Rewind the calendar just a couple of weeks and the Pitt Panthers were in a pretty solid spot.
Despite not having a real good win on the season, Pitt sat 17-4 overall and more importantly 6-3 in a very tough ACC.
That left them in a solid spot for the NCAA Tournament as three weeks ago Jamie Dixon’s team was being viewed at best as a No. 5 seed.
My how times have changed in just a couple short weeks.
Pitt sits at 6-6 in the ACC and 17-7 overall and while that isn’t bad, they still don’t have a win this season against a ranked team and after a three-game slide that has seen them get crushed by Virginia, lose at the buzzer to Miami and get completely pasted by North Carolina, Dixon’s team suddenly finds itself playing for its tournament lives.
To say that the Panthers need a win would be the understatement of the decade.
The bad news is that Pitt is now firmly on the bubble of making the tournament.
Judging by outlets who are predicting the tournament, one (CBS) still views Pitt as a No. 8 seed right now which is generous. Pitt also checks in as a No. 9 by USA Today. ESPN has them as a No. 11 (Last four byes) and KenPom has them as a No. 12 in the play-in game.
While that isn’t the end all for the Panthers, it does demonstrate that the Panthers have a ton of work to do.
The good news is that Pitt still has six games remaining, so there is time.
The bad news is that only three of those games are at home. While Wake Forest seems like a winnable game, Pitt still has Louisville and Duke coming to the Petersen Events Center. More bad news for Pitt is that they have Syracuse, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech on the road. While the Panthers defeated all three teams at home, but Pitt is only 2-4 away from the Pete in conference play.
The Panthers rank N0. 41 RPI as of today and the 42nd ranked strength of schedule, which isn’t terrible, but without a signature win it places them squarely on the bubble.
Then you look at the fact that Pitt has only two wins (Syracuse and at Notre Dame) against the RPI Top 50 and only three other wins (Davidson, Georgia Tech and at Florida State) against the RPI Top 100. Add all of that up and the bottom line is Pitt has to start winning some games that matter.
Come March the selection committee is going to see: Detroit, Cornell, Kent State, Duquesne, Central Arkansas, Eastern Washington, Morehead State, Western Carolina and Maryland Eastern Shore.
That simply isn’t good enough and it is a big reason why Pitt is in the position they are now.
That doesn’t even begin to scratch the surface on the issues this team is having on the court, but even though it sounds like a broken record, Pitt’s schedule does them no favors.
Lengthy losing streaks are typically uncommon for this program, but the Panthers defense could always be counted on to pull them out of a funk.
Those days are gone, as this Pitt team is terrible defensively, which means the offense is going to have to be unleashed. And while the Panthers do have a ton of scoring talent, they have struggled there as well, scoring under 70 points in three consecutive contests.
There’s still time to turn things around for Pitt, but they better do so quickly.
A 3-3 finish to the regular season should get Pitt in as long as they beat Louisville and Duke and do not get bounced from the ACC Tournament in the first round. The same finish to the regular season without a big win against Louisville or Duke could result in Pitt having to win an ACC Tournament game or two to get in.
A 4-2 finish for the Panthers should all but punch their ticket to March madness.
Judging by the way they have been playing as of late that could be asking a lot though.
However desperate teams tend to play their best and Pitt better start acting like a desperate team beginning Tuesday night against Wake Forest.
If they don’t, you very well could kiss the NCAA Tournament goodbye.
Photo Credit: USA Today Sports
