The Pittsburgh Pirates have assembled its starting pitching rotation well ahead of Sunday’s 3 p.m. deadline to finalize a 25-man roster.
Last season, the Pirates ranked eighth in all of Major League Baseball and fifth in the National League with a 3.47 ERA and ranked fourth with a 3.05 ERA in the second half of the season. Pirates starters combined for a 3.60 ERA, seven shutouts, two complete games, a .249 batting average against and 798 strikeouts in 971 innings of work.
Though the Pirates starters allowed 85 homers last season, none of last year’s starters even ranked in the top 65 in homers allowed. A.J. Burnett who allowed 20 last season was 42nd among starting pitchers in the statistic.
The pitching staff has had its struggles in recent years when it comes to staying healthy, however as you will read below, there are plenty of options to choose from.
Francisco Liriano will be the ace of staff and gets the nod for the second consecutive Opening Day.
Liriano’s 16-8 mark from 2013 saw regression in 2014. His WAR of 3.0 in 2013 was cut in half, his win-loss record dropped to 7-10, his walks were up by 18 in 1.1 more innings pitched and he allowed 14 more runs. Additionally Hurdle had less of a leash on Liriano who threw 93.6 pitches per game – 2.4 fewer than 2013.
Many of these numbers are based on Liriano’s first half struggles as he posted 4.82, 5.34 and 4.50 ERAs in the first three months and 1.96, 3.75 and 1.16 to close the regular season. In September, Liriano went 4-0 in five total starts.
During Spring Training Liriano posted a 0.75 ERA and struck out 14 batters in 12 innings. Heading into Wednesday’s game against the Orioles, Liriano had a .172 batting average against. In 2014, that mark was .218.
Liriano’s slider is his most devastating pitch and he threw it 31.67 percent of the time last season with an average velocity of 86.16. It is his out pitch against left-handed hitters as with two strikes in a count he uses it 80 percent of the time. When Liriano uses his slider, it is swung on and missed 44.2 percent of the time. He has a similar swing rate with his change up with batters missing it 44.63 percent of the time.
Liriano loves to work inside to left-handed batters and paints the outside corner against right-handed hitters and with his swing and miss rate at 14 percent on his fastball and 11 percent on his sinker, his off-speed pitches will continue to be key.
Gerrit Cole had a trying 2014 season, but pitching coach Ray Searage told fans at PirateFest in December that he came out of it a better pitcher. Searage compared Cole to Washington Nationals pitcher Stephen Strasburg in that both tried to throw as hard as possible and when Cole spent time on the disabled list because of a fatigued right shoulder and a latissimus dorsi muscle injury in his back. It was this time that Searage said Cole became a pitcher.
If you look at Cole’s pitching charts from Opening Day 2013 through the end of the season, it shows he used his fastball 53.79 percent of the time with an average velocity of 96.65. The sinker was thrown 12.86 of the time at 96.24 miles per hour. From the time Cole came back [August 20] until the end of the season, Cole’s fastball usage was down to 34.85 percent of the time with the average velocity taking a slight dip to 96.43. The sinker usage made a significant increase to 30.8 percent of the time with a slightly increased velocity. Cole’s slider usage also increased by three percent. It is clear that Cole is trusting more of his pitches and is following Searage’s order to save his near triple-digit speed for limited situations.
This was a key towards Cole’s development in an 11-5 season. Cole’s months of May and June consisted of ERA’s of 4.38 and 5.59. In his two starts during August Cole posted a 2.77 ERA and in September was 4-1 in six decisions and had a 3.66 ERA.
Cole did pitch 138 innings and saw his strikeouts increase to 138. He also had a WHIP of 1.21. Batters did have some success stealing off Cole going 21-26 on the base paths.
Because of Cole’s early season struggles, his average of pitches per inning increased by 1.2 to 15.9 and total pitches per start climbed by nine to 99.
Cole will be expected to continue this jump into his second full season as he makes the progression to what the Pirates hope is the clear ace of this staff.
A.J. Burnett spent a year closer to his family, but found that he was not happy. Burnett then called general manager Neal Huntington telling him he would come back for one more season and that price was not a factor.
To say Burnett missed being around this team and fans is an understatement based on his statements and apology to fans at PirateFest.
With the Pirates in 2013 his pitch breakdown was as follows: fastball 22.14 percent, sinker 36.51 percent, change up six percent and curve ball 35.25. Pitching with his sports hernia injury in Philadelphia, Burnett tried to end at-bats quicker as evidenced by a 44.64 sinker percentage and a decrease to 14.97 in his fastball. His sinker had a strikeout-walk ratio of 52:34 in 2013 but that fell to 50:47 last season.
Burnett’s curve is his strikeout pitch and the ratio of strikeouts-walks went from 134:7 in 2013 to 117:9 in 2014. Furthermore, Burnett threw 3,472 pitches last season – an increase of 451 from 2013 and his highest total since 2008 [3,650]. Burnett also had his fewest strikeouts per nine [8.0] since 2010 [6.99].
This spring Burnett had a 6.39 ERA and had 12 punch outs in 12.2 innings, while hitters are batting .191 against him.
Burnett and Hurdle have set aside any hard feelings towards Hurdle’s decision to pass over him in the deciding game in the NLDS, when the veteran’s turn had come up to pitch. Burnett is healthy once again and with Searage. Under Searage’s tutelage. Burnett won 26 games and threw 393.1 innings in two seasons. Burnett’s 16 wins in 2012 were a career high. He does not want to be anywhere else and he will step right back into a leadership role with this team.
Jeff Locke is the fourth Pirates starter. Manager Clint Hurdle chose him over Worley and called it the second hardest decision he’s made in his time with the team, just behind starting Cole over Burnett in the 2013 NLDS. The move made sense since Hurdle likes having left-handed pitching. Hurdle also views Burnett and Charlie Morton as similar pitchers and this creates separation.
Locke saw some regression from his 10-7 3.52 ERA season from 2013. Locke made nine fewer starts, allowed five more home runs, and his WAR fell from 1.1 to 0.3 Locke had 40 walks in his 131.1 innings of work while increasing his strikeout to walk ratio to 2.23. Locke also lowered his pitches per plate appearance to 3.58 – a .14 decrease from 2013, however his batting average against rose 15 points to .257.
His season started with one outing in May where he allowed six runs in 5.1 innings, good for a 10.13 ERA. Though Locke posted a 2.54 ERA in June, his best month was August where he posted a 4-0 record in five decisions while posting a 2.90 ERA.
Locke was 2-2 in Spring Training with a 6.59 ERA allowing 19 hits in 13.2 innings.
The Locke decision was not the most popular among the fans, however he knows what needs to be done in order to keep the spot.
Charlie Morton is an interesting case. The Pirates are expecting Morton to start the season in the rotation, however in the fifth spot the Pirates could skip a start of his as Morton looks to find more control over his pitches.
Morton had a Spring Training to forget posting a 6.46 ERA, allowing 19 hits in 15.1 innings and walking more batters [five] than those he struck out [three].
Morton posted a 6-12 record in 2014 with a 3.72 ERA and 0.4 WAR. Morton’s last game of the season was Sept. 16, a five inning shutout victory against the Boston Red Sox in which he needed 92 pitches. Morton then underwent hip surgery and said he had been pitching through a sports hernia since June 2.
Morton threw 2,504 pitches last season and 1,427 of them were sinkers. He registered a 42.33 percent swing rate on the pitch and his next most successful pitch, his curve came in with a 41.14 swing rate.
Health is an important factor for Morton as he had thrown over 150 innings in a season only one in the last three seasons, and that was when he fought through injury in 2014 to post 157.1.
Morton posted ERA’s of 2.41 in May, 3.66 in June and 3.89 in July however was 0-2 with a 6.60 ERA in August.
With each start, Morton received more reps and thus grew closer to return. Whether he is 100 percent ready for the season remains to be seen. With this in mind, it is possible the Pirates skip Morton’s first start of the season since there is an off day April 7. This could give Morton a chance to get closer to form whether it is in Pittsburgh or extended Spring Training in Bradenton. Doing this would make Morton’s first start be on April 15.
The Pirates do have additional depth when it comes to spots in the rotation. Other potential starting options include Worley, Clayton Richard, Nick Kingham, Casey Sadler, Chris Volstad and Jameson Taillon later in the season if he completely recovers from Tommy John Surgery. Stolmy Pimentel would also serve as an option if he wins a bullpen spot or makes it through waivers without being claimed. Radhames Liz would also serve as an emergency option, although the Pirates are trying to make him into a reliever that can eat innings but also pitch whenever asked. Liz is also out of options. Adrian Sampson also is a prospect with an outside chance of seeing time depending on health and performance.
