After an offseason in which the Pittsburgh Pirates made minor moves to improve their starting rotation, it seems as if a battle for the final starting rotation spot has begun between Jeff Locke and Juan Nicasio.
One season after they were ranked the second-best pitching staff in baseball in terms of total Earned Run Average (3.21 team ERA), the Pirates are rebuilding a rotation that is looking to replace starters A.J. Burnett, who says he retired in the offseason, and Charlie Morton, who was traded to the Philadelphia Phillies in December. In the offseason, the Pirates added left-hander Jonathon Niese in a trade that sent Neil Walker to the New York Mets, and signed 38-year-old Ryan Vogelsong to a one-year contract. After acquiring these two pitchers, it was believed that they would be the solidified number three and four pitchers in the Pirates rotation. However, after the trade of Morton, it opened the door once again for Jeff Locke to remain in the hunt for a starting spot.
Since making his major league debut in 2011, Locke has been both good and bad at times. In 2011, the 28-year-old had a very up and down season, posting an 8-2 record with a 2.15 ERA in 18 starts prior to the All-Star break and being named to his first career All-Star game. In the second half, Locke was a much different pitcher, posting a 2-5 record with a 6.12 ERA in his final 12 starts. Locke has never been much of a strikeout pitcher, but his sinker and changeup have been good enough for him to be a quality back of the rotation starter throughout his career.
In his last two seasons Locke has remained inconsistent and now sees himself in a situation in which he may be pushed out of the starting rotation once the regular season begins on April 3. Locke has also struggled this spring, compiling a 1-3 record with a 6.63 ERA in five starts. He has only walked five hitters in 19 total innings this spring, but he has allowed four home runs and a .282 opposing batting average.
A battle for the final starting rotation spot is not a surprising turn of events, but the fact that Juan Nicasio is involved may arguably be the biggest story of the spring thus far.
Nicasio, who was signed to a one-year contract by the Pirates in December, spent all of 2015 pitching for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Pitching primarily out of the bullpen, the 29-year-old made 53 total appearances for the Dodgers, including one start in game one of a doubleheader against the Colorado Rockies on June 2. The outing ended up being a bullpen game for the Dodgers, as Nicasio only pitched two innings while giving up one run on three hits and striking out one.
This spring, Nicasio has been flawless in his new role for the Pirates. In five total appearances (four starts), Nicasio has yet to give up a run in 15 innings of work while holding opposing hitters to a .189 batting average and compiling 24 strikeouts. He was exceptionally good in his outing on March 16, as Nicasio struck out ten hitters while only giving up one hit in four innings of work against the Baltimore Orioles.
Despite the spring success of Nicasio and the inconsistency of Locke, I would have to see a little bit more from Nicasio to be completely convinced that he could be a back of the rotation starter for the Pirates. He has had a tremendous spring, but the question really is, will he be as tremendous when the games begin to count? Nicasio, who has started 70 games in his major league career while sporting a career 4.88 ERA, is coming off of a season in which he did not pitch more than three innings in a single game. Though this may not seem like a big issue, it could be. A quality start for a pitcher would be pitching five to six solid innings, and I am interested to see if Nicasio could consistently do this once the regular season gets underway. He has starting experience, as he made 69 career starts for the Colorado Rockies from 2011-2014, but his inning totals may be something to keep an eye on.
With the first four rotation spots basically solidified, the race for the final rotation spot is an interesting one for the Pirates. Both Nicasio and Locke have each made at least four starts this spring and, while one has struggled, the other has excelled. Despite my concerns regarding Nicasio’s ability to pitch more innings or not having seen enough of him to make this important decision going into Opening Day, I don’t think it is unrealistic to think that Locke’s tenure in the Pirates bullpen could be over. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Locke beat out Nicasio based on having more experience as a starting pitcher at the big league level.
With ten days separating the Pirates from their Opening Day matchup with the St. Louis Cardinals at PNC Park, decisions will soon be made. Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano, Jonathon Niese and Ryan Vogelsong will likely take up the first four spots in the rotation, but questions surround the fifth spot. Do you give it to Nicasio based on his stellar spring or do you give it to Locke based on his proven experience, good or bad, as a big league starter? Only time will tell who wins the battle as the Pirates keep everyone in suspense regarding this hot topic going into the regular season.
