The Pittsburgh Penguins essentially wrapped up their offseason Tuesday afternoon when they announced the signing of restricted free agent Brandon Sutter to a two-year, $6.6 million contract.
Factoring in probable healthy scratches during the upcoming season, the Penguins have less than $500,000 left to spend under the salary cap, so this is the roster they will likely take into opening night against Anaheim on Oct. 9.
General manager Jim Rutherford has said he’ll reassess the team around the holidays before deciding on what adjustments need to be made via trade. However, the first 30 games or so will feature Sutter as the Penguins’ No. 3 center.
That’s a little scary, whether you look at the 25-year-old’s traditional “boxcar” numbers of goals, assists and points, or the possession-based metrics. Based on measures both old-school and new-age, Sutter had a disappointing 2013-14.
But although the Alberta native put up just 26 points (13g, 13a) in 81 games last season, his playoff output – five goals and seven total points – was difficult to ignore. Especially in the first round against Columbus, Sutter was a true secondary scoring threat, writing his name on the scoresheet in five of six games.
That’s always been the case for Sutter, hasn’t it? He has displayed a knack for scoring impressive goals, many of them happening at key moments of big games. At this point the Bruins must fear him just as much as they do Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin. Since arriving in Pittsburgh in June 2012, Sutter has made showing flashes of promise into an art form.
Nevertheless, if you look at Sutter’s six-year NHL career, it’s probable that he is what he is at this point. He scored 40 points (21g, 19a) in 2009-10 with Carolina, his first full season in the league, but he hasn’t been able to match those numbers since.
That isn’t to say that Sutter robbed the Penguins with this contract, which makes him the team’s sixth-highest paid forward based on average annual salary. That sounds about right, although Sutter could provide a ton of value at $3.3 million per year if his game continues to develop.
Part of Sutter’s problem in Pittsburgh – and I’ve argued this before – has been the lack of support he’s gotten. Sutter’s three most common linemates in 2013-14 were Tanner Glass, Brian Gibbons and Craig Adams, all of whom won’t or shouldn’t be back next season.
Instead, the likes of Nick Spaling, Steve Downie, Blake Comeau and/or Beau Bennett could find themselves on Sutter’s flanks come October. Any of those gentlemen would provide some degree of upgrade over the baggage Sutter had to carry on the third line last season.
That isn’t to say Sutter is/was blameless for his lackluster first two years with the Penguins. Weak linemates aside, he posted an ugly 43 percent Corsi rating in 2013-14, which means when he was on the ice, Pittsburgh generated just 43 percent of the shot attempts taken. That figure was about 7 percent worse that the Pens’ team average.
He wasn’t any better in the lockout season either, and those troubling possession numbers come while he played against some of the weakest competition on the team. Crosby and Malkin took on more of the tough defensive assignments last season, which doesn’t match up with Sutter’s reputation as a good defensive forward.
Simple observation betrays holes in Sutter’s game, too. On many occasions, his 6-foot-3, 185-pound frame gets overpowered in high-traffic areas, and he shows a passivity that counteracts his excellent skating stride.
Sutter will have to take steps forward in order to demonstrate his worth to the Penguins, but at 25 he can still be expected to improve. He should look at this two-year deal as a challenge to get better. If he does, he could make himself a major part of Pittsburgh’s efforts for several years.
If not, the Pens haven’t committed too much to a player whose inconsistent tendencies leave many lukewarm.
(Photo: Charles LeClaire – USA Today Sports Images)
