No. 23 Pitt and North Carolina head into a Thursday night battle at Heinz Field with identical 6-1 records. First place in the ACC Coastal Division will be on the line as each team has something to prove.
For the Panthers they need to validate their hot start to the season and make themselves legitimate threats for the Coastal Division title.
While Pitt hasn’t beaten great teams, the North Carolina schedule has been especially soft. The Heels have beaten a pair of FCS schools and their best win on the season has been against Georgia Tech, who Pitt also defeated. For the Heels, they are out to prove one of two things. Either they are for real or they are a product of a soft schedule.
We will find out some answers about both teams Thursday night.
Who has the advantage?
Let’s take a look.
When: Thursday, October 29
Where: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA.
Time: 7 p.m. EST
Watch: ESPN
Spread: UNC (-3)
Series History:
Series Began: 1974
Series Overall: UNC leads 6-3
At Pittsburgh: Series tied 2-2
At UNC: UNC leads 4-0
At Neutral Sites: Pitt leads 1-0 (2009 Meineke Car Care Bowl: Pitt 19, UNC 17)
Last Meeting: Nov. 15, 2014 (UNC 40, Pitt 35)
Last Meeting at Pitt: Nov. 16, 2013 (UNC 34, Pitt 27)
Current Series Streak: UNC has won 2 (2013-14)
Longest Pitt Series Win Streak: 1 game (three times)
Longest UNC Series Win Streak: 2 games, twice (1998, 2000; 2013-14)
Largest Pitt Victory Margin: 4 points (20-16, 1978)
Largest UNC Victory Margin: 19 points (29-10, 1998)
Largest Pitt victory Margin:
Largest xxx Victory Margin:
Keys for No. 23 Pitt (6-1, 4-0 ACC):
1. Tackle-The Pitt defense has been much better under Pat Narduzzi, but if they play the way they did in the first half against Syracuse then they will not win the game. The Panthers must tackle better. Period. It will be hard against an athletic quarterback such as Marquise Williams, but it really all comes down to tackling for the Pitt defense.
2. Run the football-If I am Pitt then I am playing this game the same way I finished last one- with a heavy dose of Qadree Ollison. The Heels have the 112th-ranked rushing defense in the nation and while their defense is also improved from a season ago, they can be run on. Running the ball effectively will set up a ton of possibilities in the passing game, but things will be that much tougher without a big day from Ollison. Plus the more the Panthers control the clock, the more Williams and the UNC offense spends on the sidelines.
3. Contain Williams- Williams will present a challenge for the Panthers defense. There’s no doubting that. UNC is averaging 11 points more per game than Pitt, so preventing Williams from making big plays will be vital. Williams is one of the better dual threats in the country. He’s completing 66 percent of his passes, and is very dangerous with his legs, averaging 7.0 yards per carry on the season. Pitt has a much better pass rush than the Tar Heels so getting to Williams will be key. The senior is also mistake prone, having thrown seven interceptions on the season. Williams can be rattled and it is up to the Pitt defense to do so. The Panthers defense is ranked No. 16 in the country. While the North Carolina offense has put up some big numbers, they haven’t done so against a unit as good as the Pitt defense.
Keys for North Carolina (6-1, 3-0):
1. Slow down Tyler Boyd- We have witnessed Boyd not only be a prolific receiver as of late, but he has ran the ball and even completed passes two weeks in a row. The Carolina secondary leads the ACC in pass defense and ranks No. 10 nationally in pass efficiency defense. But they haven’t seen Boyd yet. The Tar Heels have yet to allow 200 yards passing in a game to any opponent, but have recorded only six sacks this season, ranking 124th. They have faced a lot of primarily ground teams and if they can’t apply pressure to Panthers quarterback Nate Peterman, they will have to trust their secondary to slow down Boyd. Easier said than done.
2. Use your weapons- UNC not only boasts a talented QB in Williams, but a power back in Elijah Hood and four receivers with at least 300 receiving yards. They are third nationally in yards per play, and have the big play capabilities that Pitt hasn’t seen yet this season. A big key for UNC will be to get all their weapons involved and not be predictable as an offense. North Carolina is one of just 10 teams in the country to average more than 200 yards rushing and 250 yards passing and will need an effort like that on Thursday night.
3. Force Turnovers- Two 6-1 teams. Two undefeated teams in conference battling for the top spot in the Coastal Division. Playing on the road and on a short week, the UNC defense is going to have to win the turnover battle to win the game. The Tar Heels are allowing only 16.7 points per game and will need some big plays from their defense.
Prediction: This has the makings of a great game that pits strength against strength. Carolina has the far better offense, but there is just something about this Pitt team and I believe their defense will be able to slow that offense down. The Panthers will be able to run the football which will be big and I look for that defense to make a few big plays that change the game. The Panthers are 5-1 in games decided by single digits and that will play big here as everyone’s favorite hero will do it for a third consecutive week. A late field goal from Chris Blewitt gives the Panthers a win. Pitt 27, North Carolina 24
Photo Credit: Sarah Shaw / The Daily Tar Heel
