In case you missed it, many teams got better in the National League this offseason.
A lot better.
If we take an early look at the landscape as we stand in frigid January temperatures, we can see a caste system of sorts taking shape.
There are the perennial contenders out west. The San Francisco Giants got considerably better than they did last year by bringing in Jeff Samardzjia, Johnny Cueto and Denard Span. The Los Angeles Dodgers took a huge hit in losing Zack Greinke to the Arizona Diamondbacks, but the highest spending team in baseball always finds a way to be right there in the end. Those plucky D-Backs, emboldened by a new television deal, not only took the top prize of the offseason but further strengthened their rotation by picking up Shelby Miller from the Braves. That may just be all that’s needed for a team that finished 79-83 in 2015 despite having the best offense in baseball.
The National League east is home to the best rotation in baseball in the New York Mets. Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard harken back to the 1990s Atlanta Braves rotations of old despite their youth. The Washington Nationals lost Jordan Zimmermann and Span to free agency, but remain dangerous. With Bryce Harper anchoring a young and improving lineup and Max Scherzer in tow, the Nats figure to rebound with new manager Dusty Baker taking the reigns.
In the Pirates’ neck of the woods, the NL Central remains as tough as ever. The Chicago Cubs found a piece they desperately needed in Jason Heyward. Their lineup is young, talented and primed to take a step forward. The St. Louis Cardinals back-filled the loss of John Lackey by bringing in Mike Leake. The return of a healthy Adam Wainright also should be considered a win of sorts. Their lineup remains mostly unchanged sans Heyward, and is full of capable major league hitters.
For their part, the Pittsburgh Pirates have remained somewhat static. An offseason headlined by additions in the form of Ryan Vogelsong, Jon Niese and John Jaso has not done much to install confidence in fans.
The loss of Neil Walker did not help.
What is often lost is that the core of the Pirates remains largely intact. Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano anchor the rotation. Andrew McCutchen, Gregory Polanco and Starling Marte form the best outfield in baseball in the eyes of many. Jung Ho Kang is slated to return earlier than expected and has a good chance to pick up where he left off – learning the American game and learning it well. The bench is deep with multi-position players who are solid professionals. The bullpen, an already exquisitely dangerous weapon, has undergone a makeover. The Pirates may very well have the best velocity of any bullpen unit in the majors.
If one takes another look at the National League, measuring all additions and subtractions, it becomes easy to see a scenario in which the Pirates win 90-plus games.
And miss the playoffs.
In 2015, the National League Central was the best division in baseball. In carrying three of MLB’s top five recods, the Cubs, Cardinals and Pirates beat up on many many teams.
They also beat up on each other. Hard enough to the point that none of those three teams had an overwhelming W-L record against each other. Of course, the Pirates did not have a winning record against any NL Central club.
With all of the improvement I noted above, the Pirates will not have the luxury of having teams out of the division helping to pad their win totals. Compounded with clear rebuilds from the Brewers, Phillies, Braves and others, the tectonic shifts in the National League bring forth a truly top-heavy playing field in which five to six teams can truly be considered as contenders. Of course, the Pirates – still a good team by any measure – will be one of them, but this new paradigm actually increases the probability that the team could miss the playoffs for the first time in four years.
As an aside, how good did it feel to read that, Pirates fans?
It’s January. The wind is cold and we find ourselves in the nether-region in which the blistering pace of the off-season has slowed to a trickle. A single pitch that has any bearing on the 2016 MLB playoffs has yet to be thrown.
Many like to label teams as winners and losers of a particular off-season.
In the season that actually matters, the Pirates may find themselves with both labels.
