Article by contributor: T. Hunter Williams
The Cincinnati Bengals travel to the setting of the great HBO series,The Wire, to take on the Baltimore Ravens in the 2012 Monday Night Football debut. Why they took that show off the air, I’ll never know; it’s all vampires, fairies and zombies anymore. But I digress.
As usual, I’m on the contrarian side of this game because everybody and their mother, including Stringer Bell, are taking the Ravens, even though they are laying seven. I know, I know, how could I justify going against Ole Man Ray, Ed Reed, Ngata, Rice et. al. on a Monday night at home?
Here are three reasons take the Bengals and the points tonight:
1. As I alluded to earlier, more than 75 percent of the public is favoring the Ravens tonight in Baltimore even with the home team giving seven points. This statistic indicates that the public has overvalued the Ravens. Historically, when the public is > 75 percent, the underdog has beaten the spread 57 percent of the time.
2. The Bengals and the Ravens are like an old married couple, they have seen each other naked way too many times. These two division rivals know every crevice of one another. These games are always close and coupled with being mutual openers, I like my chances with getting seven (at press time) points.
3. Similar to the logic I applied to last night’s Steelers-Broncos game (see my article: Steelers vs. Broncos: seven reasons to take the Broncos) and the loss of James Harrison, the Ravens defense will be negatively affected with the absence of Terrell Suggs. The 3-4 zone blitz defense is predicated on disguised pressure from anywhere near the box. While Haloti Ngata, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are superlative defenders, Suggs is the tip of the spear of this pressure scheme.
Additionally, their defense is getting thinner, kinda like Ole Man Ray’s bald spot.
While I like the Ravens at home, I love all those points I’m getting. Take the road dog and the points.
Enjoy the game!
Photo Credits: Bengals.com
