The buzz around Pittsburgh for the Pirates to call up top pitching prospect Tyler Glasnow is growing.
And it is hard to blame those that want to see him wearing black and gold before year’s end.
The team’s once strong rotation is weakening: Francisco Liriano had to be checked by the trainer in the midst of a rough outing his last time out, AJ Burnett is injured, Jeff Locke and Charlie Morton have had as many great moments as face palm-worthy ones and J.A. Happ does not inspire confidence that he is a quality option. It will be very difficult for the Pirates to catch the Cardinals with their current rotation, and they may even have trouble holding back the Cubs for the top Wild Card spot.
Is Glasnow the best option to improve a stagnating Pirates rotation? Is he even an improvement at all?
The case for calling up Glasnow is clear: he may have the highest ceiling out of any pitcher in the Pirates’ system – maybe even higher than Gerrit Cole’s.
Glasnow has an electrifying fastball that can top 100 MPH, and pairs it with a big breaking curveball. He has made baffling hitters look easy over his minor league career, with an impressive 12 strikeouts per-nine-innings ratio, and a .169 batting average against him.
The biggest concern about Glasnow coming into the year was his high walk rate, but his 3.2 BB/9 rate this year is a marked improvement over his career 4.2 one.
Limiting his innings would also not be too much of a concern, as an ankle injury that kept him out for about a month earlier in the year has limited him to 84.1 innings, well below his career high of 124.1.
Glasnow would give the Pirates a possible shot in the arm like the ones David Price and Michael Wacha gave their teams in similar situations.
Price pitched out of the bullpen for the Tampa Bay Rays in their 2008 World Series run, and Pirate fans are all too familiar with the performance Wacha had in the St. Louis Cardinals’s rotation in 2013. Both shot through the minors and received a late call-up to the Majors in their first year of pro ball.
But the situation with Glasnow is not the same as Wacha or Price. Both were drafted after three years of college ball and were more developed than Glasnow – who was drafted out of high school – is right now.
His situation is not even the same as Gregory Polanco or Cole’s in recent years. With them, neither had a ton of AAA experience but were polished enough that they did not really need it, and instead much of the reason for keeping them down was delaying their arbitration clock.
With Glasnow, he really isn’t ready because of his changeup development.
It still looks flat, and hitters that sit on his fastball have had success against the changeup because they don’t appear fooled by the change in speed. He does not appear to trust the pitch; instead he seems to throw it when he is told to, not by choice. In his second and start for AAA Indianapolis, Glasnow threw the changeup once – and he ended up plunking the batter with it.
That pitch was a microcosm of a game where he struggled with his control. In 4.2 innings, Glasnow threw 94 pitches – 46 for strikes – and walked six. The previous game, Glasnow gave up a career-high nine hits in 5.1 innings. His most recent start on Tuesday was his best in AAA, where he had a rough start but retired the last eight of the last nine hitters he faced through five innings.
If he cannot trust his changeup, why would batters respect him throwing to them? Behind every dazzling fastball is a changeup that works off of it to keep hitters honest. It is what separates Aroldis Chapman from Arquimedes Caminero. Chapman’s changeup keeps hitters on their toes when he mixes it with his blistering fastball, while opposing hitters that think fastball out of Caminero’s delivery are likely to get one thrown to them and can adjust for its speed.
Not to mention, if Glasnow cannot trust his changeup now, imagine how much more difficult it would be for him to ever trust it if the pitch gets rocked in the Majors.
It is highly unlikely that he joins the rotation until the changeup becomes more polished, though it is possible he could receive a call-up to work on the pitch with pitching coach Ray Searage out of the bullpen. But even then, he would not help the rotation much sitting in the pen.
Sure, the upside to adding Glasnow for the stretch run is sky-high, but it could be a detriment to both his growth and the Pirates pitching this season. So at this point, if Glasnow is called would he be enough of an improvement to warrant the risk?
As a Magic 8 Ball would say, ask again later, because he still needs a few more AAA starts for that question to be answered.
