As the Pirates cross the half way point and finish up the last few games before the All Star break we can take a look back at what has been done, and a look forward to what is still left to be accomplished. The Pirates have flirted with legitimacy the last two seasons but never in the way they are doing now. They are beginning to get some national media attention, and nationally televised games. This last week they topped the ESPN power poll after a dominating week of baseball that saw them sweep two west coast American League teams on the road. As of right now the Pirates have the best winning percentage in baseball and are one from leading the entire major league in wins.
The Pirates have gotten to this point behind very good starting pitching, even better relief pitching and a below average offense that seems to come through with a few timely hits. There are two courses of action that can be taken here, one is to hold the course and hope that your winning formula holds up, the other is to make some deals and add a bat for right field, a bench upgrade, and maybe a veteran starting pitcher for down the stretch. If you stay with your current formula you are hoping for all of the core players to step up and get hot for a month or so and carry the team, and for no more pitchers to go down with injuries.
This is not as far fetched as it may seem, Pedro Alvarez did his part and stepped up in June, and after hitting in the low .200’s at the start of the month, and has hit his way in to a legitimate argument for a spot on the All Star team. Andrew Mccutchen is starting to hit better and has pulled his average over .300 for the first time since April, and Neil Walker has historically picked up his RBI totals as the season goes on. With the offensive improvement of Starling Marte in his first full season and with Jordy Mercer providing more offense at SS than Clint Barmes, they may have just enough offense to back up the strong pitching they have been getting from the starters and the bullpen.
When looking at the totality of the Pirates offense though hoping for a merry go round of guys getting hot and keeping you in competition may not be enough. The way I start looking at this is by looking at total team offense and defense, starting with the truest barometer of offensive production, runs scored. Right now the Pirates rank 11th in the NL out of 15 teams and have scored 337 runs, the league leader in runs scored is the Cardinals with 423. It does not take a master statistician to see that the 86 run differential over the first 85 games equals roughly a run a game difference between the two teams. At the same time the Reds and the Cards have the #3 and #4 pitching staffs in the league. The Pirates have the best pitching in the National League, but their competition in the NL Central is pretty good as well. And with the Reds and Cards being more complete teams, the Pirates just may be out gunned over the course of a long season.
The one saving grace of the Pirates is the strength of their bullpen, a strong bullpen keeps you in close games and can help cover for below average offense. It may be just enough to carry you while nursing a one run lead or keeping a tied game tied in late innings. The only issue here is how long can it last, the Pirates are 12th in the league in Quality Starts and just had their first complete game of the season on the 5th of July. Their bullpen is coming in early a lot, but it is not all the starting pitchers fault. The Pirates have played a lot of close games this season, which leads to the necessity to pinch hit for the pitcher earlier than if they were to have a comfortable lead. Combine that with the number of injuries over the last 30 days to key starters, it has caused some extra strain on the bullpen. The overall strain might not be as bad because the relief pitchers have been highly effective and staying pretty much on track by keeping pitch counts down, but a few injuries or loss of effectiveness from the guys they have been leaning on so heavily this year could be tragic.
So which course of action should be taken, when listening to Pirates fans you hear some very strong opinions, and from what I am hearing it seems as if the majority of fans want the team to stay put. Make no moves and hope for the best. Do not mess with what is working, seems to be the most popular saying that comes up on message boards and call in shows. My one question here is will these fans be so forgiving if no moves are made, and a few injuries and an extended slump later the Bucs end up squandering this golden opportunity. I am fairly confident in saying that the longest consecutive losing season streak in major professional sports will die this year, but with where the Pirates are now at game number 85, goals need to be higher than for just a winning season. A serious run needs to be made at the division, and not just hope to squeak in to the one game wild card.
As you look at the roster the biggest ares of weakness still remains the lack of production when facing left handed pitching, and RF. Right now the Bucs are highly vulnerable to the middle relief left handed specialist coming out of the opponents bullpen, Pedro is starting to hit left handed pitching better, including some clutch home runs in the last few weeks. But having Garret Jones, Neil Walker and Pedro all hitting in the middle of the lineup creates some mismatches in late inning high leverage situations when teams can bring in their left handed specialist. The answer to this is an upgrade in right field who can hit lefties to break up these LH bats. I think Travis Snider has a place on the team in a bench role possibly, but his production starting in RF has not been strong enough to keep him in the lineup on a daily basis. The return of Jose Tabata may help this situation, though I am not convinced in him being able to perform or stay healthy, inconsistency and injury problems have plagued him to this point in his career.
With several weeks to go before the deadline more names will pop up but if I see a position that needs an upgrade I would put RF at the top of the list. A little power off of the bench could be a huge help, and maybe an extra starting pitcher as an insurance policy against injury, or to prevent a guy from falling apart. (see James MacDonald 2012) But all things considered I do not think there is a Pirates fan in the country that is disappointed in where they are currently sitting.
But looking at the big picture some honest assessment needs to be done, this team close, so very close to breaking through. Will they take advantage of the lead they have built up now and do some small upgrades, or will they hope to keep having guys step up at key times. I am hoping for some minor upgrades, unless it is for a guaranteed super star that they plan to keep long term, to replace the future value of lost prospects. I am against dealing the future for success today. But with the right upgrades, and if they are willing to take on some salary they could have it today and in the future as well. Neal Huntington has a few busy weeks ahead of him and it should be fun to watch as a Pirates fan.
Photo Credit: Flickr.com/FuLinHyu
