On Wednesday, Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reported that Francisco Cervelli is open to an extension with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Cervelli, however, noted the club has not approached him about an extension.
The projected contract numbers for the Pirates’ catcher is in the neighborhood of a three-year, $39 million deal, with his $13 million yearly salary slightly less than what former Pirates catcher Russell Martin signed with the Toronto Blue Jays.
How Cervelli’s contract situation works out will be a story to follow in the lead-up to the Pirates start of Spring Training, but is it worth it for the Pirates to bring the 29-year-old back?
Pros
In 2015, Cervelli had a career year for the Pirates. He hit .295, with seven home runs and 43 RBI, many of which were game-tying or go-ahead ones. Behind the plate, Cervelli ranked as the best pitch framer in the majors last season. But above all, he remained healthy, avoiding the disabled list all season.
Based on his 2015 season, it would make sense to extend Cervelli because it would give the Pirates stability at catcher for a few more years. A three-year extension for Cervelli, coupled with Chris Stewart’s two-year extension, would allow the club to take their time with top catching prospect Reese McGuire, and possibly deal fellow prospect Elias Diaz.
While the Pirates do have two of MLB.com’s top 10 catching prospects, it is worth remembering that prospects are no guarantee to pan out. Cervelli could walk after 2016 and Diaz and/or McGuire could completely flame out, leaving the Pirates without a capable catcher.
Another incentive for the Pirates to sign Cervelli before the season starts is his price. If Cervelli has another season like the one he had in 2015, he may demand more money than $39 million over three years, and at that point, the Pirates would be very unlikely to retain him.
If Cervelli is to stay, he would join a Pirates’ core of Andrew McCutchen, Gerrit Cole, Josh Harrison, Jung Ho Kang, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco who are all under team control thru 2018.
Cons
Cervelli’s career season in 2015 could end up being just that, a season where everything went right that he may not replicate.
The biggest issue for him going forward is his injury history. From 2011-2014, Cervelli missed 199 games due to injury, and has yet to show he can constantly stay healthy over the course of multiple seasons. It is always a risk to sign a player to a long-term deal with an injury history as extensive as Cervelli’s, and with Diaz and McGuire in the pipeline it may not make sense to commit to him over the next three or four seasons if he cannot stay on the field.
If Cervelli were to stay healthy, he would be a bargain at a three-year, $39 million deal. But that may be too big of an if to gamble on.
The Pirates, as previously stated, have two of the top catching prospects in baseball. If they feel Diaz and then McGuire can be quality starters, then there is little reason to spend money on Cervelli that could be spent elsewhere, such as an extension for Polanco.
Another factor is the possibility of giving Cervelli a one-year qualifying offer after the 2016 season. Cervelli would likely opt for a long-term deal elsewhere, and the Pirates would receive a first-round pick in the 2017 draft in return.
Considering the Pirates’ history of being hesitant with giving long-term contracts to players into their 30s, 2016 may be Cervelli’s last season in Pittsburgh. However, they still have options with him. If they feel he can stay healthy over the life of his contract, it may be worth keeping him long term.
