The Pitt Panthers finally have a home game as they look to build off a solid 3-1 start to the season.
It seems like forever since the Panthers were last at Heinz Field and they return home after a dominating defensive performance in a win against Virginia Tech.
Virginia makes the trip to Heinz Field and Mike London’s team is struggling at 1-3, but their three losses have come against UCLA, Notre Dame and Boise State.
Pitt will look to continue their momentum and if they can pull off a win it would not only mark the first 4-1 start for the Panthers since 2009, but it would give Pitt 700 all-time wins, which would make them just the 19th Bowl Subdivision team to achieve 700 all-time wins.
Who has the advantage?
Let’s take a look.
When: Saturday, October 10
Where: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA
Time: 12:30 pm EST
Watch: WTAE, ACC Network
Spread: Pitt (-9.5)
Series History:
Series Began: 1953
Series Overall: Pitt leads 4-3
ACC Series: Series tied 1-1
At Pittsburgh: Pitt leads 3-0
At Virginia: UVA leads 2-1
Neutral Sites: UVA leads 1-0 (UVA won 2003 Charlotte Bowl, 23-16)
Last Meeting: Oct. 4, 2014 (UVA won, 24-19)
Last Meeting at Pitt: Sept. 28, 2013 (Pitt won, 14-3)
Current Series Streak: UVA has won 1 (2014)
Longest Pitt Series Win Streak: 2 games (1953, 1955)
Longest UVA Series Win Streak: 1 game (3 times, 2003; ‘07; ‘14)
Largest Pitt Victory Margin: 26 points (26-0, 1953)
Largest UVA Victory Margin: 30 points (44-14, 2007)
Keys for Pitt (3-1, 1-0 ACC):
1. Get after it- After a sloppy opener from the Panthers defense, Pitt has been getting much better. That includes a dominating performance last week against Virginia Tech in which the Panthers allowed only 100 total yards (nine rushing), forced three turnovers and recorded seven sacks. The goal is to make Virginia quarterback Matt Johns uncomfortable for four quarters. Johns averages 30 pass attempts per game and I would expect the Panthers to come after him a ton. They have the nation’s No. 4 ranked defense and if they play anything like they did a week ago, they can set the tone.
2. Get Q going- After losing James Conner for the season in Week 1, this Panthers offense is not great. However the offense is good enough to win when they establish a ground game. Qadree Ollison has been pretty good replacing Conner. He is averaging 106 yards per game (29th in nation). It looks like the Panthers’ offense will go if Ollison goes. He rushed for just 17 yards in the loss at Iowa, though he did rush for 122 yards against Virginia Tech. If Pitt can move the chains on the ground, it will make throwing the ball much easier.
3. Get more from passing game- Speaking of throwing the ball, the Panthers have to get more from their quarterbacks. Whether it be Nate Peterman or Chad Voytik, the quarterbacks need to make some plays in the passing game. The Hoos have a decent secondary, which won’t make things easy, but Peterman not only needs to get Tyler Boyd the football, but needs to spread it around. I look for tight ends J.P. Holtz and Scott Orndoff to have big days. For a change the weather will be dry so throwing the football will be easier.
Keys for Virginia (1-3, 0-0):
1. Stop the run– It is very simple for the Hoos. Stop Ollison and make Pitt throw the football. The Panthers passing offense is actually worse than last year (No. 110 in nation). Even with Ollison’s success at times, Pitt ranks only No. 72 in rushing and the team ranks 115th in the nation in total offense. If Mike London’s team can force the Panthers into being one dimensional on offense, they will have a chance.
2. Limit Tyler Boyd- Wanting Pitt to throw the ball is one thing, but allowing Boyd to have a big day is a killer. If the Hoos commit one-on-one coverage to Boyd then they are going to lose. Look for them to limit Boyd’s touches, although the Panthers can find creative ways to get him the football. If they can limit Boyd, Pitt doesn’t spread the ball around enough on offense for anyone else to make much of an impact in the passing game.
3. Force Turnovers- For a struggling 1-3 football team, they simply can’t go on the road and make mistakes if they want to come away with a win. London’s team is prone to making mistakes, but they are also prone to not forcing any, Through four weeks, the Hoos defense has not forced a turnover, making them just one of two teams out of 127 Football Bowl Subdivision programs that haven’t forced a turnover. On the other side of the ball, Virginia is last in the nation in turnover margin per game (minus-2.25). They have turned the ball over nine times through four weeks. That is something that will have to change in a hurry.
Prediction: In typical years this is a total trap game for the Panthers. You have seen the story a thousand times. Get a big win one week. Come home to build on that win. Lay a big egg. I don’t think that will be the case this time though as for a change the Panthers look like a well-coached team and I think Pat Narduzzi will have Pitt ready to go. Even though the Hoos come in at 1-3, they shouldn’t be overlooked. There is still some talent on that Virginia team. But the Hoos struggle against aggressive defense and against power running teams and that is where Pitt will present problems. This isn’t a good matchup for the Hoos. Pitt improves to 4-1. Pitt 31, Virginia 17
Photo Credit: USA Today Sports
