Sunday night’s contest between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts will not only be a prime time matchup, it will be a game with massive playoff implications.
While both teams share 6-5 records, the Colts are battling the red-hot Houston Texans for the AFC South divisional title. The team that misses out on the division will be forced to battle for one of the remaining Wild Card births in a crowded AFC playoff race where there are six teams still very much in the mix.
One of those teams is the Steelers, who are on the outside looking in for a playoff spot after a frustrating loss the Seattle Seahawks last week. A win would benefit the Steelers immensely in terms of possible future tiebreakers within the conference and of course, head to head with the Colts.
Let’s preview the game and make a prediction.
When: 8:25 p.m.
Where: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, Pa.
Watch: NBC
Spread: Pittsburgh (-6.5)
Series History: Steelers lead 21-6
Last regular season meeting: 10/26/14–Steelers 51 Colts 34
Three keys to Steelers victory:
Pressure Matt Hasselbeck — With Andrew Luck out Sunday, the Colts are forced to turn to 40-year-old backup Matt Hasselbeck for a third consecutive week. All the veteran has done since is push the Colts above .500 with consecutive wins including last week’s comeback victory over Atlanta Falcons.
Hasselbeck threw for more than 300 yards for the first time since 2011, and expect the Colts to look for similar results on Sunday. The Steelers secondary has struggled mightily much of the season, this game has the makings of a shootout, and the Colts running game comes in with serious injury and depth concerns.
All this points to plenty of passing, meaning the Steelers need to pressure Hasselbeck as much as they can. Although the Colts have been better in pass protection of late, they have given up 22 sacks this year. If Hasselbeck has time, the Steelers pass defense is in trouble.
Put the pedal to the metal on offense — Last year, the Steelers went nuts on offense against the Colts, Ben Roethlisberger had arguably the best game of his career throwing for 522 yards and six touchdowns in leading the Steelers to a blowout win. Well, the Colts defense stunk last year and nothing has changed this season.
Ranking near the bottom in just about every statistical category, the Colts defense has struggled all season, especially against the pass. Roethlisberger should be able to carve the Colts secondary up and look for Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant to have plenty of chances to make plays.
Limit the bad decisions, Ben — Plenty was made in regards to the horrific play of the Steelers pass defense and some of the decisions made by Mike Tomlin, but what was overlooked by many was the Steelers were -4 in turnover margin in their loss to Seattle. Two of those turnovers were Roethlisberger interceptions and in a game where it might be tempting to take shots downfield and gamble, stupid interceptions could doom the Steelers.
The Colts are tied for third in the NFL with 17 interceptions so Roethlisberger must be smart with the football and not chase the big play.
Three keys for Colts victory:
Big games for Hilton and Moncrief — T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief are dangerous weapons in the Colts passing game. Hilton has 51 catches for 819 yards and five TD’s while Moncrief’s line is 52-584-5, making them one of the better wide receiving tandems the Steelers will face this season. Couple that with the much-publicized struggles in the Steelers secondary, and this could be a key matchup the Colts might be able to exploit.
Get Frank Gore rolling — The Steelers are not the only team starting a running back on the wrong side of 30, as 32-year-old Frank Gore may not be the back he once was, but he’s been effective enough to amass 657 yards on the ground this season. Gore has been banged up of late, but he’s one of the toughest, most durable backs in the history of the game.
The Colts would love to get him going against a Steelers rush defense that has struggled at times. If Gore is effective, this will allow Hasselbeck to do what he’s a master at, the play action pass.
Keep Bryant from going off — As poor as the Colts pass defense has been this season, they must find a way to limit one of the two top receivers for the Steelers. Good luck trying to limit Brown with the group of DB’s at the Colts disposal, so it would be smart to do whatever they can to limit Bryant, especially in term of the big play. Brown will almost assuredly have a big game, if Bryant joins him, it’s going to be tough to get a win.
Prediction — Often when something is expected to happen in the NFL, the opposite does. The expectation is this game could end up a shootout, and I would tend to agree. Does that mean we see a tight to the vest game where 20 points wins? Not likely with these defenses. I do expect the Steelers to bounce back on that side of the ball enough to get a win however and this might be a game where the offense does the heavy lifting. Steelers 35 Colts 24
