Just two weeks remain in the NFL regular season and a lot will be determined regarding the AFC playoff picture at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh. In Week 16 on Sunday, the Steelers (9-5) will host the Kansas City Chiefs (8-6) as the two teams battle for one of two Wild Card berths. Pittsburgh also remains very much alive for the AFC North crown and a guaranteed home playoff game.
The Steelers are 4-2 at home this season and the final two games will be played there against contenders. While the Chiefs cannot win the AFC West, already clinched by Denver, a win in Pittsburgh would help them pass the Steelers in the standings heading into the final week. Head coach Andy Reid’s Chiefs are the first team on the outside looking in, currently sitting in the seventh slot of the AFC standings. They play San Diego at home next week to close out the season. Pittsburgh, hoping for a Monday night loss by division-leading Cincinnati (9-4-1), may have an opportunity to win the division outright in Week 17 by sweeping the Bengals.
First, however, they must send the Chiefs packing. The Steelers have among the simplest of playoff-clinching scenarios on Sunday. Win, and they’re in. Once clinching at least a Wild Card berth, then the focus would shift to winning the division. A loss on Sunday would make life very difficult for the Steelers, as they would need a win over Cincinnati plus additional help to win either a Wild Card spot or an AFC North title. The Baltimore Ravens (9-5) are also still very relevant in both races, currently sitting in the second Wild Card spot and hoping for losses by both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati to put them in the driver’s seat as they host Cleveland next week. The Ravens are in Houston on Sunday.
In the Chiefs-Steelers matchup, success of the ground games ought to determine the outcome. Both teams have top-tier backs in Jamaal Charles and Le’Veon Bell. Pittsburgh’s Bell is second in the league in rushing yards (1,278) and Charles, despite missing some time this season, is on pace for 1,000 yards (currently at 950) and averages over five yards per carry. Knile Davis is also a fine compliment in the Chiefs backfield, averaging 3.6 yards per carry and boasting six touchdowns on the stat sheet.
Pittsburgh boasts a top-tier passing attack in addition to Bell’s prowess on the ground, led by QB Ben Roethlisberger and WR Antonio Brown. Roethlisberger is second in the league with 4,415 passing yards and Brown leads all receivers with 1,498 yards. That pass offense will have to go against Kansas City’s second-ranked pass defense, which allows just 199.2 yards per game despite being in the same division as Denver’s Peyton Manning and San Diego’s Philip Rivers. Also of note, the Chiefs dominated Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in Week 4, limiting Brady to 159 yards, forcing two interceptions and eventually coaxing Bill Belichick to bring in backup Jimmy Garoppolo.
On offense for Kansas City, QB Alex Smith tends to avoid major mistakes, throwing just six interceptions on the season. But at 2,954 yards, he has about 1,500 less than Roethlisberger and his top receiver is tight end Travis Kelce. Dwayne Bowe is the best receiver of a group that, remarkably, has not yet caught a touchdown pass from Smith. Of his 18 touchdown throws, nine have gone to tight ends, eight to running backs and one to a fullback. Donnie Avery played in four games before missing eight due to injury, but he has returned and played the last two games. He and Bowe and Kelce may benefit from a banged-up Steelers secondary that will almost certainly be without Troy Polamalu and Ike Taylor. Veteran safety Will Allen, second-year safety Shamarko Thomas, and cornerbacks William Gay, Antwon Blake and Brice McCain are among those expected to step up to replace the long-time members of Dick LeBeau’s pass defense.
Also questionable for the Steelers is backup tight end Matt Spaeth. Tackle Marcus Gilbert and linebacker James Harrison are expected to return to action. For the Chiefs, linebacker Tamba Hali is questionable and Bowe is also listed as such due to illness earlier this week, though he is expected to play.
When: Sunday, December 21, 2014 – 1:00 pm EST
Where: Heinz Field – Pittsburgh, PA
Watch: CBS (Greg Gumbel, Trent Green)
Spread: Steelers -3 (via Bovada)
Last Meeting: The Steelers defeated the Chiefs 16-3 in November 2012 and have won the past two, three of four and four of six. Kansas City has not won a game in Pittsburgh since 1986, going 0-4 in that 28 year span.
Keys for Pittsburgh:
1) With so many weapons in addition to Brown, Roethlisberger will need to find a way to cut through the stout Chiefs secondary in order to alleviate pressure on Bell to be the main man in the Steelers offense, especially this late in the season. The workload on Bell has been significant, especially since the departure of LeGarrette Blount. Markus Wheaton, Martavis Bryant and the always reliable Heath Miller will need to find ways to get open and, most importantly, catch the ball when it is thrown their way.
2) Speaking of Bell, he has 76 receptions for 765 yards, often being a quick option for Roethlisberger when no one is open downfield. Kansas City’s Justin Houston leads the NFL with 17 sacks and, even though the Pittsburgh offensive line has improved mightily under new coach Mike Munchak, Houston and the Chiefs pass rush should be a grave concern. Keep Big Ben upright and use Bell in the short passing game to get rid of the ball under duress.
3) Stop the run. Stop Jamaal Charles. Stop Knile Davis. Force Alex Smith to force throws to his nonexistent group of receivers. Cover Travis Kelce across the middle. Do not allow the Chiefs to score any points via their defense or special teams…make this offense produce and earn everything. If Charles is bottled up for the most part by Pittsburgh’s 11th-ranked rush defense, Kansas City may not score much on Sunday.
Keys for Kansas City:
1) See #3 above? Get Charles going and pray that he has the kind of day that made him a top-three pick on most fantasy football boards back in August. He is dangerous, speedy, shifty, smart and can carry his team if necessary. If you haven’t seen him play, picture Le’Veon Bell on his best day – that’s Charles most weeks, when healthy.
2) Despite owning an elite pass defense statistically, Kansas City has a league-low four interceptions this season and no player has more than one. If they are able to pressure Roethlisberger, forcing a fumble or interception would likely swing the game in their favor in this playoff atmosphere on the road. The Chiefs have just ten total takeaways and are minus-6 in turnover differential.
3) More on the Chiefs defense: they rank second in the league in holding opposing QBs to a 57.6 percent completion rate and with 38 sacks are in the top ten in that category. If Roethlisberger plays like he has in most games at home this season, Kansas City can begin looking forward to baseball season.
Prediction: This will be a feisty battle in a chilly, wet December atmosphere. Both teams have mostly played up to their competition in 2014, so I don’t see Pittsburgh overlooking the Chiefs, who are a playoff-caliber team for the second straight year under Reid. They will not let up in this late-season push towards the playoffs. Pittsburgh wins, 20-14, making the playoffs and making us all ashamed we left them for dead after losses to Tampa Bay, Cleveland, the New York Jets and the Saints.
