The Pitt Panthers, fresh off its 42-25 road victory over Florida International, look to start the season 4-0 for the first time since 2000, when it hosts the Iowa Hawkeyes (2-1) at Heinz Field. The last time these two teams met was in 2011 at Kinnick Stadium, where the Hawkeyes were able to overcome a 21-point, second-half deficit to win 31-27.
The Hawkeyes are coming off an emotional home loss to in-state rival, Iowa State, so it will be interesting to see how the Hawkeyes respond traveling to Pittsburgh for their first road tilt of the season. Both of Iowa’s wins came against weaker competition, as the Hawkeyes were able to handle Northern Iowa and Ball State before their loss to the Cyclones.
Iowa looks for a quality win before they begin its Big Ten season. Pitt on the other hand, is looking to build on the early season success that has some people believing it is on the precipace of a Top-25 ranking.
Lets take a look at some specifics.
When: Saturday, September 20th
Where: Heinz Field
Time: 12 p.m.
Watch: ESPNU
Spread: Pitt -4
Series History:
Series Began: 1931
Series Overall: Pitt leads 3-2
Last Meeting: Iowa defeated Pitt 31-27 at Kinnick Stadium in 2011
Keys for Pitt (3-0, 1-0 ACC):
1. Who is going to step up besides James Conner?
James Conner has been one of the top players in the NCAA through three weeks. The bruising sophomore running back has rushed for nearly 600 yards and has eight touchdowns, and beyond two fumbles last week against FIU, he’s been nearly flawless. Conner’s efforts, along with a vastly improved offensive line, have helped make the Panthers the one of the top rushing teams in the NCAA (4th overall in net rushing). Additionally, the Panthers have averaged nearly 45 points per game this season, good enough for 15th in the NCAA.
However, the Iowa rush defense has been among the very best in the country, ranking in the top 10. Though the Hawkeyes have yet to face a rushing attack close to the caliber of Pitt, one would have to believe that they will do everything possible to stop Conner from having a big game. Who is going to step up? The obvious choice is fellow sophomore Tyler Boyd who leads the Panthers in catches (11) and receiving TD’s (4), but that means quarterback Chad Voytik has to get going in the passing game. This will be a key factor for the Panthers; if the Hawkeyes force the Panthers to throw, can Voytik get the job done?
2. Win the kicking game:
If there is one area of the game where Pitt has a clear advantage it is at kicker. This might not seem to be a major deal on the surface, but in a game that could very likely be close and low scoring, having a kicker the quality of Chris Blewitt might be huge. Blewitt has made all four of his attempts to this point, with his longest being from 49 yards. Due to the fact that the Panthers have been scoring a ton of touchdowns, Blewitt has not been busy. That could definitely change Saturday, and Blewitt could be a difference maker.
That’s because the Hawkeyes placekicking situation has definitely been in flux to this point. Junior Marshall Koehn has already missed three of six field goal attempts, and his inability to be consistent at shorter ranges has forced Hawkeyes coach Kirk Ferentz to use Mick Ellis on extra points. Add the very real fact that Heinz Field can be extremely rough for kickers, especially in the open end of the stadium, and a close game could be tipped in the Panthers favor because of a kicking edge.
3. Limit mistakes in the secondary:
With the loss of Titus Howard (suspension) and Trenton Coles (transfer) the depth at cornerback has been tested. Lafayette Pitts and Reggie Mitchell have done well for the most part thus far, but FIU was able to expose them on multiple passing plays, including a 58-yard TD pass where a coverage mixup led to the score. At safety Ray Vinopal and Terrish Webb have been effective, and should help contribute in pass coverage.
Iowa is unlikely to strike fear in their opponents with their passing attack, but starter Jake Rudock has completed nearly 70 percent of his passes and has averaged 239 yards per game through three contests. I fully expect the Hawkeyes to attempt to make plays in the passing game, as their running game as been abysmal and very likely could once again struggle against the Panthers. If the Pitt secondary has a solid day, I like the chances of Pitt getting a victory.
Keys for Iowa (2-1, 0-0 Big Ten):
1. Stop James Conner:
As Delaware, Boston College and FIU can attest, this is easier said than done. Yes, noted above, the Hawkeyes have been excellent against the run, but this is not Northern Iowa. The Pitt offensive line has quickly become an outstanding unit under the tutelage of Jim Hueber and this has allowed Conner to dominate in historic fashion early in the 2014 season. If Iowa has any chance of winning Saturday, they will need to load the box and stop Conner. This will mean forcing Chad Voytik to make plays with his arm, something he has yet to prove he can do consistently.
Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz is well aware of how Paul Chryst embraces the running attack from their battles when Chryst was at Wisconsin. Though Ferentz has been taking heat in recent years from the Iowa fan base, make no mistake, Ferentz is a top flight coach, so expect his team to be prepared to stop the Pitt rushing attack. If the Hawkeyes can limit the damage done by Conner and the Pitt rushing attack, this game could be close.
2. Can the Hawkeyes bounce back after an emotional loss to rival Iowa State?
Simply put, another key to this game will be can Iowa regroup after a gut wrenching home loss to hated in-state rival Iowa State? Ferentz has been a master of getting his players to play hard week in, week out, but this Iowa team looks limited in many areas, and if they come out flat, the Panthers could run away with this one.
This is the first road test for the Hawkeyes, and with a noon start, it will be interesting to see how they respond early. My guess is Iowa will be ready to go, and will come out swinging after such a disappointing loss last Saturday. Look for the defense to carry the load and try to be opportunistic in the hopes that they can win a low scoring game.
3. Win the turnover battle:
How does a road underdog who has not looked all that impressive through the first three games get an upset? Win the turnover battle. Always the great equalizer in football, the Hawkeyes could help their cause by forcing some turnovers. We know that Conner has had a propensity for putting the ball on the ground, and he had two fumbles just last week. If the Hawkeyes can force Pitt into some mistakes, the game could get tight late.
Prediction:
On paper, it’s hard not to give the Panthers a definitive advantage. However, as Pitt fans will tell you, these tend to be the games where they inexplicably falter. Iowa is going to battle hard to get a win, and if the Panthers are not ready to go, they could absolutely lose this one. In the end, this game is going to be close, but I expect the Panthers to come away with their fourth consecutive victory. Pitt 20, Iowa 15
