Coming off their biggest win of the season, a 28-21 win over Notre Dame, things don’t get easier for the Pitt Panthers as the North Carolina Tar Heels pay their first visit to the city of Pittsburgh since 2000.
It’s a big ACC game for both teams as the Panthers can earn their sixth victory of the season and bowl eligibility by defeating the resurgent Tar Heels.
The Tar Heels on the other hand have bounced back from a 1-5 start with three consecutive victories, including a 45-14 thumping of Virginia last week.
This will be a tough test for both teams.
Who has the advantage?
Let’s take a look.
When: Saturday, November 16
Where: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA.
Time: 12:30 pm. EST
Watch: ACC Network (WTAE-TV, Channel 4, in Pittsburgh)
Spread: Pick
Series History:
Series Began: 1974
Series Overall: UNC leads 4-3
At Pittsburgh: Pitt leads 2-1
At UNC: UNC leads 3-0
At Neutral Sites: Pitt leads 1-0
Last Meeting: Dec. 26, 2009 (Meineke Bowl: Pitt 19, UNC 17)
Last Meeting at Pitt: Nov. 4, 2000 (UNC 20, Pitt 17)
Current Series Streak: Pitt has won one (2009)
Longest Pitt Series Win Streak: 1 game (three times)
Longest UNC Series Win Streak: 2 games (1998; 2000)
Largest Pitt Victory Margin: 4 points (20-16, 1978)
Largest UNC Victory Margin: 19 points (29-10, 1998)
Keys for Pitt:
1. Big Game from Defensive Line: In Aaron Donald and Tyrone Ezell, Pitt has a potentially destructive interior line. The All-America candidate Donald leads the nation in tackles for loss (2.2 per game), ranks seventh in sacks (1.0 per game) and is 14th in forced fumbles (0.3 per game).Donald is one of the nation’s best defensive tackles and is posting gaudy numbers.
Donald and Ezell could spell trouble for a Tar Heel offensive line that has struggled for most of the season. Center Russell Bodine has been struggling, Left Guard Caleb Peterson is also questionable for the game, meaning true freshman Lucas Crowley could see extended time at center, with Bodine shifted to guard.
With the talent the Panthers have up front, it will be big for them to take advantage of a North Carolina offensive line that isn’t the greatest.
2. Run the football: With the way UNC’s secondary is playing, the Panthers need to take advantage of the Tar Heels’ poor rushing defense to put points on the board. Unfortunately for Pitt, they’re about as bad at running the ball as UNC.
Pitt ranks No. 12 in the ACC at 121.3 rushing yards per game and hasn’t found a consistent running back, rotating Isaac Bennett and James Conner. The Tar Heels have allowed a 100-yard rusher in eight of nine games this season. For the Panthers to become bowl eligible, they need to get it done on the ground.
3. Big Plays from the Defense: The Panthers defense finally broke through in the win last week over the Irish. They forced three turnovers and now find themselves also a win away from a second-straight bowl berth under Paul Chryst if they can fend off UNC at Heinz Field.
To do so they could use some more big plays from Ray Vinopal and company. Vinopal forced a fumble and picked off Tommy Rees twice to secure the Panther victory. He has three interceptions and five pass breakups on the year and could use another big effort on Saturday.
Keys for North Carolina
1. Take Away the Pass: North Carolina’s pass defense has all of a sudden become one of the Tar Heels’ major strengths. In the past four games, UNC has allowed just one passing touchdown and has intercepted eight passes. A lot of their success in the secondary starts up front though, where defensive end Kareem Martin and UNC’s rotation of defensive linemen have been hounding opposing quarterbacks.
2. More Marquise Williams: He is the North Carolina offense, and he did not disappoint last week in throwing, rushing and catching touchdowns for a win over Virginia and is a big reason why the Tar Heels are riding a three-game win streak. Williams is athletic and has a live arm and has good weapons around him. He is dangerous and if he gets going early, it could be a big day for the Tar Heels.
3. Get off to a quick start: The Panthers are 4-1 at Heinz Field this season, with their only loss coming at the hands of Florida State. I don’t anticipate a loud or even big crowd, but the Tar Heels can’t dig them themselves an early hole on the road or they will be in trouble. It’s a matter of Williams making big plays early and riding their defense the rest of the way.
Prediction: The playmaking ability of Williams should scare Pitt, as should the way the Tar Heels have been playing defensively. However this one is at Heinz Field and I like Pitt to do just enough at home to come out with a win. Pitt 27, North Carolina 24
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