Although the Steelers-Browns rivalry was once known as one of the very best in the NFL, it would be fair to say that much of the luster has worn off because of the one-sided dominance of the black and gold. In fact, since 1999, the Steelers have won 27 of the past 32 games and have a 13-1 record at Heinz Field against the Browns.
Cleveland has not done much this season to make anyone believe that dominance will end when the two clash this Sunday. The Browns are 2-7 and have lost four straight, while the 5-4 Steelers will look to improve their playoff position before heading into their bye week.
Let’s look at the keys to the game and make a prediction.
When: 1 p.m.
Where: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, Pa.
Watch: CBS
Spread: Steelers (-5.5)
Series History: Steelers lead 66-58
Last regular season meeting: 10/12/14–Browns 31, Steelers 10
Three keys to Steelers victory:
Put relentless pressure on the Cleveland quarterback(s) – Although we are still uncertain whether it will be Josh McCown or Johnny Manziel under center Sunday, we do know that the Browns pass protection is terrible. In fact, only the Seattle Seahawks have given up more sacks than the Browns total of 30 this season.
Rumors continue to swirl that it will indeed be Manziel getting the start and although he adds mobility to the position in comparison to McCown, his completion percentage this season is a dismal 51.8 percent, nearly 15 percent lower than McCown. In other words, the tradeoff is likely to work out well for the Steelers defense.
After getting shut out in the sack department against Oakland, the Steelers will be licking their chops against Cleveland. Facing either a banged up McCown or inexperienced (and immature) Manziel, sacks and pressure should go far towards a Steelers victory.
Limit Barnidge and Benjamin – Despite of a laundry list of shortcomings on the offensive side of the ball, tight end Gary Barnidge and wide receiver Travis Benjamin are productive weapons for the Browns. Barnidge has come out of nowhere to be one of the best pass catchers at his position and his 43 catches for more than 600 yards and six touchdowns have him within reach of his first Pro-Bowl selection.
Benjamin is a deep threat extraordinaire, and though held scoreless in his past six games, he is capable of breaking games open with his speed. With 42 catches and a team-leading 623 yards, Benjamin has proven he’s more than just a vertical threat and the Steelers pass defense must be aware of him all day.
The Steelers have struggled against quality tight ends and big-play receivers this year, so it will be key to limit Barnidge and Benjamin.
Win the turnover battle, limit costly penalties – With Landry Jones likely to get the nod Sunday, it will be vital to limit mistakes in his second NFL start. Jones three turnovers against the Chiefs shifted the balance of the game and contributed mightily to the loss. A similar performance against the Browns could be just what they need to believe that they can pull off the road upset.
Same notion with penalties. Cut down on the mistakes and penalties and the Steelers should cruise to a victory.
Three keys to Browns victory:
Get Duke Johnson rolling – The Browns have been downright awful running the ball — 31st in the league with an average of 82.3 yards per game awful. Considering it’s quite possible Manziel will be at quarterback, the need to find something from the ground attack is even more imperative.
Enter Duke Johnson, the eminently talented rookie back who is starting to see an increase role after being underutilized much of the season. Although much of his success has come as a pass catcher (35 catches for 369 yards, two TD’s) the Browns must get Johnson rolling in the ground game.
It’s been tough sledding thus far for Johnson considering he’s averaging a measly 3.0 yards per carry this season, but the Steelers have has some struggles stopping the run of late. If the Browns are somehow going to run the ball effectively, it likely happens with Johnson.
Stop the run – You thought the Browns struggled running the ball? They might be even worse defending it. The Browns rush defense is dead last in the league, giving up an eye-popping 147.6 yards a game. They are also tied for the league worst in runs allowed over 20 and 40 yards along with allowing nine rushing TD’s already this season.
The Browns simply can’t afford to allow the Steelers to run at will. DeAngelo Williams is questionable but comes off a monster game last week against the Raiders. If Williams is active, it could be another huge day for the veteran back. The Browns will have to find a way to do something they have not done all season, stop the run.
Get in Jones head – Memories of Jones less than stellar performance against the Chiefs are likely still fresh in his head. If the Browns plan on pulling off the upset, they need to plant the seed of doubt in Jones head and force mistakes. Jones is obviously a far cry from the caliber of quarterback that Roethlisberger is, so a poor game from the inexperienced signal called could make this game much closer than most expect.
Prediction – A lot of variables in this one. Who starts at quarterback for both teams? Is DeAngelo Williams good to go, or will it be Jordan Todman getting his first start with the Steelers? It could change the dynamics of the game, but not the outcome. The Steelers get a nice boost heading into the bye week. Steelers 36 Browns 9
