Although this late-season matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens might not have the usual luster fans have grown accustomed to over the years, it does not mean the outcome won’t have major ramifications in the AFC playoff race.
Winners of five of their last six, the Steelers (9-5) have positioned themselves nicely for a post-season berth but need a victory to maintain their ever-so-slight lead over the New York Jets for the final AFC Wild Card spot. The Ravens (4-10) have little to play for other than the prospect of putting a serious damper on the playoff hopes of their most hated rival.
Will that be enough motivation for the Ravens to pull off the upset at home?
Let’s preview the game and make a prediction.
When: 1 pm
Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland
Watch: CBS
Spread: Steelers (-10)
Series History: Steelers lead 21-18
Last Meeting: 10/1/15–Ravens 23, Steelers 20 (OT)
Three keys to Steelers victory:
Jump on the Ravens early – What might make this game tricky is although the Ravens are banged up and a flat out bad football team, you have to think nothing would help salvage a lost season more than knocking off the Steelers with a playoff spot on the line.
That means the Steelers need to get out of the gates quickly and take away any hopes of pulling off an upset from a Ravens team missing key contributors like Joe Flacco, Steve Smith, Terrell Suggs and Justin Forsett. The Ravens have lost three straight and have the look of a team positioning themselves for early tee times and one of the top three picks in the upcoming NFL draft.
It’s worth noting that M&T Stadium should have their fair share of Steeler fans making the trip; all the more reason to get early momentum in this one.
Make life miserable for whoever is at QB – Since Joe Flacco was lost for the season with a torn ACL in a Week 11 win against the St. Louis Rams, the Ravens have lost three of four with Matt Schaub and Jimmy Clausen at QB. Add recently signed journeyman Ryan Mallett, and it’s possible the Ravens will have their third different quarterback in the fold in five games.
All three are expected to be available this week, and it’s still very much up in the air who will get the starting nod. Will all three be active? Will Ravens head coach John Harbaugh play multiple QB’s trying to find a hot hand? Regardless, the Steelers won’t be facing Tom Brady, so it will be crucial to put pressure on whoever is the signal call and force mistakes.
Gut feeling is Schaub will get the start but expect to see Mallett at some point. Mallett is known for having a great arm but not the best instincts or football IQ. He could be dangerous against a suspect Steelers secondary if he’s given time.
Get Williams rolling – The Ravens rushing defense is really struggling of late, giving up nearly 125 yards per game in three straight losses. This might mean DeAngelo Williams is in line for a big day, especially if the Steelers can jump out to an early lead where the Steelers might look to bleed the clock in the second half.
Three keys to Ravens victory:
Can anyone stop Ben and company? – The Ravens rank near the bottom of the league in pass defense this season, and you have to believe Ben Roethlisberger would love to continue to put up the gaudy numbers the Steelers passing game have racked up in recent weeks. Antonio Brown is having one of the greatest seasons by a receiver in NFL history, while Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton have been outstanding.
The Ravens must find a way to limit the damage. That’s not going to be easy and will start with consistent pressure from the Ravens pass rush. They need to get pressure from the Ravens front four, especially Elvis Dumervil. If they are forced to blitz, this could be a recipe for disaster considering the issues in the Ravens secondary.
Win turnover battle – You thought the Steelers secondary was bad? The Ravens have a grand total of four interceptions all season and have forced 11 turnovers for the year. Their turnover differential for the season is -15, so if you are looking for a key reason why this is a four-win team, look no further.
For one day, the Ravens must find a way to reverse this season-long issue and win the turnover battle. Hard to see the Ravens having any shot if they don’t.
Third-phase domination – Few teams are better when it comes to special teams than the Baltimore Ravens. The kicking tandem of Sam Koch and Justin Tucker might be the best in the NFL, and as usual, the Ravens are flat-out dangerous in the return game. Kaelin Clay has a 82-yard punt return TD while Jeremy Ross averages just under 30 yards on his kickoff returns.
Couple this with the wildly unpredictable and inconsistent coverage teams of the Steelers and this could be where the Ravens find an edge. If the game is close, the Ravens could use this advantage to pull off a big upset.
Prediction:
One game will likely cost the Steelers back to back AFC North titles and the second seed in the AFC. That was the painful overtime loss at home to the Ravens in Week 4. The difference in that game was pretty simple; no Roethlisberger and no Chris Boswell. This time around the Steelers have their franchise quarterback and a reliable kicker along with playing for their playoff lives. That should be more than enough for the Steelers to reel off their fourth straight win and remain one of the hottest teams in the NFL. Steelers 42 Ravens 15
