (nearly three per game), so the Steelers will look to make a big play or two in order to hamper the dynamic Colts offense.
Indianapolis scores a whopping 30.9 points per game, while allowing under 20 per game on defense. Offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton has been able to get that excellent production despite not having a well-established lead rusher. Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw share the workload, gaining 358 and 336 yards so far, respectively. This unit revolves all around Luck and the passing game, T.Y. Hilton and Reggie Wayne leading the way. Tight end Dwayne Allen has also been a factor, especially in the red zone. However, Wayne has already been ruled out of Sunday’s game and Richardson is highly questionable as well, so the Steelers defense may be catching a break heading into this matchup.
Still, this offense is second only to the Denver Broncos in points scored and points per game. Thanks to an Aryan Foster fumble deep in Houston territory last week, followed shortly thereafter by a Brett Keisel interception of Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Pittsburgh defense finally began to click and make impactful plays in the primetime victory last week. To keep Luck from lighting up the scoreboard all day Sunday and to give Roethlisberger a chance to keep the Pittsburgh offense rolling, the Steelers must have success in getting off the field on third down.
When they do have the football, Todd Haley and his offense will continue to look to Le’Veon Bell, who has at least 100 yards of offense in each game played this season. His 599 rushing yards are second only to DeMarco Murray, who is having an MVP-type season for Dallas in the NFC. With Bell and top receiver Antonio Brown, the Steelers have weapons in an offense that is totaling plenty of yards, but must continue to improve efficiency in the red zone and limiting turnovers.
Chuck Pagano’s Colts have won five straight following season-opening losses at Denver and to Philadelphia. Those wins include home wins against Pittsburgh’s AFC North division rivals, Baltimore and Cincinnati.
When: Sunday, October 26, 2014 – 4:30 pm EST
Where: Heinz Field – Pittsburgh, PA
Watch: CBS (Jim Nantz, Phil Simms)
Spread: Colts -3.5 (via Bovada)
Last Meeting: Pittsburgh won 23-20 at Indianapolis early in the 2011 season. Prior to that, the Colts won 24-20 in 2008, the team’s last visit to Heinz Field. Those are the only two times the teams have played since the 2006 playoff game at Indianapolis when Jerome Bettis fumbled at the goal-line and Roethlisberger had to make a shoestring tackle to save the game. Mike Vanderjagt missed a field goal late and the Steelers went on to win Super Bowl XL three weeks later.
Keys for Pittsburgh:
1) Control the clock early or else fall victim to the Colts doing just that. Luck and this offense have the ability to run long drive after long drive, tiring a defense and building an insurmountable lead.
2) The Colts have a fast defense, as it has long been the philosophy there to sacrifice size for speed. Pittsburgh’s offensive line must use its muscle and push back to make room again and again for Bell, Blount and even Dri Archer. Exhaust the front seven and open up the passing game as well, and this could be a shootout. Speaking of Archer, his speed and agility should be integrated more into Haley’s offense.
3) Plain and simple, you have to hit Luck a few times. Knock him around, chase him, make him uncomfortable and exploit a banged up offense that will definitely miss Wayne and maybe even Richardson.
Keys for Indianapolis:
1) Frankly, there is no reason the Colts cannot replicate the opening 20-25 minutes that the Texans had at Pittsburgh last week. Houston dominated and built a 13-0 lead before collapsing. If Indianapolis builds that kind of lead, trust that they won’t relinquish it as Houston did.
2) Pittsburgh has struggled to force turnovers in the past few years – that much is well-documented. Luck and the ball-carriers cannot give any gifts because, if they do, Pittsburgh is in this game.
3) Cortez Allen has been shaky in coverage since signing his contract extension and, simultaneously, having to step in for the injured Ike Taylor. He may be completely exposed Sunday if Hilton gets loose. With no Wayne, the Steelers may be able to give Allen help covering Hilton, but the pressure is still on Pittsburgh’s top cornerback to not break down.
Prediction: With alternating wins and losses now in the first seven games, the pattern trends to a Pittsburgh loss here in the eighth week. Until they actually show some consistency and resolve nagging issues, the Steelers cannot be trusted to beat a team as talented as the Colts. Indianapolis wins, 31-21.
