Yes, I know. Just yesterday I wrote about Andrew Lambo (FOUND HERE) and why the fans shouldn’t give up on him quite yet. While I meant that, let’s also point out that in said article, I listed myself as a Kendrys Morales guy. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports said yesterday that the Mariners, Orioles and the Pirates are all possibilities to land Morales during Spring Training.
I’m not going to give you the Wikipedia page on Morales and tell you about his freak injury that happened with the Angels, which forced him to miss the better part of two seasons. But what I will tell you is that Morales is a consistent, productive hitter. He’s nothing sexy to write home about, but the 30-year-old from Cuba will give you plus-average, 20-plus home runs and OK defense at a position that many consider a question mark.
When Morales turned down the $14.1 million qualifying offer from the Seattle Mariners, Morales’ agent, Scott Boras, thought the open market would be more lucrative for the first baseman/designated hitter. While teams are interested in his talent, they aren’t interested in giving away a first-round draft pick for him.
This is where the Pirates find themselves. Morales could fill a need, or at least be a veteran upgrade with the departure of Garrett Jones to the Miami Marlins, but they don’t want to give up the 25th overall pick on top of what Morales will make with his salary.
Now, the Pirates could always try to work a trade out, as they’ve been exploring this offseason, for the likes of Mitch Moreland, Justin Smoak or Ike Davis. If I’m a Pirates fan, I’d be OK with that, but I’d prefer Morales, even if he costs more. The Pirates aren’t a team that can sign a Robinson Cano or Masahiro Tanaka when they hit the open market, but a guy like Morales is the type of player they can and should sign, especially with the current makeup up their team.
The Pirates live and die through the draft — that’s no secret — but giving up the 25th overall pick in the draft for a player like Morales who has a track record is the move to make. There are no sure things in the MLB draft, but after about the first 12-13 picks, it really becomes a crapshoot. Players like Michael Wacha and Mike Trout were selected in the latter parts of the first round, which makes teams hesitant to part with those picks, just in case they can hit on the next big thing.
Let’s take a look at first-round picks from 2005 to 2011 between 20-30 in the first round.
2005:
Mark Pawelek, Cliff Pennington, Aaron Thompson, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian Bogusevic, Matt Garza, Craig Hansen, Joey Devine, Colby Rasmus, Jacob Marceaux, Tyler Greene
2006:
Chris Parmelee, Ian Kennedy, Colton Willems, Maxwell Sapp, Cody Johnson, Hank Conger, Bryan Morris, Jason Place, Daniel Bard, Kyle McCulloch, Adam Ottavino
2007:
Chris Withrow, J.P. Arencibia, Tim Alderson, Nick Schmidt, Michael Main, Aaron Poreda, James Simmons, Rick Porcello, Ben Revere, Wendell Fairley, Andrew Brackman
2008:
Josh Fields, Ryan Perry, Reese Havens, Allan Dykstra, Anthony Hewitt, Christian Friedrich, Daniel Schlereth, Carlos Gutierrez, Gerrit Cole, Lonnie Chisenhall, Casey Kelly
2009:
Chad Jenkins, Jiovanni Mier, Kyle Gibson, Jared Mitchell, Randal Grichuk, Mike Trout, Eric Arnett, Nick Franklin, Raymond Fuentes, Slade Heathcott, LeVon Washington
2010:
Kolbrin Vitek, Alex Wimmers, Kellin Deglan, Christian Yelich, Gary Brown, Zack Cox, Kyle Parker, Jesse Biddle, Zach Lee, Cam Bedrosian, Chevy Clarke
2011:
Tyler Anderson, Tyler Beede, Kolten Wong, Alex Meyer, Taylor Guerrieri, Joseph Ross, Blake Swihart, Robert Stephenson, Sean Gilmartin, Joe Panik, Levi Michael
Now, who in that list really excites you? Sure, you have a few guys with a Major League pedigree (Trout, Ellsbury, Revere, Garza) some guys who have been so-so (Franklin, Porcello, Rasmus, Arencibia) and guys with hype coming into this year (Cole — decided to go to college —, Wong, Yelich, Chisenhall), but are there that many guys in that seven-year span you’d prefer over Morales?
Say, for arguments sake, that you like the 12 players mentioned in the last paragraph that panned out or somewhat panned out, that’s 12 players out of 77 (15.5 percent) that were drafted between 20-30 during that span. The standouts like the Ellsburys, Trouts and Wachas (19th overall in 2012) are a big reason why teams don’t want to give up that pick.
The “risk” is limited. The worries about Morales’ defense overblown, as he’s played a lot of DH in his past. Over his career, Morales has played 343 games at first base, which translates into 2,858.2 innings. During that time, Morales has committed just 17 errors, good for a .994 fielding percentage. In comparison, Jones, the man he’d essentially replace, played 339 game at first base (2,651.1 innings) with 24 errors and a .992 fielding percentage. In the same sample size, the two are practically the same, with the edge going to Morales.
I’m not a WAR fan, at all, but he was 2.7 last year and 2.2 the year before. His numbers — can we still look at these to measure a player, or is it officially old-school now? — have been consistent, with a slash line of .280/.333/.467 for his career.
If you’re not a Morales fan, I get it that. I know plenty of people who aren’t. But if the only reason you don’t want to go after him is losing the 25th overall pick in the draft, then I don’t get that. I’ll go with Morales, while you can take your chances on the next Mike Trout. Hey, who knows, maybe it will end up being the next Hank Conger instead.
