Over the past 5 weeks the number 1 team in the country has lost each week. Countless other teams in the top 25 have been upset. They must be beaten up on each other right? Wrong, in the world of college basketball uncertainty and upsets are the only things constants. A last place team in conference beat the top team in the conference, done (TCU over Kansas). A team that previously lost to Columbia by double-digits beat 2 top-5 teams in one week, done (Villanova over Louisville and Syracuse). And a team that was 8-0 in conference at the time and beating conference foes by an average of 26.5 pts a game lose by double-digits to unranked team. Yes that happened as well when Arkansas defeated Florida.
Why does this happen when clearly on paper one team is superior to the other? One team is littered with former top recruits while the other has zero top 100 recruits. One coach has been to the final four while the other has limited tournament success. Here are my 3 reasons why upsets occur at such a frequent rate.
1.) Playing at home: There is no place like home and this is certainly true with college basketball. Playing at home gives a distinct advantage and it has been said that is equates to 6-8 point lead. Basically the away team needs to be 8 points better than the home team just to be even with them. Does Wisconsin beat Michigan if the game is played in Ann Arbor? Most likely not, but playing in Madison gave the Badgers an edge where they are 166-15 at home under Bo Ryan.
2.) Hunter vs. Hunted: Being a top ranked team isn’t easy. Every team on your schedule knows what you are ranked. They want to be the one that takes down Goliath. They’re the underdogs and have nothing to lose. They are going to give it their all and see if they can stand tall against you. Playing at an elite level for 30 games for 40 minutes is tough as teams will drop to the level of their opponents. This happened when Illinois upset Indiana last week on February 7 when the Illini closed the game on 12-2 run. Indiana let their guard for one second and it resulted in another upset.
3.) Getting that signature win: Playing a ranked team is great opportunity for any team. For some teams it’s a chance to solidify themselves as a tournament team. Others it’s a chance to prove themselves as top team and improve their chances of locking down 1-4 seed for the tournament. And then there is team that has underachieved but now has a chance to right their wrong. Maryland has been a consistently inconsistent so far in the ACC yet on Saturday February 16th, the Terps welcomed Duke to their arena. In a game that Maryland desperately needed for their resume, the Terrapins got the job done.
With the NCAA tournament only weeks away, upsets will continue to happen as teams fight their way to the tournament. Expect the unexpected and enjoy the ride.
