The image I chose for this years Pirates Over/Under article doesn’t seem to fit the title, at least until you realize who is smiling back at you from that March 1978 Sports Illustrated cover. The handsome young man under that head of jet black hair is none other than the Commander of this Pirates Ship – Manager Clint Hurdle. The optimism that surrounded the 20-year-old Kansas City Royals rookie that spring was not unlike the unbridled enthusiasm that looms over the upcoming 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates season. Hurdle was brimming with talent, the ninth overall selection in the 1975 amateur draft and a collegiate superstar during his time atFerrisStateUniversity– the same Big Rapids,Michiganschool that produced the Penguins Chris Kunitz. As most hugely-hyped prospects tend to do, Hurdle never lived up to the grand expectations heaved upon him by the Royals, who at the time were a dominant American League franchise coming off of back-to-back A.L. West titles. After a few years inKansas City, Hurdle toiled on the benches of teams inCincinnati,New York, andSt. Louis. He found his true calling in the game of baseball in 1988, when he was hired as the manager of the St. Lucie Mets, the New York Mets Class-A affiliate. It is not unfair to say that Hurdle has been a much-more successful leader of players than as a player himself.
I make the comparison between Hurdle’s playing career and the 2013 Pirates because they are similar entities. The Pirates are still piling up losing seasons, despite the yearly hype machine thePittsburghmedia throws at 
readers. The team finally seems to be rounding the corner, with the past two seasons showing great promise before ending bitterly, sadly, and very quietly. This season, the machine is in full boar roar – many media outlets have claimed that this is the year the Pirates break the .500 barrier for the first time since 1992. National analysts are predicting that the Pirates could in fact contend for the National league Central title, a division that contains the powerful Cincinnati Reds and the solid St. Louis Cardinals, not to mention the chief nemesis of our heroes, those dastardly Milwaukee Brewers. Like 1978 Clint Hurdle, the 2013 Pirates come charging into the season as a house on fire. They are ready to show that they have arrived, ready to throw down on the best the National league has to offer, ready to pile up the fresh victims and drive a fresh stake through their hearts, a stake that is connected to a Jolly Roger. In terms of actual FAN hype, the 2013 Pirates probably have more in common with – say, 1993 Al Martin – than 1978 Hurdle. 1993 Martin was a player who everyone thought would become a star as he took over for the departed Barry Bonds in leftfield for the Buccos. The Pirates of 2013 are looking to replace the fading St. Louis Cardinals as the chief contenders to the Reds in their division. The Cardinals are looking old, looking injured, and looking like they are ready to have a down year. That opens the door for the Bucs, if they can hang tough for an entire 162-game schedule and hold the clubhouse together through the inevitable losing streaks that every team experiences. Keeping the morale up and not letting a losing streak turn into a losing season is the job of 2013 Hurdle, whose 1978 version may still be out there in another dimension, churning through an impressive spring training and knocking veteran 1B John Mayberry out of his starting gig at Royals Stadium.
By now, you have probably read enough 2013 Major League Baseball prediction articles that they are all starting to blend together. So with that in mind, I have prepared a unique prediction article for the Pittsburgh Pirates 2013 season that will both educate the masses and subconsciously fulfill the desires of the hardcore gambler inside all of us. This is the roulette wheel, the craps table, the seedy backroom video poker gambit of the baseball predictions world. We will break down all of the important issues facing your 2013 Battlin’ Buccos. The roster is set for Opening Day, so we can wax poetically on current events. Then, we can rev up the flux capacitor, jump into the DeLorean, and look into the very near future. Welcome to the 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Over/Under Edition of Snedden’s Take.
#1 Over/Under for the 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Total Wins – 81.5 WINS
This is the big one. Can the Pirates finally achieve an OVER .500 winning percentage over the course of a 162-game slate. I am predicting exactly 82 victories for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2013. I believe the combination of Andrew McCutchen becoming the best player in baseball, new hitting coach Jay Bell teaching Pedro Alvarez, Travis Snider, and Starling Marte how to be well-rounded major league hitters, and a pitching staff that will get a hot young arm injection sooner than later will all be enough to carry the Pirates into the promise land (well, their promise land at least – over .500). The entire Pirates “.500 season” routine has become a bit played out. It reminds me of “One for the Thumb”. When the Steelers won Super Bowl XL, finally ridding themselves of that horrific motto was one of the deepest silver linings. Pirates; 2013; 84 victories. Yes sir.
#2 Before/After for the arrival of Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon to Pittsburgh – June 1st
The Pirates 2013 season and in a nutshell – their immediate future – depends on the arrival of both top prospects Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon into their rotation slots, jobs they should both hold for the next ten years if the Pirates are smart enough to ensure it happens. While predicting prospect potential is a tedious and inexact science, everything from Bill James to the Farmers Almanac has foreseen that both Cole and Taillon are future all stars and future aces for the Pirates starting rotation. The key for both is how soon the penny-pinching Pirates allow these young gems to begin their major league careers. Both are just about ready, and Cole could probably step into a slot from Opening Day and achieve at least moderate success. As we all know, the Pirates have a tendency to allow their prospects to flounder in the minor leagues much longer than they should. Taillon was selected by the Pirates in the first round of the 2010 MLB Amateur Draft, chosen at No. 2 right after the Washington Nationals jumped on Bryce Harper. Six players chosen in the top 20 picks of that draft have already logged Major league playing time – Harper, Manny Machado, Drew Pomeranz, Matt Harvey, Yasmani Grandal and Chris Sale. Harper, Machado, andSaleare already looking like franchise-type players, andHarveywill be a major cog in the Mets starting rotation beginning this season. Gerrit Cole was the first player chosen overall in the 2011 Draft, ahead of Trevor Bauer and Dylan Bundy – two pitchers who have already made their major league debuts. That list will grow in 2013 when Danny Hultzen, Francisco Lindor, and hopefully Cole make their debuts.
The Pirates starting rotation consists of A.J. Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, and a slew of question marks. James McDonald could go either way – he could become the ace he showed flashes of being in 2012, or he could be a flop. Jeff Karstens has shown flashes of becoming a solid middle of the rotation pitcher, and newly-acquired Francisco Liriano is expected to inherit a starting slot when he is healthy. The Pirates will be sliding Jeff Locke and Jonathan Sanchez into the rotation to begin the season, but if all goes according to plan, both should be either pitching out of the bullpen, pitching at AAA-Indianapolis, or traded away within the first 90 days of the season. Barring an incredible breakout campaign by either, their spots should be taken by Cole and Taillon before the All Star Break. If the Pirates are back in contention similar to last summer, it will be imperative to break the two young studs in quickly to further enhance the club. Locke has the potential to be a nice slice of trade bait for the Pirates when they eventually begin searching for that one bat or bullpen arm at the trade deadline. Potentially, McDonald could also fetch a nice return if he mirrors his 2012 first half. A trade package of Locke/McDonald plus an out of options Jose Tabata could bring the Pirates back an impact bat. None of these factors, however, should delay the arrival of Taillon and Cole to the SteelCitythis summer. Over/Under becomes Before/After on this question, and I predict both will be called up and slotted into the rotation BEFORE June 1st. The Pirates will begin a stretch of 26 games in 30 days on June 1, with the majority coming againstCincinnati,Atlanta,San Francisco,Milwaukee, andLos Angeles. The month rounds out with a tough interleague slate featuring a road trip toAnaheim andSeattle. June will be the month that ultimately determines the Pirates 2013 fate, and hopefully Neal Huntington is smart enough to realize they need to face this challenge with the two best pitching prospects in the history of the Pittsburgh Pirates in the fold.
#3 Over/Under Total saves by closer Jason Grilli in 2013 – 40 saves
Jason Grilli takes over the ninth inning from the traded Joel Hanrahan in 2013 and all indications point to Grilli excelling at this stressful position. Manager Clint Hurdle leans on his bullpen as much as any manager in the game today, and you can be certain that Grilli will be on the mound in the ninth inning of every game in which the Pirates are leading by three or less runs – read: a save situation. If Grilli racks up over 40 saves in 2013, that would be a solid indicator of good times for the Bucs. With an arsenal of heavy smoke at his disposal, the late-blooming Grilli looks the part of a major league closer. He also has the disposition that clubs look for from their save specialists. Grilli is a fun guy off the mound, as evidenced by his Twitter and Facebook forays. When he is on the mound, Grilli is all business. I predict that the Pirates will continue to utilize their closer in over 60 games for the third-straight season, and Grilli will finish 2013 among the top closers in the game. I see him not only blowing by the 40 save plateau, I see him hitting 45 saves and being talked about in the same respect asAtlanta’s Craig Kimbrel and the Reds “Cuban Missile” Aroldis Chapman. Furthermore, I see Grilli saving at least 10 more games than the man he replaced, Joel Hanrahan, saves in Beantown for a transitioning Red Sox team.
#4 Over/Under Season Batting Average for 3B Pedro Alvarez – .250 BA
“El Toro” finally showed his power stroke in 2012, socking 30 homeruns in a season of very high highs and very low lows for the 26-year-old cornerstone. When Alvarez is hot, few players in baseball can match his ability to carry the team on his back for weeks at a time. The next obstacle in his way of reaching his maximum potential is consistency in making contact. In 2012, Alvarez sustained a BAbip (Batting Average on balls in play) of .308, which shows that when he makes contact he usually ends up getting a knock. Unfortunately, Alvarez has turned the strike out into an art form with the Pirates, a team that collectively strikes out FAR too often with runners in scoring position. Alvarez had a SO% (Strike-Out Percentage over all plate appearances) of 30.7 percent (180 K’s in 586 plate appearances). That is astounding for a player who drove in 85 runs. If he can cut down on his strikeouts by just 20%, and put the ball in play more often, all indications are that he could turn his .244 batting average into a .270 batting average. Doing so would logically increase his ability to create runs, taking him over the 100 RBI plateau. While Alvarez is a streaky player, his strike out rate has been extremely consistent (30.8 in 2010, 30.5 in 2011, and 30.7 in 2013). In order to improve, he will need to learn how to identify breaking pitches better and see when a pitcher is using the outside part of the plate exclusively (the “book” on Alvarez is to make him fish by throwing sliders on the outside black). I have re-watched over 600 Alvarez plate appearances this winter and charted that of the 260 strikeouts I saw, over 75 percent of them (200 K’s) were the result of Alvarez chasing at least one pitch that was well of the plate and down around his ankles. If he lays off those pitches and forces hurlers to challenge him inside, he will become an absolute FORCE. The key for Pedro is two little words: Jay Bell.
The Pirates new hitting coach was a disciplined hitter and while he did strike out a fair share, he rarely had a game where he struck out more than once. Bellwas a masterful hitter at making adjustments in-game and using video to his advantage. The new modern technology being used in the game allows hitters to study tape from the dugout if they like, and coaches like Bell,should greatly help Pedro Alvarez complete his stance as the premier power hitter on this emerging Pirates team. I predict that not only will Alvarez hit over .250 in 2013, he will maintain his power (30-35 homeruns), increase his RBI total (from 85 to 100), and turn his 180/57 K/BB Ratio into a much more manageable 144/75 number. The change will be gradual and Alvarez will struggle a bit early, but knowing he is past the point of being benched for slumping will enable his confidence to grow with each at-bat. Final tally on “El Toro” in 2013: .260/34/105, a Silver Slugger Award, and a few MVP votes.
#5 Over/Under Total Team Stolen Bases in 2013 – 108 Stolen Bases
This isn’t a team that is going to bludgeon their opponents on a nightly basis. In 2012, the Pirates combined for 448 extra-base hits (241 doubles, 37 triples, 170 homeruns). By comparison, division foes Milwaukee had 541,St. Louishad 486, and Cincinnati totaled 498. To compete with these teams, the Pirates will need to rely on their speed to offset the lack of power. A repeat of last seasons NL-worst 73 team swipes will not cut it if this club harbors any intention of competing with the stacked lineups in the NL Central. Luckily, the Pirates will add a major speed cog with the everyday addition of Starling Marte. The 24-year old new starting left fielder has the potential to rack up 30+ stolen bases by himself, as evidenced by his 12 SB in just 47 games in 2012. This should also be the season that Andrew McCutchen joins the 30/30 club, after seeing his running opportunities limited the past two summers. The Pirates admittedly did not take advantage of McCutchen’s ridiculous speed in 2012 (just 20 steals, despite a team-leading .400 OBP and 159 singles), and the green light will be granted much more frequently this season. If Marte and McCutchen both steal exactly 30 bases in 2013, the rest of the lineup will only need to account for 48 to reach the National League team-average of 108 team stolen bases – which should be a team goal. 2B Neil Walker and back-up OF Jose Tabata could both go double-digit steals, and UTIL Josh Harrison should accumulate enough at-bats to do the same. I am going to predict that the Pirates will reach the league-average 108 SB mark, and actually, exceed it. I predict a big-time speed show from Marte with over 30 steals, at least 6-7 triples, and plenty of those fun moments where he flies from first to third on a bloop single to right field. With a proven arm in Russell Martin behind the plate most nights, the running game will become a positive for the Bucs in 2013.
#6 Over/Under Total Pirates wins AFTER the All-Star Break – 33 wins
This is the big one, the number that will decide whether the 2013 version of the Pittsburgh Pirates will be the one to finally end this embarrassing and historically pathetic string of 21 losing seasons. The Bucs have shown that they can do it over the first half – two years straight they have been over .500 at the All-Star Break, including last season’s amazing 48-37 record (and 1st place hold on the N.L. Central). In 2013, the Pirates will have a much easier slate of games on tap after the break. The second half of 2013 will contain just 68 games, 26 of those being against the Chicago Cubs, Miami Marlins, Colorado Rockies, and San Diego Padres. The Pirates will also have plenty of divisional games to either fend off their foes or make up ground on the Reds and Cardinals. They will play 29 games against Cincinnati, St. Louis, and Milwaukee throughout July, August, and September. One more telling statistic is a big one as well – the Pirates have been historically bad in their interleague slate – and in 2013, they will play one series on the road in an American League stadium (September 9-11, @ Texas). Playing in Arlington in early September when the average temperature is around 100F, against a loaded team that has their sights set on a third World Series appearance in four years, will be a major late season challenge for the Bucs. Out of those 68 second-half games, 39 will be on the road, leaving just 29 at the friendly confines of PNC Park.
My prediction: The Pittsburgh Pirates play .500 ball after the All-Star break, and after a 50-44 first-half, the Bucs go 34-34 in the second half and finish their 2013 campaign with a 82-80 record, good for a 2nd place finish to tie St. Louis. The Pirates will not make the postseason, but they will take a major step in their return to the world of the baseball living. This will open up the franchise to make their first legitimate run at a division title in 2014.
The 2013 season will be one of massive highs and heartbreaking lows. This team will be streaky, and at time it will seem like they are ready to punch the clock and repeat their collapse of the 2011 and 2012. However, they have been there – done that. Clint Hurdle, Jay Bell, and the rest of the Pirates coaching staff have this team ready to play a full 162-game slate and finally break the historical losing streak.
