Sometimes breaking tradition is good. Sometimes plans need to be changed.
Maybe it is time for the Pittsburgh Pirates to alter their course.
General manager Neal Huntington’s blueprint to success has been clear since he was hired in 2008: Flood the system with prospects.
Overspend in the draft and spend money on international players. Trade major league players when their value is high to get prospects in return and limit money on free agents and trade acquisitions to players they feel can they can fix and get good value for. Those types of moves brought the Pirates from the depths of a 20-year losing streak. But maybe now it is time to break from this way of operating – or at least tinker with it.
Sure, it is a mold the Tampa Bay Rays have employed since their run to the World Series in 2008. And it has given the Rays success. They had made the playoffs three times since 2008, though missed them the last two seasons. The Pirates, too, have had success off of this model, having made the playoffs three seasons in a row.
But just making the playoffs is not good enough for the Pirates anymore. Now it is about a deep October run, and playing in the World Series. Sharing a division with the ever-consistent St. Louis Cardinals and up-and-coming Chicago Cubs will make that road to the World Series very difficult in 2016.
Maybe now it is time to take that leap and go for it all.
After all, it did work for the Kansas City Royals in 2015. Their general manager, Dayton Moore, took a huge risk in giving up heavy returns to rent pitcher Johnny Cueto and infielder Ben Zobrist, both impending free agents unlikely to return. That risk paid off for Moore and the Royals, but it doesn’t always.
It didn’t for the Toronto Blue Jays, who completely ran out of gas in the American League Championship Series. Now, they stand to lose pitcher David Price, who had a dismal post-season, after giving up prized pitching prospect Daniel Norris for him.
Many of last off-season’s “winners” of free agency didn’t even qualify for the post-season. The San Diego Padres acquired outfielders Wil Myers, Justin Upton and Matt Kemp, closer Craig Kimbrel and starter James Shields; all were on the trading block come July after they were expected to give the Padres a quick fix from under-.500 team to playoff contender.
The Washington Nationals broke the bank on pitcher Max Scherzer. He had a good season, but the Nationals were a complete flop after being considered a World Series favorite.
So what does all of this mean?
It means that a big move or two does not completely fix a team. If a team needs a couple big deals to be fixed, chances are that team was not very good anyway.
The Kansas City Royals had the best record in the American League when they acquired Cueto and Zobrist. Those two didn’t turn them into a World Series contender; they reinforced their status as one. Both played big roles in their title run, but the Royals had the pieces to carry them when one or the other struggled.
The Blue Jays did not have the supporting cast to make up for Price and Troy Tulowitzki, both of whom they paid heavy prices for at the trade deadline, when they struggled in the post-season and got throttled by the Royals. Yoenis Cespedes sparked one of baseball’s worst offenses when he arrived with the New York Mets, but his teammates had trouble picking up the slack when he and Daniel Murphy’s bats cooled off in the World Series.
San Diego just simply did not have a good roster before their off-season spending spree, and the Nationals have hadn’t been able to live up to expectations for years.
The Pirates are not the Blue Jays or Mets. They are coming off of a 98-win season, and would have won any other division besides the National League Central, where they reside. They have one of the most talented core of players in baseball, a cohesive clubhouse and one of baseball’s best farm systems.
Their time to win is now.
Pay Mark Melancon his $10 million; if he walks after next season for nothing then so be it. A great bullpen has been a staple of this team’s success, and he has been the linchpin of the “Shark Tank.” If Neil Walker is not retained, find a viable replacement at second base until Jung Ho Kang is healthy and Josh Harrison can slide to the position, or one that allows Harrison to be a super utility player when Kang is back.
The Pirates do not need to totally change their method of doing business. Acquiring struggling pitchers and turning them around has been a well they should go back to considering how well it has worked for them. A guy like Jeff Samardzija, who the team has shown interest in for years, would be an ideal addition.
But also make a serious effort to retain pitching coach Ray Searage’s latest miracle, J.A. Happ. Much of the team’s current pitching depth for 2016 was injured in 2015, and starters Charlie Morton and Jeff Locke just simply did not cut it in the rotation. Happ’s advanced numbers show he was for real, and they would not need to break the bank for him.
Protect pitcher Tyler Glasnow. He is a special talent with a ceiling that may be higher than Pirates’ ace Gerrit Cole. If they really do not feel his changeup is ready for the majors after Spring Training then do not rush him.
Don’t be afraid to trade a different top prospect, though. The Pirates have one of baseball’s best systems, and losing one or two prospects, especially from their deep pool of outfielders and catchers, would not kill the future so long as they don’t go crazy trading them. They are good enough in the draft and international free agency to compensate losing a good prospect or two.
Kick the tires on first baseman Chris Davis in free agency, or make a real inquiry on the cost to sign Korean first baseman Byung Ho Park. First base needs addressed, especially with Pedro Alvarez unlikely to be back. Michael Morse is a good bench player and he could return to the pre-2014 Morse, or he could continue to be a below average starter. Top hitting prospect Josh Bell is still figuring out the defensive side of things at the position, and doesn’t figure to be in the majors until at least June.
Of course none of these possible off-season moves will guarantee the Pirates anything, and could come at a big monetary cost. But the funds are there to increase payroll, especially after they set a new club record in attendance. They can increase payroll while still being responsible with how much they spend.
They have a good enough base to keep things going if any of the players they end up landing struggle, but the Pirates still need reinforcements to cement themselves as a World Series contender.
It is time for them to alter that plan.
