I’ve heard rumblings afoot about the Steelers-Raiders tilt being “a trap game” due to the fact that the up-trending Steelers are favored by a mere four points on the road against an 0-2 Raider squad that has underperformed at home and on the road. Why such a tempting offer of minus 4? The prevailing logic suggests that if something is too good to be true, then it probably is. The Steelers laying four to make the post-Al Davis Raiders a home dog certainly meets that criteria.
All the old-timer Steelers faithful will tell you the Steelers don’t perform well when venturing to the left coast. Even one of the major Pittsburgh daily rags reported the following: Twice in the past six years, Steelers teams coming off Super Bowl victories were tripped up by terrible Raiders teams, perhaps a forewarning as the Steelers (1-1) prepare for the only game in the first half of the season in which they will be heavily favored to win. During their last visit to the so-called Black Hole in 2006, Ben Roethlisberger threw four interceptions only a week after receiving a concussion in Atlanta. The Raiders returned two for touchdowns, including a 100-yarder by Chris Carr, and upset the Steelers 20-13 – the last time that 2-14 team won all season.
I can hear the whispers throughout Allegheny County, “Vegas knows sumthin”. Frankly, I disagree and have some empirical data to support my position. The opening line at several sports-books out of Vegas had the Steelers −5 (I had them at −5.5). The line has moved to the Steelers−4 in spite of the fact that more than 80 percent of the betting public is favoring the Steelers. Vegas clearly has an opinion about this game and it doesn’t have anything to do with fading the Steelers.
While I generally make the contrarian play, allow me to offer five reasons to take the Steelers −4 on the road:
1. As I alluded to earlier, even though more than 80 percent of the betting public is strongly favoring the Steelers, the line is still moving in favor of the Steelers. This suggests that Vegas has a strong opinion favoring the Steelers as well.
2. The Raiders have lost their two starting corners, including former Pitt luminary Shawntae Spencer, and have resorted to trying out corners who were as of yesterday in street clothes. Expect the Raider secondary to be in disarray. I like the Steelers contingent of receivers in that match-up.
3. It looks like Todd Haley and Mike Tomlin have the Rooneys’ blessing to “let Ben be Ben.” Based on Big Ben’s performance in the Jets game, it looks like the Steelers Brain-Trust is going to allow Ben more than a little “creative license”.
4. Currently the line stands at Steelers −4. If you account for the 3 points for home field advantage that are “baked” into that number, that leaves the Steelers −1 straight up against the 2012 Raiders. What card-carrying member of the Steeler Nation wouldn’t like buying the Steelers at a discount?
5. The Steelers defense is less predictable due to the fact Coach LeBeau now has more than one defensive back that can cover man to manned Ryan Clark is developing into one of the premier Safeties in the league. The Steelers can now mix coverages more liberally than last year and not be forced to play two high safeties or bend but don’t break on third down. This also benefits the Steelers blitz package by offering more than just a zone blitz option.
Take the Steelers in spite of the fact that they are laying 4 points. Sometimes the public is right.
Article by T.C. Williams *This article is intended strictly for entertainment purposes.
Photo Credits: Steelersherewego.com
