As the Pittsburgh Penguins 2015-16 season continues it has become even more readily apparent that Ian Cole is not suited to skating top pairing defensive minutes and has not clicked as a partner for Kris Letang. Their defensive struggles have led many to call for a change and find a new partner to skate with Letang, and of course Olli Maatta is the name on most everybody’s lips.
Over the summer, most people had penciled Maatta in to open the season skating alongside Letang. They had spent time together the previous season before Maatta re-injured his shoulder and people still fondly remember his impressive rookie season when he had to move up the depth chart to fill in for injuries. However, two shoulder surgeries later and having missed large parts of the past two seasons he had a less-than-impressive training camp and was unable to secure a spot skating alongside Letang.
Maatta has been improving as he gets more comfortable being back on the ice, but he still has not looked particularly good. He actually shows some nice chemistry with Rob Scuderi and is benefiting from playing a sheltered third pairing role, but when everybody’s favorite whipping boy is the one carrying the talented youngster there is obviously still something wrong.
Goal scoring What stands out to many people and makes them think Maatta has been having a strong season is his 5-on-5 3.85 goals for per 60 and 1.19 goals against per 60. At 5-on-5 Maatta has been on the ice for 13 of the Penguins 20 goals and just four of their 17 goals against. This is nearly the opposite of Letang who has been on the ice for just three goals for but 11 goals against.
However with this small of a sample size there is a lot more variability in goal scoring that may not accurately reflect a player’s true performance.
Shot generation When dealing with smaller numbers of games played it is often better to look at possession statistics to get an idea of how well a player is performing as they are much less likely to be influenced by a lucky bounce.
Maatta has the lowest 5-on-5 shots for per 60 of all the Penguins primary defensemen, 27.6 shots per 60 and 26.8 shots per 60 when the score is close. Individually only Scuderi shoots the puck less often, Maatta had just 2.96 shots per 60 and 3.15 shots per 60 when the score is close. This suggests that he is not just being dragged down by poorly performing linemates, he isn’t bringing much offense to the table either.
Defensively Maatta gives up a lot of 5-on-5 shots against as well, he allowed 29.6 shots against per 60 and was the worst on the team giving up 31.0 shots against per 60 when the score is close. This combined with the poor offensive numbers results in the team’s worst 5-on-5 differential, he has a 48.2 percent shots for percentage and 46.4 percent shots for percentage when the score is close.
Warning signs Maatta’s poor possession numbers are even more troubling when his usage is taken into account. Skating on the third pairing Maatta gets sheltered minutes playing against the least talented players opponents have to offer. In addition he has the most sheltered zone starts of any of the Penguins defensemen, starting in the offensive zone more often and the defensive zone less often than any other blue liner.
The Penguins would not be able to shelter him like this if he were on the top pairing with Letang. He would have to face tougher opponents and spend more time in his own end, which would more likely than not result in him getting outshot even more heavily than he already is. Additionally his impressive goal totals are offset by the giant red flag of a 1.100 PDO. PDO measures the player’s luck, with a value so far above 1.000 it is a foregone conclusion that he will regress to the mean and his totals will fall back down to Earth.
With the struggles that Cole and Letang have been having it is only natural to want to shake things up. Sometimes just the act of change itself is enough to spark a player to improve. However the underlying statistics suggest that Maatta would be even more exposed than he already is and that in his current state he is not capable of handling top pairing minutes.
