On the surface, it’s hard not to love the idea of adding Boston Red Sox pitcher Jon Lester to the Pirates rotation.
After all, we are talking about a pitcher with some impressive credentials. Two World Series titles, including a 3-0 record with a 0.43 ERA in those biggest of games. You can also add three All-Star selections, including a trip to Minneapolis earlier this month after another impressive first-half performance, highlighted by a paltry 2.53 ERA.
There’s no question Lester has been one of the top starters in the American League in 2014, and the Red Sox being willing to make him available to the highest suitor, makes Lester one of the more interesting trade options heading into Thursday’s 4 p.m. trade deadline.
Honestly, what’s not to love?
Though it’s hard not to find the idea of adding a top-flight pitcher to be intriguing, I for one, would have some concerns about making a deal for Lester.
For one, the Pirates have to decide the answer to a very important question above all others: Are the Pirates a World Series contender with the addition of Lester?
It can be argued that the National League is wide open, and that there is no truly dominant team.
However, just because it can be argued that many of the teams fighting for the NL pennant have flaws, can’t the same be said about the Pirates?
Even with Lester in the rotation, there are serious questions behind him. Gerrit Cole has not taken the next step many thought he would, falling short of being the top of the rotation pitcher many expected him to be. Francisco Liriano has been an incredible disappointment, and has two total wins all season.
Behind Cole and Liriano, Jeff Locke, Charlie Morton and Vance Worley have had some ups and downs, but none of those guys make you feel especially confident when you put them up against their peers in St. Louis, L.A. or Washington.
The bullpen has been solid, but you do have to wonder if guys like Jared Hughes, Justin Wilson and even Mark Melancon are going to be able to hold up in tough playoff series.
Also, do the Pirates have enough offensive depth and consistency to win in the playoffs? Adding Lester will not change the fact that the Pirates bench is lacking, and more importantly, 2013 NL home run leader Pedro Alvarez is having a horrible season. Without Alvarez playing at a much higher level, it’s hard to imagine the Pirates will have enough offensive firepower to win in the postseason.
This leads me to other important part of the equation when you consider a deal for player the caliber of Lester. Lester is essentially going to be a rental due to the fact that he will enter the free agent market after the season. Do you give up key pieces to rent a player who very likely won’t be enough to push the Pirates towards a championship?
The rumor mills have mentioned players like Josh Bell, Nick Kingham, Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows are potential trade pieces in a deal for Lester. In all four cases, these are top-flight prospects who have the potential to be key contributors to the Pirates long-term success in the coming years.
Sure, potential is a key word there, but all four of these players are widely regarded as top 100 prospects in the the game, and in the case of Bell, the player most talked about in a deal at this point, you are talking about a power hitting outfielder who could be a star for the Pirates. Many will immediately say that the Pirates are set in the outfield, but for how long?
What happens when McCutchen hits the free agency market in a few years? Having high-end talent like Bell could be key to lessening the blow of losing the reigning NL MVP. Plus, some believe, including yours truly, that Bell might be a prime candidate to move to first base, and that could mean the Pirates search for a power hitting first baseman could be over.
As for Kingham and Glasnow, you better be careful giving up potential top of the rotation starters for a three month rental. The adage you can never have enough quality arms means even more for cash strapped franchises like the Pirates.
I’m not saying I would not love adding Lester into the fold, just be sure you are aware of the costs.
