It’s not often that a team finds itself with a hefty ‘to-do list’ after a 98-win season.
But as the 2015 MLB Winter Meetings commence, a mandate to back fill several key positions is exactly what the Pittsburgh Pirates find themselves with.
The annual summit of Major League Baseball general managers, player agents and other executives is often a whirlwind of activity. Just one look at a recap from last year’s event can be dizzying. Last year, the Pirates did not mimic the overzealous natures of teams like the San Diego Padres and Chicago White Sox, both of whom made a flurry of moves but did not enjoy the intended benefits.
Instead, Neal Huntington and his lieutenants acquired a bullpen arm in Antonio Bastardo before turning their attention back in-house by working to bring Francisco Liriano back to the fold.
This year’s trip will undoubtedly be busier for Huntington. Here now is a Winter Meetings preview with a focus on the starting pitching market.
Although first base is fresh in the minds of many, the primary need for the Pirates this offseason remains a starter. The team did not deem the services of J.A. Happ to be worth a serious attempt to keep him, creating a large gap between a solid front of the rotation and a questionable back end. Aside from plugging holes, many also wonder if an upgrade over Jeff Locke and Charlie Morton can be had.
Luckily for the Pirates, this year’s crop of starters is plentiful.
David Price has set the tone by way of his record-setting $217 million-dollar deal. Jordan Zimmermann is also off of the market, leaving Johnny Cueto as the lone top-tier target still unsigned. The Pirates were never going to entertain a single thought of entering negotiations with a pitcher of that magnitude, but their deals are already being felt at the next tier of talent. Jeff Samardzjia has reportedly been offered a $100 million deal, which shows the effect of these larger contracts in practice. Pittsburgh would do well to target those starters who fit the mold of what the team asks – good ground ball rates brought on by the type of pitches they carry in their holster.
Justin Masterson is a name being thrown about recently, with Travis Sawhick of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reporting the club has shown interest in the seven-year veteran. Coming off of a three-year stretch with a 5.50 ERA or greater, Masterson figures to be had cheaply. His lowered price tag and bloated ERA should not cloud the fact that he profiles as a typical Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher. Masterson relied on his sinking fastball in 2015, and the result of the pitch was a 65.88 percent ground ball rate. A far less attractive number would be 4.1, which would be Masterson’s BB/9 (walks per nine innings) rating for last year. Masterson does show some strikeout ability at 7.4 K/9.
What Ray Searage, along with the team’s coaching and scouting staffs, do better than anyone is quickly identify what doesn’t work for a pitcher. Rather than trying to refine a sub-par pitch, the team will eventually ask a pitcher to sometimes drop it from their arsenal completely. This has been seen most recently with Liriano – previously reliant on a four seam fastball before realizing his slider’s wipeout potential – and Happ, who pared down the usage of his curveball and changeup while focusing on location with his four-seamer.
In Masterson, they may find a student who’s already ahead of the curve.
Here are some more potential pitcher targets, in quick-hit fashion:
Wei-Yen Chen is a pitcher who is not known to many Pirates fans, but perhaps he should be. The 30 year old Taiwanese product comes off of a four-year stint with the Orioles that saw him put up a 3.72 career ERA, with a 3.34 figure last year. Chen was a 2.8 WAR player in 2015, and might translate well to the National League. His O-Swing percent (percentage of times he gets a better to offer at a pitch outside of the zone) came in at 32.4 percent clip, above the league average of 30 percent.
Trevor Cahill is a journeyman who has shown an active interest in the Pirates, as reported by multiple pundits. Cahill scuffled between Atlanta and Chicago last year but sports a staggering 63.1 percent groundball rate from 2015 (55 percent for his career). If he doesn’t keep it on the carpet, it stays in the park regardless, as his 3.57 GB/FB (Groundball-to-flyball) ratio suggests.
Mike Leake still elicits strong reaction from Pirates fans from his time as a Cincinnati Red, but the time may be right to welcome him into the fold. Leake is coming off of two straight injury-shortened seasons and teams may have a window to bid low for his services. It likely won’t be too large of a window, as Leake is still just 28 years old an carries a career 3.88 ERA.
It’s interesting to note that the team can go with both a short-term and long-term approach in locking up a starter. It’s no secret that Tyler Glasnow will likely make his MLB debut in some capacity in 2016, so the Pirates may view any potential acquisition as simply a bridge to Glasnow, or perhaps a long-term replacement for Locke and/or Morton.
The Pittsburgh Pirates must answer that philosophical question first before they can truly lock onto a target.
With the market being saturated with affordable talent, I would be surprised if the Pirates left the winter meetings without at least finding themselves in serious talks with one or more viable starting pitchers.
