After months of waiting to finally kick off the 2015 season, the Pittsburgh Steelers will face the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium with kickoff set for 8:30 tonight on NBC.
If history is any indication, the Steelers will have an uphill climb to come out with a victory. Since the NFL started having the defending Super Bowl champion host the “kickoff game” in 2004, the home team has a 9-2 record over that span.
Considering that the Steelers have struggled mightily traveling to Foxborough in recent years with a 2-5 record, (including 0-3 when Tom Brady has played) and you might get the impression that the cards are not exactly stacked the Steelers favor.
If the Steelers are going to find a way to get a win, it will start with Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense winning the matchup against the Patriots defense.
Even with Le’Veon Bell, Maurkice Pouncey and Martavis Bryant out tonight, the Steelers offense is capable of moving the ball and scoring points. Keep an eye on both Markus Wheaton and Heath Miller, as you can be certain that the Patriots defense will focus as many as three defenders in attempt to limit Antonio Brown.
With cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner departed, the Steelers will have a chance to take advantage of a secondary with some question marks heading into the season. Super Bowl hero Malcolm Brown and safety Devin McCourty are back and both are quality players.
Maybe even more important will be the Steelers ability to establish a running attack. Keeping the Pats offense off the field could help fuel an upset. DeAngelo Williams will get an opportunity to prove he’s still a viable running back, and a strong performance will put the Steelers in position to control time of possession.
The loss of defensive tackle Vince Wilfork looms big, but mainstays like Rob Ninkovich, Jerrod Mayo and Chandler Jones bring experience and production to a defense that largely does not get it’s due because it’s often overshadowed by Brady and the Patriots offense.
A Brady-led offense is difficult enough to stop under the best of circumstances, so considering the myriad of question marks surrounding the Steelers defense and it could be a very long night in Foxboro.
The Steelers must get pressure on Brady. The teams that have done so over the years have been the ones that have had the most success stopping the Pats vaunted passing attack. Left tackle Nate Solder has struggled recently and looked susceptible this preseason. Whether it’s Jarvis Jones or James Harrison, look for the Steelers to try to take advantage of this matchup.
Without question, limiting the effectiveness of the league’s top tight end, Rob Gronkowski, will key stopping the Patriots passing attack. Look for defensive coordinator Keith Butler gets creative and employ a number of different looks to deal with “Gronk.”
The Patriots lean heavily on Julian Edelman at receiver but both Aaron Dobson and Danny Amendola could be factors against the much-maligned Steelers secondary that is looking to prove their doubters wrong after a dreadful preseason.
James White will likely get the start for the suspended LeGarrette Blount after a solid preseason. It’s never smart to forget about Patriot running backs, and both White and backup Brandon Bolden are capable of racking up yards on a Steelers defense focused on the Pats passing game.
The Patriots boast one of the best kickers in the NFL in Steven Gostowski, while the Steelers counter with recently acquired Josh Scobee. If either team is in need of big kick late, they should be set.
Three keys to a Steeler win:
Pressure Brady/limit Gronk: The best way to get into Tom Brady’s head is to pressure him early and often–making him uncomfortable in the pocket and frustrate him. If the Steelers can mix up their blitzes and make Brady rush his throws, it will take pressure off the Steelers DB’s. Limiting Brady’s favorite target Rob Gronkowski is going to be key also. A similar performance to the three touchdown effort in 2013 and it could be a nightmare for the Steelers.
Mistake free football: Turnovers and penalties will absolutely crush any chances of an upset. Despite of a having to deal with a frenzied crowd and a tough opponent, the Steelers must limit mistakes that give the Patriots extra life or advantages.
Control the clock and mix it up on offense: We know all about Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown–Great players and they will need to contribute tonight for sure. However, it’s players like DeAngelo Williams and Markus Wheaton who could be difference makers, and their ability to make an impact could help the Steelers steal an early season win.
Prediction: Although a lot of people expect this game to be a blowout, the Steelers will make this a close game and play with a chip on their shoulder after hearing for way too long about how they have no shot. Ultimately the Steelers lose a close game late, but a little much deserved good fortune and this one could swing the other way–Patriots 32 Steelers 27
