They are no doubt two teams with very different records and resumes in 2014, but the situations are very similar entering Week 15 for the Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5) and the Atlanta Falcons (5-8). Pittsburgh is currently atop the AFC Wild Card standings and just a half-game behind division-leading Cincinnati (8-4-1) after defeating the Bengals last week, while Atlanta is tied with the New Orleans Saints (5-8) in a poor, but tight NFC South. Pittsburgh still gets to host Cincinnati in the season finale and Atlanta will visit the Saints in Week 16, two crucial games still ahead on the league schedule, but they must first battle each other Sunday at the Georgia Dome.
Atlanta still somehow leads the race for the NFC South title, the #4 seed and a home playoff game, despite losing five straight early in the season to start at 2-6 at the midway point. Yet a 4-0 division record has them ahead of the Saints via tiebreaker and a half-game ahead of Carolina, who is now without QB Cam Newton after this week’s car accident. Things have strangely fallen into place for the Falcons despite losses to some bad teams including the Vikings, Giants and Bears.
Pittsburgh, of course, also knows what it is like to lose to underdogs. With division wins against each opponent (3-2 overall in the AFC North), as well as a good Indianapolis team, the Steelers have also lost to the likes of the Buccaneers, Jets and Saints. At 8-5 and with two home games remaining against a fellow Wild Card contender in the Kansas City Chiefs and the Bengals, a win in Atlanta will put the Steelers in excellent position to break a short two-year string of mediocrity and missing the playoffs. Pittsburgh last made the playoffs in 2011, losing to Tim Tebow and the Broncos in the first round. The team’s last AFC North title came in 2010, when they went 12-4 and lost Super Bowl XLV to Green Bay. Cincinnati and Baltimore have each won twice in the past five years, so Pittsburgh looks to regain control of what has been the NFL’s most competitive division this season.
The Falcons are led by quarterback Matt Ryan, who will surpass 4,000 passing yards if he throws for at least 198 on Sunday. He has 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions and has continued to solid rapport with receivers Julio Jones and Roddy White. Jones now leads all NFL receivers with 1,428 receiving yards after a 259-yard performance in Monday’s loss to Green Bay. However, Jones is questionable for Sunday with a hip injury, so Ryan may be without his top target. Jones has 93 receptions for 1,428 yards (15.4 yards per catch and 109.8 yards per game). He and White (59 receptions, 704 yards) each have six touchdowns, but no other Falcons have more than 32 receptions, 362 yards or three touchdowns. Depth is an issue, as the Falcons miss retired tight end Tony Gonzalez and a quality target out of the backfield.
In fact, the Atlanta backfield has lacked production in more ways than one, with Steven Jackson as the top rusher with just 652 yards. Atlanta’s rushing offense averages just 96.7 yards per game, 23rd in the league. The pressure will be on Ryan and the fifth-ranked air attack, that may very well match up well against Pittsburgh’s 23rd-ranked pass defense. The Steelers stop the run well, so expect Atlanta to throw early and often. Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense, when they have the ball, will probably throw quite a bit as well. Atlanta’s pass defense ranks dead last in the NFL, allowing 287.8 yards per game.
While they work hard to contain Roethlisberger and his band of receivers that includes one of the league’s best statistically in Antonio Brown, the Falcons must also be very concerned with RB Le’Veon Bell, who has run all over opposing defenses in the past three weeks. Bell has gained over 200 yards of total offense in each of the last three weeks, becoming only the second player ever to accomplish such a feat. The other was Walter Payton with Chicago in 1977, pretty good company for the second-year back.
All signs point to a battle of offensive firepower and, in such a game, the team that bends but does not break on defense will likely come out on top. Protecting the football will also be key, as turnovers and wasted possessions will prove very costly.
When: Sunday, December 14, 2014 – 1:00 pm EST
Where: Georgia Dome – Atlanta, GA
Watch: CBS (Greg Gumbel, Trent Green)
Spread: Steelers -2 (via Bovada)
Last Meeting: Pittsburgh defeated Atlanta 15-9 in 2010, at Heinz Field. The team’s most recent meeting in Atlanta was a 41-38 Falcons overtime win in 2006, when Michael Vick was the quarterback.
Keys for Pittsburgh:
1) Antonio Brown has not only caught just about everything thrown his way, but he has gotten big yards after the catch on many occasions. Brown should get plenty of looks against this poor secondary, so look for a big day between #84 and Big Ben.
2) Getting to Matt Ryan and forcing him to make some mistakes will, of course, bode well for the Steelers defense. Count on the front seven to try getting to Ryan, a pocket QB, and bring him down for sacks, fumbles, etc. If he has time, he will pick apart the Steelers struggling secondary.
3) On the Georgia Dome turf and in climate-controlled weather, Bell could have another huge game, using good footing and sharp cuts to shred the Atlanta defense that is allowing 26.3 points per game.
Keys for Atlanta:
1) With seemingly little hope for the Atlanta running game, head coach Mike Smith better hope Jones can go or it will be easier for the Steelers to cover White. Ike Taylor is doubtful for the Steelers with a shoulder injury, but with the way he has struggled lately, that may not be great news for the Falcons either.
2) As implied previously, Matt Ryan needs to be the ultimate leader for this team if they are to win Sunday and keep pace as an improbably division winner. He must stay on his feet, show pinpoint accuracy, and make a handful of the kinds of big plays this Steelers secondary has given up with alarming frequency this season.
3) The secondary for this team lacks big names and play-makers, which is bad news going up against a second-ranked passing game that features a two-time Super Bowl-winning QB, the AFC’s top receiver and Bell, who has nearly 700 yards receiving to go with his second-ranked rushing yards total. Somebody will need to step up, or the scoring will be endless for the road team.
Prediction: It is easy to be skeptical about this team as they head on the road to face an inferior opponent, against whom the Steelers have struggled against time and time again. This week, it should…SHOULD…be different. The Steelers match up extremely well against this bad defense and with Jones at less than 100 percent or perhaps not even playing at all, the Falcons are ripe for the picking. Pittsburgh rolls into Atlanta, damages the Falcons chances of winning their division, and creeps closer to the playoffs. Pittsburgh wins, 38-28.
