It’s funny. On July 4, I said this week is a make-or-break week to keep the Pirates’ playoff hopes alive. All they’ve done since is take the first two games of the series against the Cardinals — in St. Louis — to push Pittsburgh’s winning streak to six games. Suddenly, the Chicago Cubs are in reach, and the magnitude of this weekend’s series against Chicago is even bigger.
Still, I don’t think, under any circumstances, the Pirates will be able to win the NL Central. If they get into the playoffs, it will be as a wild card team.
If the Pirates do make it into the wild card game, they’d once again have the daunting task of facing not only the opposing team’s de facto ace, but a legitimate, true ace, something the Pirates lack. Yes, Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon have the potential to be aces — but not this year. Yes, Gerrit Cole is the “team’s” ace, but he’s not a true ace in the sense of the word around baseball. He is, however, a safe floor pitcher with a low variance of outcomes. If you need six or seven innings with two or three earned runs, Cole’s your guy.
But, in the playoffs, with the current layout of the NL, the Pirates will get one of six true aces or, in the best-case scenario, the Cardinals’ Adam Wainwright..
Fangraphs has a running playoff expectancy. Here are the live projections as of 10:15 a.m. on July 6.
| 2016 Year to Date | 2016 Projected Standings / Playoff Probabilities | |||||||||||||
| Team | W | L | W% | GB | EXPW | EXPL | rosW% | DIV | WC | POFF | DOFF | NLDS | NLCS | WS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | 50 | 35 | .588 | 0.0 | 94.3 | 67.7 | .575 | 76.1 % | 17.0 % | 93.1 % | 84.7 % | 44.0 % | 22.5 % | 11.7 % |
| Mets | 45 | 38 | .542 | 4.0 | 88.9 | 73.1 | .556 | 19.9 % | 41.6 % | 61.6 % | 41.0 % | 19.7 % | 8.9 % | 4.4 % |
| Marlins | 44 | 40 | .524 | 5.5 | 84.5 | 77.5 | .519 | 4.0 % | 18.2 % | 22.2 % | 12.1 % | 4.7 % | 2.0 % | 0.8 % |
| Phillies | 39 | 46 | .459 | 11.0 | 70.1 | 91.9 | .403 | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Braves | 28 | 56 | .333 | 21.5 | 59.4 | 102.6 | .403 | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| 2016 Year to Date | 2016 Projected Standings / Playoff Probabilities | |||||||||||||
| Team | W | L | W% | GB | EXPW | EXPL | rosW% | DIV | WC | POFF | DOFF | NLDS | NLCS | WS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | 52 | 31 | .627 | 0.0 | 98.0 | 64.0 | .583 | 95.6 % | 3.3 % | 98.9 % | 97.5 % | 54.0 % | 29.9 % | 17.3 % |
| Cardinals | 43 | 40 | .518 | 9.0 | 86.4 | 75.6 | .549 | 3.5 % | 33.3 % | 36.9 % | 19.6 % | 8.7 % | 4.0 % | 1.8 % |
| Pirates | 43 | 41 | .512 | 9.5 | 82.8 | 79.2 | .510 | 0.8 % | 11.6 % | 12.4 % | 6.0 % | 2.3 % | 0.8 % | 0.3 % |
| Brewers | 37 | 46 | .446 | 15.0 | 72.8 | 89.2 | .454 | 0.0 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Reds | 31 | 54 | .365 | 22.0 | 61.9 | 100.1 | .401 | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| 2016 Year to Date | 2016 Projected Standings / Playoff Probabilities | |||||||||||||
| Team | W | L | W% | GB | EXPW | EXPL | rosW% | DIV | WC | POFF | DOFF | NLDS | NLCS | WS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | 53 | 33 | .616 | 0.0 | 93.5 | 68.5 | .533 | 60.7 % | 30.4 % | 91.0 % | 75.9 % | 34.2 % | 15.4 % | 7.2 % |
| Dodgers | 48 | 38 | .558 | 5.0 | 91.6 | 70.4 | .574 | 39.3 % | 44.0 % | 83.3 % | 62.8 % | 32.2 % | 16.4 % | 9.1 % |
| Rockies | 38 | 45 | .458 | 13.5 | 75.5 | 86.5 | .475 | 0.0 % | 0.3 % | 0.4 % | 0.2 % | 0.1 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Diamondbacks | 38 | 48 | .442 | 15.0 | 74.5 | 87.5 | .480 | 0.0 % | 0.2 % | 0.2 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Padres | 36 | 48 | .429 | 16.0 | 70.3 | 91.7 | .440 | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
Of the eight teams in contention, the Pirates have the lowest shot of making the playoffs at 12.4 percent.
So, if the Pirates are able to go against the projections and, say, win the wild card game, how will they fare against the top pitchers on other contending teams? Let’s take a look at the tendencies and peripherals of Jose Fernandez (Marlins), Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers), Jake Arrieta (Cubs), Wainwright (Cardinals), Noah Syndergaard (Mets), Max Scherzer (Nationals) and Madison Bumgarner (Giants).
**Note: These stats are as of 11 a.m. on July 6. Injuries (Kershaw’s back, Syndergaard’s elbow) and other circumstances (Fernandez inning count) aren’t predictive for the playoffs**
| K/9 | BB/9 | Avg velo | Strand rate | BABIP | FIP | XFIP | Hard contact | HR/FB | Pull rate | LD rate | FB | |
| Jose Fernandez | 13.1 | 2.78 | 83.3-95 | 75.9% | 0.313 | 2.18 | 2.39 | 32.6% | 10.4% | 30.7% | 26.3% | 32.1% |
| Clayton Kershaw | 10.79 | 0.67 | 73.1-92.9 | 79.7% | 0.262 | 1.69 | 2.17 | 29.1% | 7.4% | 42.5% | 21.1% | 29% |
| Jake Arrieta | 9.55 | 3.49 | 80.7-94 | 79.3% | 0.251 | 2.89 | 3.41 | 23.6% | 6.9% | 37% | 19.4% | 26.4% |
| Adam Wainwright | 6.71 | 2.44 | 74.1-90.3 | 67% | 0.325 | 3.61 | 4.16 | 30.8% | 8.3% | 39.9% | 25.6% | 30% |
| Noah Syndergaard | 10.96 | 1.34 | 82.3-98.1 | 77.5% | 0.339 | 1.88 | 2.33 | 28.2% | 7.6% | 37.4% | 21.2% | 25.9% |
| Max Scherzer | 11.56 | 2.39 | 78.6-94.2 | 84.8% | 0.243 | 3.71 | 3.24 | 27.2% | 16.3% | 41.3% | 18.5% | 46.9% |
| Madison Bumgarner | 9.85 | 2.31 | 74.2-91.1 | 85.30% | 0.262 | 3.14 | 3.57 | 32.5% | 9.7% | 42.9% | 20.3% | 40% |
| GB | o Sw % | Whiff rate | Pitch type (usage) | Pitch type | Pitch type | Pitch type | Pitch type | |
| Jose Fernandez | 41.60% | 33% | 14.90% | Fastball (54.4) | Change (13.1) | Slider (25) | Curve (7.4) | |
| Clayton Kershaw | 49.80% | 33.80% | 16.10% | Fastball (50.3) | Slider (34) | Curve (15.3) | Change (0.5) | |
| Jake Arrieta | 54.20% | 29.20% | 9.00% | Fastball (63.6) | Cutter (20.4) | Curve (11.9) | Change (4.1) | |
| Adam Wainwright | 44.40% | 29.50% | 8.10% | Fastball (41.3) | Cutter (28.4) | Curve (28.7) | Change (1.6) | |
| Noah Syndergaard | 52.90% | 37.40% | 15.30% | Fastball (57.7) | Slider (21.4) | Curve (9.1) | Change (11.8) | |
| Max Scherzer | 34.50% | 33.20% | 15.20% | Fastball (54.0) | Slider (21.4) | Cutter (2.1) | Curve (2.8) | Change (14.3) |
| Madison Bumgarner | 39.70% | 29.80% | 11.30% | Fastball (51) | Slider (34.3) | Curve (12) | Change (2.7) | |
OK, so the numbers the pitchers produce are obviously solid, as they’re all ace-caliber (minus Wainwright). But how do their numbers compare with the Pirates’ tendencies against right- and left-handed pitchers?
| BABIP | Pull% | Hard hit% | HR/FB | FB | GB | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | O-Swing% | Whiff | |
| Pirates vs RHP | 0.320 | 38.30% | 29% | 11% | 30.20% | 48.40% | 20.50% | 8% | 0.322 | 1.02 | 27.80% | 9.80% |
| Pirates vs LHP | 0.333 | 43.50% | 34.20% | 12.60% | 33.50% | 46.60% | 24.20% | 9.70% | 0.328 | 1.07 | 27.80% | 9.80% |
| wFB | wSL | wCT | wCB | wCH | wSF | |
| Pirates | 47.5 | -33.5 | -4.6 | -4.2 | 7.1 | 1.2 |
The Pirates’ splits are pretty much equal. The main differences are in BABIP against lefties (13 points higher) and the five-point differential between hard-hit rate, wRC+ and pull percentage favoring the Pirates against lefties.
Of the above list, Kershaw and Bumgarner are the only two lefties the Pirates could face in the wild card game. With the Giants and Dodgers in the same division (NL West), that leaves only one of them as a possibility to face the Pirates.
The Pirates have faced both this season and, in fact, defeated both — in his debut, rookie Chad Kuhl beat Kershaw on Sunday Night Baseball, while Jeff Locke (!!) out-pitched Bumgarner when the Pirates defeated the Giants, 1-0, on June 20.
One thing teams will try to get the Pirates to do is chase the ball outside of the zone. With a 27.8 O-Swing%, the Pirates rank 23rd in baseball in chasing balls outside the zone. It’s an area where Syndergaard (No. 2 in baseball), Kershaw (No. 7), Scherzer (No. 11) and Fernandez (No. 21) thrive, while the other pitchers are all outside the top-30 with a sub-30% O-Swing%.
You down with BVP?
Well, I’m not. Batter vs. Pitcher (BVP) is what a lot of people turn to when looking at matchup against a pitcher and hitters. The fact is that the sample size is usually far too small to really hold any weight. I like to have at least a 100-plate-appearance sample. Even then, has the pitcher changed over time? What’s the difference in velocity? Has the pitcher maintained performance throughout his career or has he taken a Tim Lincecum or Francisco Liriano route?
Still, to please the BVP advocates, let’s see how the Pirates have done against the above pitchers in the regular season:
- Noah Syndergaard – .254/.284/.394, 0 HR 0 3B, 10 2B, 3BB, 17 K, 71 AB
- Max Scherzer – .139/.189/.270, 4 HR, 0 3B, 3 2B, 6 BB, 45 K, 115 AB
- Jose Fernandez – .163/.234/.163, 0 HR, 0 3B, 0 2B, 4 BB, 16 K, 43 AB
- Clayton Kershaw – .308/.363/.429, 3 HR, 0 3B, 2 2B, 11 BB, 27 K, 133 AB
- Madison Bumgarner – .286/.337/.405, 3 HR, 0 3B, 1 2B, 6 BB, 20 K, 84 AB
- Jake Arrieta – .198/.258/.247, 0 HR, 0 3B, 0 2B, 12 BB, 51 K, 182 AB
- Adam Wainwright – .303/.348/.497, 4 HR, 3 3B, 10 2B, 9 BB, 25 K, 145 AB
All are small sample sizes, but two of the best posted numbers are against Bumgarner and Kershaw — the lefties. Wainwright, in the biggest sample, has been victimized by the Pirates in the past, too.
Type of pitcher
According to the pitch value calculator on FanGraphs, the Pirates are most successful against fastball pitchers, which makes sense because it’s the pitch they see most often. The only other two positive outcomes are against changeups and splitters.
Because none of the aforementioned pitchers showcases a splitter, let’s focus on the fastballs and changeups.
Combined fastball/changeup usage:
- Syndergaard: 69.5 percent
- Scherzer: 68.3 percent
- Arrieta: 67.7 percent
- Fernandez: 67.5 percent
- Bumgarner: 53.7 percent
- Kershaw: 50.8 percent
- Wainwright: 42.9 percent
(Kershaw came in lower on the list as he throws his change less than 1 percent of the time.)
Verdict?
Putting aside playoff yips, I wouldn’t want to face the best pitcher in baseball, so Kershaw is automatically out.
The best matchup for the Pirates is Wainwright, given his FIP, xFIP, WHIP and ability to give up hard hit balls that the Pirates — who are pull- and up-the-middle hitters — can benefit from. However, his curve and cutter could cause problems for the Pirates, as they grade out in the negatives with both pitchers.
Teams are pulling the ball against Bumgarner 42.9 percent of the time, putting him in the bottom-20 in the league among qualified pitchers. He’s also been getting lucky, stranding an absurdly high number of runners — 85.3 percent — which is second in all of baseball. While Bumgarner can present problems with his slider (his second-most used pitcher that the Pirates are a -33.5 against) he doesn’t live and die by getting hitters to chase outside of the zone and still goes to his fastball 51 percent of the time.
Look, regardless of who the Pirates are facing, I’d more than likely put my money on the opposition. Wainwright would give the Pirates the best chance to win, even with his off-speed stuff because he’s a lesser talent than the other pitchers in the discussion. With him aside, I’d want to face Bumgarner as the lesser of the two left-handed evils and cross my fingers.
Image credit: USATSI
